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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Unless Russians are going to fly those Su-35s, it's going to take a while to train Iranians to fly them. There are a lot of differences between a 1970s vintage American fighter and a more modern Russian one.

Observations of coms chatter from the attack launched over the weekend, it became obvious that there were a few well trained missile crews and a lot of poorly trained crews. Iran does have some well educated people, but they probably have a limited pool of people who can be trained to operate complex systems like aircraft and air defense systems. Unless Russians are going to man their new AD systems it will probably be a while until new crews are trained up to use them.

That is if Russia is actually planning to do this and it isn't just another smoke and mirrors thing. Which I think it more likely.
 
From today's Guardian:

Johnson is preparing a fourth measure that would include various Republican-preferred national security priorities, such as a plan to seize some Russian assets in US banks to help fund Ukraine, and another to turn the economic aid for Ukraine into loans. The New York Post has meanwhile published Republican-aligned polling that shows a majority of Republican voters in electorates crucial to the November election back US assistance for Ukraine’s fight back against the Russian invasion.

 
Unfortunately it seems the Russian Dictator is on to something...

Allegedly:

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780513263437877345

I've seen a few of these in videos recently.
Pros:
  • Might offer slightly better protection against FPV drones with small munitions
  • When parked up next to outhouses, buildings etc. offers some degree of disguise
Cons:
  • Turret/barrel only able to point forwards
  • Much reduced visibility for driver/crew
  • More visible when out in the open
  • Makes the RUS army even more of a laughing stock than before
 
Unfortunately it seems the Russian Dictator is on to something...

Allegedly:

twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780513263437877345


In WWII there were light, medium, and heavy tanks. Light tanks proved to be highly vulnerable and of limited value from fairly early in the war and they moved to limited roles such as recon (where speed was an advantage) or supporting light troops like air mobile. After the war advancements in engine technology gradually merged the heavy and medium tanks together into the main battle tank.

By 1942 onward medium tanks were the bulk of most armies tank forces (Japan never developed much in the way of armor and their armor was essentially light armor throughout the war, but they had little need for a large mobile armored force). The role of the heavy tank was basically to effect breakthroughs, and occasionally counter heavy tanks from the other side. The Germans and Russians put the biggest guns they could on their heavy tanks from late 1942 onward, but early in the war Soviet heavy tanks had the same gun as their mainstay medium tank, the 76mm. But by late 1944 all the Soviet medium and heavy tanks were being built with 85mm guns with the IS-2 in 1945 finally getting a bigger gun than the T-34 when it got a 122mm gun.

The western allies made do with upgraded Shermans for assault tanks. There was the M4 Jumbo which had extra armor welded on and the same gun as the regular Sherman. It was slower than the standard Sherman and a fuel hog, plus the extra weight caused a lot of extra wear on the drivetrain, but it was good enough for the job.

The British upgunned some Shermans with their 17 pounder (77mm) gun that they started building in 1943. Theses were the Sherman Firefly tanks that were used to hit German choke points and deal with Germany's heavier armor. The gun was on par with the 75mm deployed on the Panther tanks.

The Russians have gone back to the assault tank concept trying to improve the survivability of a few tanks to spearhead assaults. Being mostly wood construction at least on the outside, the Ukrainians could start using drones with incendiary bombs to set fire to the wood shell. I don't know what the Russians are putting underneath the wooden shell.
 
Couldn't they have thought about this a little sooner?...

Allegedly:

The German government has taken a new initiative to provide Ukraine with extra air defense systems.

"We need to take another serious look at whether there are other systems in the world that can be made available to Ukraine and delivered immediately."


twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780591833417986273

 
House bill for Ukraine:
Excerpts: ...
For an additional amount for ‘‘Procurement, Defense-Wide’’, $46,780,000, to remain available until September 30, 2026, to respond to the situation in Ukraine and for related expenses...
Page 14: has text about insuring that weapons reach the intended recipients.
Page 34:
SEC. 505. (a) TRANSFER OF LONG-RANGE ATACMS REQUIRED.—As soon as practicable after the date of enactment of this Act, the President shall transfer long range Army Tactical Missile Systems to the Government of Ukraine to assist the Government of Ukraine in defending itself and achieving victory against the Russian Federation.
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
Another :

  • can hide the fact Russia is resorting to ancient T54 tanks.

My partner came across something about why the Russians are not restoring the T-72s. Apparently there are some brass and copper parts in the T-72 that are unique and long out of production. All the T-72s had those parts stripped by profiteers and sold on the scrap metal market. So the Russians have a fleet of T-72s that can't be brought back into service.

Corruption in the Russian army is probably worth a couple of divisions of Ukrainians in the amount of damage they have done.

Couldn't they have thought about this a little sooner?...

Allegedly:

The German government has taken a new initiative to provide Ukraine with extra air defense systems.

"We need to take another serious look at whether there are other systems in the world that can be made available to Ukraine and delivered immediately."


twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1780591833417986273


There are a lot of countries in the world that have plenty of armaments but the chances of war are pretty small. If somebody could talk Turkey and Greece into each giving up a little bit of their old equipment that would go a long ways towards helping Ukraine. Both countries keep a lot of equipment in reserve in case they go to war with one another, but if both gave up an equal amount they would stay on par with one another.

I would think South America would be a ripe hunting ground for equipment. That continent has been at peace for a long time. Many of the countries either were recently or are currently wrecks internally, but externally they don't fight one another.

It would be very helpful if Israel would give up some of the back lot of their reserve. They have enough Merkavas that their old M60 based tanks will never be used again, but they hold onto them. The Israeli M60s are heavily modified and are probably the most capable M60 variant. The advantage of fielding M60 variants is that spare parts for the mechanical parts are widely available. It was one of the world's most common tanks for decades.


Well, there it is. Concrete steps towards a vote. I don't understand the logic in going about it this way. It seems to me that he runs the risk of losing the things his party actually wants.

We'll see if it makes it to the floor for a vote. Johnson is in a major bind between a rock and a hard place. His bosses in Florida and Moscow really do not want to see a Ukraine bill come to the floor, but he is getting pressure from his most vulnerable members. Someone posted yesterday that a poll conducted by a Republican polling firm found that in the most vulnerable districts there is over 60% support for Ukraine and the support for the oldest cadre was even higher. The over 65 vote is the most reliable Republican voting block.

He's been playing Lucy and the football to try and stave off having to do anything concrete. We'll see what happens. Again, I won't believe it's real until something that is acceptable lands on Biden's desk to sign.

U.S. House Bill orders biden to provide ATACMS to Ukraine.

I think Biden had already said the US would be providing them when the US had the money to send them. The primary reason the US hasn't sent them until now is that the long range ATACMS are out of production with little ability to put them back into production. The Army has been working on an all new missile to replace the ATACMS but it isn't available yet. When the war started there was a program to modify an existing missile to fill the ATACMS role and they had a successful test last year. They have probably been modifying the missiles since and the ATACMS have now become available.
 
Vote on Ukraine aid bill might come Saturday.

In other news, several articles say both Biden and house democrats indicate they support the Ukraine aid bill.
 
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Vote on Ukraine aid bill might come Saturday.

In other news, several articles say both Biden and house democrats indicate they support the Ukraine aid bill.

Anyone who knows how Washington works has said that any reasonable Ukraine bill that made it to the floor of the House would pass easily. There were rumors that Johnson was going to put a bill up that had amendments that the Democrats couldn't accept just to kill the bill and claim the Democrats voted against Ukraine funding. I wouldn't put it past him. A careful reading of any bill put forwards needs to be done.
 
MIke Johnson gave a news conference today where he did a 180 on Ukraine. He mentioned that there was a recent intel briefing he got that convinced him that we need to get aid to Ukraine. I don't know what it was, but I saw a snippet of the news conference and he seemed shaken. He mentioned that his son is starting at the naval academy this fall (Annapolis) in connection with the talk of getting aid to Ukraine.

Here is the full news conference
Speaker Johnson Says He's "Deeply Disappointed" After Senate Adjourns Mayorkas Impeachment Trial

The snippet was on Threads and I can't share that here.

It looks like something scared him enough to actually take some action. I hope.

Edit: It looks like the snippet is public
Ron Filipkowski (@ronaldfilipkowski) on Threads