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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
The NY Times is reporting Putin has been signaling recently, via intermediaries, that he is serious about wanting a ceasefire.
Russian support for their war against Ukraine is described as broad but shallow, so the argument is that Putin could still spin the current status quo as a victory.
Still, few continue to doubt Putin would use a ceasefire to do little other than buy time to rebuild his war machine and return for more conquest in a few years.
The article suggests Putin is ok with the armistice at current lines, arguing he is progressively realizing how far he got over his head with multiple humiliations that undercut his initial ambitions. Among other things, he is allegedly no longer demanding Zelensky’s replacement.
Senior American officials say Ukrainian politicians would still not agree to any deal leaving Russia the Ukrainian territory they occupy as it stands now.
The NY Times noted while some analysts argue Putin would benefit from a long war and wants to delay any negotiations until at least the current Republican front-runner possibly takes the presidential nomination in 2024, that former Russian officials said Putin would still prefer a deal sooner given further uncertainties such as how the war might continue to play out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/...e_code=1.IU0._3WC.GsyS8fuca5fL&smid=url-share
Russian support for their war against Ukraine is described as broad but shallow, so the argument is that Putin could still spin the current status quo as a victory.
Still, few continue to doubt Putin would use a ceasefire to do little other than buy time to rebuild his war machine and return for more conquest in a few years.
The article suggests Putin is ok with the armistice at current lines, arguing he is progressively realizing how far he got over his head with multiple humiliations that undercut his initial ambitions. Among other things, he is allegedly no longer demanding Zelensky’s replacement.
Senior American officials say Ukrainian politicians would still not agree to any deal leaving Russia the Ukrainian territory they occupy as it stands now.
The NY Times noted while some analysts argue Putin would benefit from a long war and wants to delay any negotiations until at least the current Republican front-runner possibly takes the presidential nomination in 2024, that former Russian officials said Putin would still prefer a deal sooner given further uncertainties such as how the war might continue to play out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/...e_code=1.IU0._3WC.GsyS8fuca5fL&smid=url-share
navguy12
Active Member
I wouldn’t trust anything that Putin says, or implies, or signals.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
If Putin wants a cease fire, then that is the last thing UKR should want.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Agree. My take of the situation is that it shows Putin is progressively realizing he stepped in a pile of something bad.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm more inclined to think that Putin is manipulating the US Congress fools. I hate to say it, but I think he has a fair chance of success
navguy12
Active Member
BitJam
Active Member
New Answers about Prigozhin's Death, Who Was Behind it, and Why He Was Not Targeted Sooner
(from this article in the WSJ: How Putin's Right-Hand Man Took Out Prigozhin)
- Plot by Russian security chief Nikolai Patrushev
- A bomb was planted under a wing of the aircraft before takeoff
- Putin knew
- They waited so they could gather more information about the coup
The only real mystery here is why Prigozhin backed down. Even if he thought he couldn't take Moscow the second he marched there, he's done. He should have just held Rostov-on-don. That would have given him better chances for survival, and also would have been freaking awesome for Ukraine.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I've wondered about that too, but Prig is not telling.
I got the impression that Prig viewed himself as a Patriot, as loyal to Putin, and he was definitely outraged by the MOD destruction of his private army. So he gambled that he could take down his enemies in the MOD and not be treated as a traitor by the country and Putin.
I think he came close, but in the end Putin is not kind to princes that yank too hard on their leashes. A Merc army is always going to be viewed as a threat by the establishment, to be eliminated when no longer useful enough to justify the risk of them existing. Merc armies exist in Russia because they offer plausible deniability to the despots, allow command decisions that the regular army would not be inclined to follow, and because they can recruit in ways the regular army cannot, e.g. prisoners. But they are dangerous wild-cards, and in many ways they live on borrowed time.
The Russian power structure is a dog eat dog mafia of pure machiavellian palace intrigue. Prig yanked too hard, but perhaps more importantly he coalesced other mafia dons against him.
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Sociopaths don't care about friendship or loyalty. The immediate comparison I think of is Hitler ordering the death of his longtime associate/friend and loyal thug Ernst Röhm. For them all that matters is how much they benefit either way they decide. Prigozhin was just someone to use until he stood in the way and threatened power.
Best reason I've heard is due to threats against his family, but can't find any good source.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
It's just one masked Russian soldier, but he's looking into the camera and filming himself just like Prigozhin did. And the language is very similar. But Prig never attacked the Russian Dictator directly. This soldier does... Hopefully a big enough group of soldiers will be able to do something. And hopefully soon.
"*Beep* Putin, Shoigu, *beep*! What the *beep* is going on?" A Russian soldier is furious with Russian military leadership and doesn't understand what the war is for.
Not embedded because NSFW, but here's the link:
twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1738865889909326027?s=20
"*Beep* Putin, Shoigu, *beep*! What the *beep* is going on?" A Russian soldier is furious with Russian military leadership and doesn't understand what the war is for.
Not embedded because NSFW, but here's the link:
twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1738865889909326027?s=20
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The Polish blockade at the Medyka-checkpoint has ended. According to Ukrainian border guards, the farmers ended their strike this morning. Trucks in the direction of entry into Ukraine are processed in the usual manner.
twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1738858856652960098
twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1738858856652960098
adiggs
Well-Known Member
And its not like you need to be an evil warlord to predict what would happen once he broke ranks and started marching on Moscow.
Evil Overlord Mistakes:
1) When breaking away from your boss, get your family out of the way first.
2) If somehow you find a new detente / peace with the former boss, for heaven's sake don't put yourself under their control in any way. Keep an eye out for assassins - they'll be coming.
Looks like Russia didn’t learn from their expensive x3 Su-34 shot down a few days ago:
X Fan
Active Member
PR move to get more Ukr funding? Plus. Western Intelligence services haven't exactly been accurate lately either.
In any event, Ru attacking Europe is just not possible given the depletion of his forces since the invasion.
While I agree it doesn't seem possible, never underestimate the amoral determination of a psychopath. Personally I think if Ukraine continues hollowing out the Russian military, Finland or Poland will just waltz in and take over the Kremlin and Russia might have a government that actually doesn't kill off its own people for once, but who knows.
As to western intelligence estimate accuracy, it was US intelligence that was screaming that Russia was going to invade Ukraine 2 years ago, which were denied as ridiculous and a political stunt by people everywhere. And those warnings were literally dead on.
