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Second Model 3 or wait for Model Y?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by SureValla, May 21, 2018.

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Second Model 3 or Wait for Model Y?

  1. Model 3 LR AWD

    10 vote(s)
    22.2%
  2. Model Y

    35 vote(s)
    77.8%
  1. SureValla

    SureValla Member

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    I've had my Model 3 LR for about 2 months now and I love it (previous non-owner). When I put my deposit in back in 2016 on day 1 I also made a second deposit a few days later on 4/4 with the intention of also getting one for my wife.

    However, I am not sure now if we should get another model 3 when the second one comes up to configure or if we should wait for the Y.

    Factors affecting our decision:
    - Current car setup: Her car is fine so there's no immediate need in the next 5 years for another car so waiting for the Y will not be an issue. That being said she is insanely jealous of my 3.
    - Cargo room: Also not a concern although having more would be nice.
    - Small SUV vs Sedan: Wife would prefer a small SUV
    - Price: This is where things get interesting. A second Model 3 appears on paper to me to be $17,250 less!

    Price Breakdown:
    Model 3 LR AWD = 49,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 5,000 (AWD) + 1,000 (delivery) - 3,000 (CT Rebate) - 3,750 (Fed Credit) - 11,000 (current trade in) = $38,750
    Model Y LR AWD = 59,000 + 1,000 (paint) + 1,000 (delivery) - 5,000 (trade in 3 years from now) = $56,000

    Price conclusion: No rebates for Model Y and lower trade in value for her car in 3 years result in a delta of $17,250!

    Tech: Model Y will probably employ superior tech and have the latest Tesla features over the Model 3

    What would you do in our situation? Am I missing anything I should be considering?
     
  2. Buddy

    Buddy Member

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    I'd go for a used X or S no question
     
    • Like x 1
  3. SureValla

    SureValla Member

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    In our opinion the S is inferior to the 3 so that's out.
    A used X, if any were even available, is going to exceed $56,000 and have far worse range. Plus this car is too big.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. mekberg

    mekberg Member

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    Happy wife, happy life.

    Go for the 3. Worst case you trade in for a Y down the road.
     
    • Like x 3
  5. eSpiritIV

    eSpiritIV Member

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    I think they will want to have the Model Y easy to manufacturer with similar parts to Model 3, so i would not bet that Model Y will be any much better in tech than the 3. They may have their supplier parts issues figured out, and use less for their wiring harnesses etc. But tech? I think the next big things will only come to the X and S in terms of a refresh.
     
  6. skitown

    skitown Member

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    We have a Model S and are getting an AWD Model 3 as well. We use our Model S like an SUV as it has so much utility; which for us a Model 3 cannot replace since it's a true sedan. We will keep using our Model S in this manner until Tesla entices us to upgrade to a Y, X or Pickup. But if you don't need the utility, I would do another Model 3 now, because life is short and who knows when the Y will actually end up in your driveway.
     
  7. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    There's a bit of concern that M3 hardware won't support FSD. By the time Y is out, they should figure it out and install adequate hardware.
    No guarantee that if you don't prepay FSD they won't raise the price to account for new hardware.
     
  8. KJD

    KJD Supporting Member

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    How did you determine that the Model Y would be 10,000 more than a comparable Model 3 ? As far as I can tell they have not published any target pricing on Model Y.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. sroh

    sroh Member

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    We're in a similar situation. Only difference is the wife has already absconded with our first Mode 3. We are going to configure a second when our number comes up. I can't stand driving an ICE vehicle now. We would prefer the Y but I'm not willing to wait 3 + more years. As @skitown said, life is short. We've decided the trunk space in the Model 3 is large enough for our golf outings and ski trips.
     
    • Funny x 1
  10. SureValla

    SureValla Member

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    A guess based on the S and X delta
     
  11. animorph

    animorph Active Member

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    I would think Model 3 trade-in, or at least private party sales, would hold up pretty well until Tesla catches up with demand. I'd consider getting a 3 now and a Y later if you still want it. Otherwise it seems like a long wait.
     
  12. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Active Member

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    If it was me, and I could get a second Model 3, and also get the tax breaks, it would be a no brainer. You might even get the full $7,500 Fed tax credit.

    AWD would be fantastic in the Winter months.

    Her current trade in will be worth much less in a few years, especially if the market for ICE vehicles drops.
     
  13. KJD

    KJD Supporting Member

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    Yea OK that is a fair guess. However one of the reasons the X costs more than the S is those falcon wing doors. With all the problems they have had producing those on the X maybe they will give the Y conventional doors. This would lower the costs of the Y and increase reliability. Anyhow one can hope.
     
  14. jamnmon66

    jamnmon66 Member

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    We're in a similar situation. I put down two deposits on day 1. We're waiting on a few answers from our accountant. Unless she has bad news for us, we're definitely getting a second Model 3. The car is just so good & we're constantly fighting over it. On paper it's mine but she always seems to have it. :cool:

    EDIT: My wife always has it... not the accountant. LOL
     
    • Funny x 2
  15. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    Your calculations ding the 'wait' side by accounting for further depreciation on your current vehicle, but do not ding the 'get the 3 soon' side since its depreciation is not included. So the delta is less than your conclusion suggests. I also think the price delta between similar 3 and Y will be more like $5k, but I've learned never to assume Tesla will go cheap.

    Were I in your shoes, I'd probably wait since your wife sounds like her ultimate preference would be the Y. And share your 3 in the meantime. That said, if she likes your 3 that much, I don't think you'd be wrong to go for it, either. What does she want to do?
     
    • Like x 1
  16. gtmotor

    gtmotor Member

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    We are in the same boat. Decided to wait for the AWD Y since it didn't make much sense to own two of the exact same car.
     
    • Like x 2
  17. Aellinsar

    Aellinsar Member

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    Personally, in a second car I want to easily be able to put 2 dogs in the back, or some bags of mulch. so I would wait for the Y.
     
  18. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    One thing I look forward to about the tax credit expiring is that the "wait or buy" questions will become _really_ easy to answer.

    But for now: probably wait.
     
  19. ForeverFree

    ForeverFree Supporting Member

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    If you're going to factor in 3 years of depreciation on your wife's current car ($6000), you'd also have to factor in three years depreciation on a new Model 3 (about $20,000).
     
  20. SureValla

    SureValla Member

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    not sure I follow, its second Model 3 now or wait for model Y later. Money out of my pocket is what I calculated above so depreciation of the 3 shouldn't factor in right?
     

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