Second Model 3 or wait for Model Y?

[SureValla]

I've had my Model 3 LR for about 2 months now and I love it (previous non-owner). When I put my deposit in back in 2016 on day 1 I also made a second deposit a few days later on 4/4 with the intention of also getting one for my wife.

However, I am not sure now if we should get another model 3 when the second one comes up to configure or if we should wait for the Y.

Factors affecting our decision:
- Current car setup: Her car is fine so there's no immediate need in the next 5 years for another car so waiting for the Y will not be an issue. That being said she is insanely jealous of my 3.
- Cargo room: Also not a concern although having more would be nice.
- Small SUV vs Sedan: Wife would prefer a small SUV
- Price: This is where things get interesting. A second Model 3 appears on paper to me to be $17,250 less!

Price Breakdown:
Model 3 LR AWD = 49,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 5,000 (AWD) + 1,000 (delivery) - 3,000 (CT Rebate) - 3,750 (Fed Credit) - 11,000 (current trade in) = $38,750
Model Y LR AWD = 59,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 1,000 (delivery) - 5,000 (trade in 3 years from now) = $56,000

Price conclusion: No rebates for Model Y and lower trade in value for her car in 3 years result in a delta of $17,250!

Tech: Model Y will probably employ superior tech and have the latest Tesla features over the Model 3

What would you do in our situation? Am I missing anything I should be considering?

 

[Buddy]

I'd go for a used X or S no question

 

[SureValla]

I'd go for a used X or S no question

In our opinion the S is inferior to the 3 so that's out.
A used X, if any were even available, is going to exceed $56,000 and have far worse range. Plus this car is too big.

 

[mekberg]

Happy wife, happy life.

Go for the 3. Worst case you trade in for a Y down the road.

 

[eSpiritIV]

I think they will want to have the Model Y easy to manufacturer with similar parts to Model 3, so i would not bet that Model Y will be any much better in tech than the 3. They may have their supplier parts issues figured out, and use less for their wiring harnesses etc. But tech? I think the next big things will only come to the X and S in terms of a refresh.

 

[skitown]

In our opinion the S is inferior to the 3 so that's out.
A used X, if any were even available, is going to exceed $56,000 and have far worse range. Plus this car is too big.

We have a Model S and are getting an AWD Model 3 as well. We use our Model S like an SUV as it has so much utility; which for us a Model 3 cannot replace since it's a true sedan. We will keep using our Model S in this manner until Tesla entices us to upgrade to a Y, X or Pickup. But if you don't need the utility, I would do another Model 3 now, because life is short and who knows when the Y will actually end up in your driveway.

 

[Moderatefan]

But tech?

There's a bit of concern that M3 hardware won't support FSD. By the time Y is out, they should figure it out and install adequate hardware.
No guarantee that if you don't prepay FSD they won't raise the price to account for new hardware.

 

[KJD]

Price Breakdown:
Model 3 LR AWD = 49,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 5,000 (AWD) + 1,000 (delivery) - 3,000 (CT Rebate) - 3,750 (Fed Credit) - 11,000 (current trade in) = $38,750
Model Y LR AWD = 59,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 1,000 (delivery) - 5,000 (trade in 3 years from now) = $56,000

How did you determine that the Model Y would be 10,000 more than a comparable Model 3 ? As far as I can tell they have not published any target pricing on Model Y.

 

[WattsHappening]

We're in a similar situation. Only difference is the wife has already absconded with our first Mode 3. We are going to configure a second when our number comes up. I can't stand driving an ICE vehicle now. We would prefer the Y but I'm not willing to wait 3 + more years. As @skitown said, life is short. We've decided the trunk space in the Model 3 is large enough for our golf outings and ski trips.

 

[SureValla]

How did you determine that the Model Y would be 10,000 more than a comparable Model 3 ? As far as I can tell they have not published any target pricing on Model Y.

A guess based on the S and X delta

 

[animorph]

I would think Model 3 trade-in, or at least private party sales, would hold up pretty well until Tesla catches up with demand. I'd consider getting a 3 now and a Y later if you still want it. Otherwise it seems like a long wait.

 

[Uncle Paul]

If it was me, and I could get a second Model 3, and also get the tax breaks, it would be a no brainer. You might even get the full $7,500 Fed tax credit.

AWD would be fantastic in the Winter months.

Her current trade in will be worth much less in a few years, especially if the market for ICE vehicles drops.

 

[KJD]

A guess based on the S and X delta

Yea OK that is a fair guess. However one of the reasons the X costs more than the S is those falcon wing doors. With all the problems they have had producing those on the X maybe they will give the Y conventional doors. This would lower the costs of the Y and increase reliability. Anyhow one can hope.

 

[jamnmon66]

We're in a similar situation. I put down two deposits on day 1. We're waiting on a few answers from our accountant. Unless she has bad news for us, we're definitely getting a second Model 3. The car is just so good & we're constantly fighting over it. On paper it's mine but she always seems to have it.

EDIT: My wife always has it... not the accountant. LOL

 

[Zaxxon]

Your calculations ding the 'wait' side by accounting for further depreciation on your current vehicle, but do not ding the 'get the 3 soon' side since its depreciation is not included. So the delta is less than your conclusion suggests. I also think the price delta between similar 3 and Y will be more like $5k, but I've learned never to assume Tesla will go cheap.

Were I in your shoes, I'd probably wait since your wife sounds like her ultimate preference would be the Y. And share your 3 in the meantime. That said, if she likes your 3 that much, I don't think you'd be wrong to go for it, either. What does she want to do?

 

[gtmotor]

We are in the same boat. Decided to wait for the AWD Y since it didn't make much sense to own two of the exact same car.

 

[Aellinsar]

Personally, in a second car I want to easily be able to put 2 dogs in the back, or some bags of mulch. so I would wait for the Y.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

One thing I look forward to about the tax credit expiring is that the "wait or buy" questions will become _really_ easy to answer.

But for now: probably wait.

 

[ForeverFree]

I've had my Model 3 LR for about 2 months now and I love it (previous non-owner). When I put my deposit in back in 2016 on day 1 I also made a second deposit a few days later on 4/4 with the intention of also getting one for my wife.

However, I am not sure now if we should get another model 3 when the second one comes up to configure or if we should wait for the Y.

Factors affecting our decision:
- Current car setup: Her car is fine so there's no immediate need in the next 5 years for another car so waiting for the Y will not be an issue. That being said she is insanely jealous of my 3.
- Cargo room: Also not a concern although having more would be nice.
- Small SUV vs Sedan: Wife would prefer a small SUV
- Price: This is where things get interesting. A second Model 3 appears on paper to me to be $17,250 less!

Price Breakdown:
Model 3 LR AWD = 49,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 5,000 (AWD) + 1,000 (delivery) - 3,000 (CT Rebate) - 3,750 (Fed Credit) - 11,000 (current trade in) = $38,750
Model Y LR AWD = 59,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 1,000 (delivery) - 5,000 (trade in 3 years from now) = $56,000

Price conclusion: No rebates for Model Y and lower trade in value for her car in 3 years result in a delta of $17,250!

Tech: Model Y will probably employ superior tech and have the latest Tesla features over the Model 3

What would you do in our situation? Am I missing anything I should be considering?

If you're going to factor in 3 years of depreciation on your wife's current car ($6000), you'd also have to factor in three years depreciation on a new Model 3 (about $20,000).

 

[SureValla]

If you're going to factor in 3 years of depreciation on your wife's current car ($6000), you'd also have to factor in three years depreciation on a new Model 3 (about $20,000).

not sure I follow, its second Model 3 now or wait for model Y later. Money out of my pocket is what I calculated above so depreciation of the 3 shouldn't factor in right?