Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

One less Ka-52... Most likely the crew is toast as well.

From: https://twitter.com/albir2024

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682110960801140736

As said that is from early in the war, but what's notable is the helicopter was taken down with an anti-tank missile. I haven't seen Stugna footage in some time, the Ukrainians probably ran out of them last year.

As their national TV said: they focused on causing famine (it is not clear: "in Ukraine" or "in the World", particularly in Africa) to bargain about reducing sanctions. Nothing new, just terrorists. Like it was last winter season when they had been striking power plants every week and wanted Ukrainians to freeze.

It would be impossible to cause famine in Ukraine. They are basically using China and Africa as hostages.

Putin's hope is that the west will back off from giving aid to Ukraine if they threaten to starve the third world. It's the same old hostage trope I've seen on TV and movies many times where the hostage taker threatens to start shooting hostages if they don't get their way and they say in the process that it will be the fault of the people preventing them from getting their way. Flawed thinking, the people responsible are the ones making the threats, not the people preventing them from getting their way.

 

[MC3OZ]

Given that you think Ukraine are about to win, you will well know that Putin is in no position to threaten Poland let alone a Poland that is in NATO.

This is a tough guy reminding us how tough he is. Positioning himself to get a decent deal.

We are the mediators so we suggest a deal. Half the captured lands go back to Ukraine. Some sanctions are lifted with good behaviour.

Putin gets an off ramp. West unofficially never do very much business with them going forwards (and limit trade with those that are).

Once Russia becomes a decent democratic state then some reparations can be sought in exchange for all sanctions being lifted.

The threats to Poland were probably intended for domestic consumption, or a vain hope that escalating the war into a war with NATO would prevent blame for the eventual defeat.

Any actual attempt to invade Poland would end very badly, IMO Poland is easily able to deal with any threat, and everyone knows that.

Putin looks like what the is, someone who knows they are holding a weak hand, knows that everyone else knows, but making some desperate attempts at bluffing, because that is the only option he has.

 

[nativewolf]

Internal issues multiply in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682733374618718212

 

[madodel]

https://twitter.com/Tendar
(((Tendar)))
https://twitter.com/Tendar
@Tendar


Girkin’s friend and ally, Pavel Gubarev, who demanded the release of Igor Girkin, has also been arrested. When he got arrested the crowd was shouting “pozor”, shame. Source: https://t.me/uniannet/105671#Russia #Ukraine






0:08




12:44 PM · Jul 21, 2023
·

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682431327390294017

 

[navguy12]

From today’s Toronto Star:

“…Give Ukraine the weapons it needs now so that Vasyl Kurnitskyj will not have died in vain…”

Toronto Star ePaper

Toronto Star ePaper

torontostarreplica.pressreader.com

 

[wdolson]

The threats to Poland were probably intended for domestic consumption, or a vain hope that escalating the war into a war with NATO would prevent blame for the eventual defeat.

Any actual attempt to invade Poland would end very badly, IMO Poland is easily able to deal with any threat, and everyone knows that.

Putin looks like what the is, someone who knows they are holding a weak hand, knows that everyone else knows, but making some desperate attempts at bluffing, because that is the only option he has.

Putin has wanted to get NATO to cut Ukraine loose since the beginning of the war. Putin has tried everything and nothing works.

His best possibility is too long term for his needs, which is relying on the political 5th columnists he's been encouraging in a lot of western countries. There are a lot of countries having elections next year, including Russia (if Putin doesn't come up with an excuse to cancel them).

Internal issues multiply in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682733374618718212

Putin is in a difficult spot. There are a lot of people he does not trust now who are his best assets for conducting the war.

In the early going after the German invasion the Soviet army had a lot of setbacks and one major factor was Stalin's purging of the officer's corps in the late 30s.

 

[SageBrush]

Girkin’s friend and ally, Pavel Gubarev, who demanded the release of Igor Girkin, has also been arrested. When he got arrested the crowd was shouting “pozor”, shame.

Who/what was the crowd shaming ? The arrest, or Gubarev ?

 

[bo3bdar]

The purportedly leaked report for the crackdown on the "hurrah-patriots." Seems to be happening at least judging by Girkin arrest.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The arrest yesterday of Igor "Strelkov" Girkin may be the start of a crackdown on jingoistic "hurrah-patriots", according to an apparently leaked report which is said to have led to his detention. I...…

threadreaderapp.com

So no more bad news is to be allowed, or you stand to be arrested. No further examinations of the war effort in their media, "until after the victory."

Somebody is getting nervous that the populace itself is starting to notice this is a huge fiasco for RU, and thus needs a further crackdown. Because it was formerly jingoistic/nationalistic support from the 'patriots', but veered into criticism as the war failed.

 

[petit_bateau]

Fair points

West must focus on preparing Ukraine’s troops – or we will all pay the price | Jack Watling

A bureaucratic, peacetime approach to training and stockpiling among Zelenskiy’s allies is posing a threat to European security

www.theguardian.com

trenches etc

For historical comparison to battles of similar scale, the first Battle of El Alamein took 19 days, the second required twenty-six, the Battle of the Bulge was a savage forty-two days long, the colossal Battle of Kursk transpired over fifty-two days of monumental effort, while Allied success in Operation Overlord was achieved after eighty-four days. By that reckoning, the current Ukrainian offensive sits somewhere between the Bulge and Kursk campaigns, with relatively little to show for it so far. Meanwhile, there are tentative signs of a shift by Russian forces back to the offensive in other quarters. In short, the situation for Ukraine is objectively dire, though not completely hopeless. Why? The following essay is an attempt to explain an aspect of the larger answer to that question, which has been underdeveloped by punditry on the conflict.

Russian fortifications present an old problem for Ukraine

Russian defensive capabilities are rooted in an old but effective twentieth century military strategy.

engelsbergideas.com

 

[nativewolf]

Who/what was the crowd shaming ? The arrest, or Gubarev ?

Police, they were shouting at the police.

 

[nativewolf]

Fair points

West must focus on preparing Ukraine’s troops – or we will all pay the price | Jack Watling

A bureaucratic, peacetime approach to training and stockpiling among Zelenskiy’s allies is posing a threat to European security

www.theguardian.com

trenches etc

For historical comparison to battles of similar scale, the first Battle of El Alamein took 19 days, the second required twenty-six, the Battle of the Bulge was a savage forty-two days long, the colossal Battle of Kursk transpired over fifty-two days of monumental effort, while Allied success in Operation Overlord was achieved after eighty-four days. By that reckoning, the current Ukrainian offensive sits somewhere between the Bulge and Kursk campaigns, with relatively little to show for it so far. Meanwhile, there are tentative signs of a shift by Russian forces back to the offensive in other quarters. In short, the situation for Ukraine is objectively dire, though not completely hopeless. Why? The following essay is an attempt to explain an aspect of the larger answer to that question, which has been underdeveloped by punditry on the conflict.

Russian fortifications present an old problem for Ukraine

Russian defensive capabilities are rooted in an old but effective twentieth century military strategy.

engelsbergideas.com

It's the concern I've had since I tallied up western heavy armor and was shocked at how few tanks we could provide. That with the news that Surikov and the southern command had been in charge of the defense for a cruicial period between the withdrawal from Kherson and the recent coup. Said it many times, they know what they are about and are willing to let soldiers die (historically appropriate russian response). The only hope I have is that the southern force structure is so brittle that a breakthrough is possible if they can get through the mine belts. Realistically I don't know how many mines they had but clearly they've had a sufficient amount to cold cock Ukraine. We need tanks, several hundred Abrams and they need to be able to lose them all to support a real breakthrough.

For all these reasons I thought an attack through the north made so much more sense. It was still populated with Lapins idiots. The fortifications were fewer, the terrain favored infantry. Capturing Starbolisk seemed possible and would force a reaction at scale. Still surprised they didn't go that route.

 

[navguy12]

“…It turned out that the Russians had hit the pipeline bringing water to the city from the Dnipro River, 73km away. With the Russians in possession of the Soviet-era planning maps, the assumption was that the strike was deliberate…”

Inside Mykolaiv, the Ukrainian city where the Russians destroyed the water supply

A key pipeline to the city was hit during shelling in the early days of the invasion of Ukraine, but for now at least, people are finding ways to cope

www.theguardian.com

 

[X Fan]

Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia

The U.S. and Ukraine knew of the shortfalls, but Kyiv still launched its offensive.

www.wsj.com

Some highlights:

• Many in Washington believe concerns in the White House about the war’s impact on the campaign are prompting growing caution on the amount of support
• American hesitation contrasts with shifting views in Europe, where more leaders over recent months have come to believe that Ukraine must prevail in the conflict—and Russia must lose—to ensure the continent’s security.
• Criticizes UKR tactics
• Russian drones and attack helicopters, particularly Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” gunships, have proven particularly dangerous
• U.S. Defense Department analysts knew early this year that Ukraine’s front-line troops would struggle against RU air attacks

Biden's reticence (probably his influential staff) to provide aircraft and long range missiles are key reasons why the offensive will ultimately stall and fail.

 

[adiggs]

The purportedly leaked report for the crackdown on the "hurrah-patriots." Seems to be happening at least judging by Girkin arrest.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The arrest yesterday of Igor "Strelkov" Girkin may be the start of a crackdown on jingoistic "hurrah-patriots", according to an apparently leaked report which is said to have led to his detention. I...…

threadreaderapp.com

So no more bad news is to be allowed, or you stand to be arrested. No further examinations of the war effort in their media, "until after the victory."

Somebody is getting nervous that the populace itself is starting to notice this is a huge fiasco for RU, and thus needs a further crackdown. Because it was formerly jingoistic/nationalistic support from the 'patriots', but veered into criticism as the war failed.

As I was reading that thread I had the thought that the people that have been benefiting from "crazy" (I think my own definition involves finding more and more extreme variations of a position that enough people like) are finding that when crazy is what gets rewarded, then there is always more-crazy available for people to use to get rewarded.

Its a double edged blade with a slick grip.

 

[nativewolf]

The recent spate of attacks across Crimea..and not Luhansk and not Zap and not in the Donbass makes me think ..hmmm. Just makes one think

 

[navguy12]

From the international edition of the weekend NYT, a story of how folks in eastern Europe who used to identify with Russia no longer do so:

 

[UncaNed]

Not directly about Ukraine, but peripherally interesting...

 

[EVCollies]

The rail line was limited for a time, but the Russians tore out the damaged section and replaced it over the winter. I think it was back to full capacity. Zeihan has some interesting information, but I have to check what he says. I've found him talking out of his hat at times. Other times he is onto something.

Once again, Zeihan claims the rail was never returned to full capacity, only one line running and capable of passenger or light cargo only.

 

[Fred42]

Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia

The U.S. and Ukraine knew of the shortfalls, but Kyiv still launched its offensive.

www.wsj.com

Some highlights:

• Many in Washington believe concerns in the White House about the war’s impact on the campaign are prompting growing caution on the amount of support
• American hesitation contrasts with shifting views in Europe, where more leaders over recent months have come to believe that Ukraine must prevail in the conflict—and Russia must lose—to ensure the continent’s security.
• Criticizes UKR tactics
• Russian drones and attack helicopters, particularly Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” gunships, have proven particularly dangerous
• U.S. Defense Department analysts knew early this year that Ukraine’s front-line troops would struggle against RU air attacks

Biden's reticence (probably his influential staff) to provide aircraft and long range missiles are key reasons why the offensive will ultimately stall and fail.

Note the source: a Murdoch publication is saying Ukraine's failure will be Biden's fault.

 

[madodel]

Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia

The U.S. and Ukraine knew of the shortfalls, but Kyiv still launched its offensive.

www.wsj.com

Some highlights:

• Many in Washington believe concerns in the White House about the war’s impact on the campaign are prompting growing caution on the amount of support
• American hesitation contrasts with shifting views in Europe, where more leaders over recent months have come to believe that Ukraine must prevail in the conflict—and Russia must lose—to ensure the continent’s security.
• Criticizes UKR tactics
• Russian drones and attack helicopters, particularly Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” gunships, have proven particularly dangerous
• U.S. Defense Department analysts knew early this year that Ukraine’s front-line troops would struggle against RU air attacks

Biden's reticence (probably his influential staff) to provide aircraft and long range missiles are key reasons why the offensive will ultimately stall and fail.

The WSJ has a rightwing slant. We just had a post that the F16s will be in Ukraine by the end of the year. We've seen several posts of disinformation regarding the allied support for Ukraine. The only people a defeat of Ukraine helps are the extremist Pro-Putin faction. Otherwise this is a bipartisan issue in the US. So sowing doubt helps the anti-Ukraine side. The first point is just ludicrous that support for Ukraine in any way hurts Biden's campaign.