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I wouldn’t trust it I used it for about 250 miles yesterday - and wow it was scary with EAP aborting lane cha he’s them slamming on breaks … high beam blinding cars just in front for no reason.

Oh and the autopilot doesn’t seem to know what the navigation is doing, trying to pull out back into the motor way when pulling off onto slip lane
Comparing what you have on your UK car to the just released version of FSD in the US is like comparing windows 98 to the latest Mac OS X. It's just not valid.

Yes the current AP and EAP have problems, but you do have to distinguish that from what is possible with 18 months newer development, the largest collection of driving/vision training data and the 7th largest AI GPU cluster that exists.

Saying EAP is no good in terms of an FSD discussion is like your parents complainng their android is rubbish after they bought a land fill phone. It's just not comparable to your s20 or iPhone.
 
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Comparing what you have on your UK car to the just released version of FSD in the US is like comparing windows 98 to the latest Mac OS X. It's just not valid.

Yes the current AP and EAP have problems, but you do have to distinguish that from what is possible with 18 months newer development, the largest collection of driving/vision training data and the 7th largest AI GPU cluster that exists.

Saying EAP is no good in terms of an FSD discussion is like your parents complainng their android is rubbish after they bought a land fill phone. It's just not comparable to your s20 or iPhone.
Why train the AI on a different data set, than the market were discussing - the US has different lane widths, surfaces and markings etc etc, Christ the thing even with FSD can’t park to save its life… comparing anything to the US to the UK market is like comparing windows to Mac OS - different targets
 
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Why train the AI on a different data set, than the market were discussing - the US has different lane widths, surfaces and markings etc etc, Christ the thing even with FSD can’t park to save its life… comparing anything to the US to the UK market is like comparing windows to Mac OS - different targets
Yes.

So comparing the EAP on your UK car, largely coded 18 months ago doesn't really add much to what might be possible in another country or here in the future?
 
Comparing what you have on your UK car to the just released version of FSD in the US is like comparing windows 98 to the latest Mac OS X. It's just not valid.

Our original X was built in Dec 2016, literally a month after the Tesla Mobileye split. The AP software development between than and now is clear and obvious.

Elon is a risk taker, that's why Tesla exist, its why Space X now makes NASA look silly.

Is it a 100% certain FSD achievable, now or in the near future. Who knows, but unless you try you never will know.
 
what am I reading.jpg

Is it a 100% certain FSD achievable
 
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I’ll go even further; full self driving will never happen in any of our lifetimes. We might get it on motorways but not anywhere else

Judging by the "quality" of so many drivers on the road these days, that don't know what lane to be in, get in the left lanes to turn right at roundabouts, are too busy looking at their phones to pay attention to what is infront of them etc etc (the list is endless)

Honestly, I think you could release FSD today on every Tesla on the road and probably not even notice the difference lol
 
Which is why Tesla needs a huge amount of data input from the FSD Beta drivers, I think 10gig+ data uploads are not uncommon.

But here in the UK there is pretty much zero chance of that happening thanks to legislation, the US version is getting there. I still don't think there is any other company with anything else close in capability that is released to the general public. However as you say, in the UK currently ZERO chance of seeing anything close :(.

Just looking at the thumbnail you can tell how easy FSD has it in the US. That would almost qualify for motorway status in the UK.. no parked cars, at least twice as wide as the average road, completely straight. And also hardly any traffic (which seems to be a common theme with the FSD videos, like they're all being filmed at 6am on sunday morning).

If that's what FSD is being 'trained' on (although greentheonly has said the training is only for object recognition, and all the decsions are traditional coding). then it'll remain a curiosity.
 
Cycling aside, to reiterate something I said in another thread, I would temper expectations about FSD being useful in the UK any time soon. Yes, it may be legally allowed, but I doubt Tesla's implementation is going to be functional over here in the near future.

My understanding of machine learning (as an IT consultant, but not an ML specialist) is that you present a neural network with a massive set of input data, and a set of 'correctness' criteria. It then undergoes a process similar to natural selection, where it tries various configurations of that neural net and retains those configurations that score higher on the correctness metric, and discards those that score lower.

You end up with a system that no-one understands - you can't look at a neural net and 'read the code' like you can with something programmed by humans. It's almost like a chaotic or complex system, in that semantically different inputs will yield wildly differently results. So getting FSD to work over here won't be as simple as flipping the X-axis, because UK junctions don't work like US ones.

I've not seen any evidence that Tesla are prioritising learning non-North American road systems. If anything at all, there's evidence to the contrary in that EAP works better (anecdotally) on the continent than in the UK, and after having recently completed a 3,000 mile European road trip, I'm part of the anecdata.

I'd love FSD to be a useful thing. I'd hate for people to spend money on it, expecting a result any time soon.
You sound like a techie who has not kept up with the progress made in the machine learning and AI domain in the last few years. There are tools available to test and evaluate learnt models and data. Regarding comparison with humans, humans do a chaotic job with driving too, so the perceived human brain superiority isn't making much difference on the roads.
 
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Have you watched the videos? It's better than a learner, so unless you are really unwell this seems a very strong position?
Is that the bar we’re setting, better than a learner? 😂

I have watched some of the videos of 10.69 and they’re irrelevant to tight UK streets. How will it work in a meeting situation? How will it handle county roads?

There’s a discussion recently about auto parking doesn’t work, it’s laughable to think it can’t do that but it’ll magically drive itself.
 
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Have you watched the videos? It's better than a learner, so unless you are really unwell this seems a very strong position?
Watching videos of what’s possible the latest beta software in the USA is neither relevant nor helpful to what is happening here. All Tesla’s development seems geared to the US market. Europe, and most especially the RHD market in the UK is being completely ignored. US are preparing the latest OS X, Europe is left with Windows 98 and the UK with Windows 3.0. What happens in the US cannot be seamlessly transferred here.

What significant developments have there been in FSD here in the 3 years I’ve owned my car? None that I can think of. Nor do I expect any developments anytime soon.
 
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Is that the bar we’re setting, better than a learner? 😂
No, but after you stalled the car when you were learning, was that it? Just give up? I said that as evidence of trajectory towards competent. OTOH, I did see a guy yesterday attempt to turn into the 3rd lane of a 2 lane junction and its oncoming traffic. So in some situations FSD is already safer than some drivers.

I have watched some of the videos of 10.69 and they’re irrelevant to tight UK streets. How will it work in a meeting situation? How will it handle county roads?

There’s a discussion recently about auto parking doesn’t work, it’s laughable to think it can’t do that but it’ll magically drive itself.

Lots of people can't reverse park either, that's why the assistance exists, yet those people all navigate day to day driving fine too? Different skills can be developed to different levels at different times?

I do agree with all the criticisms people level at the system, both as it exists in the UK, and as shown in the FSD videos from the US. I just strongly believe that those criticisms have to exist within a caveat of 'right now'. It is getting better, they haven't hit a hardware limit, yet and there is clear evidence that when they concentrate on an area it rapidly improves. Latest release notes have a 44% lower error rate on getting the right lanes. That is a non-trivial leap in an area that we have to acknowledge was a problem area. Previous releases have seen similar 20%+ leaps in other areas.

You can't keep adding 20% improvements on top of its learner level capabilities, project that into the future and not say that eventually it will work.
 
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Although Chuck's three videos yesterday showed significant improvement in the UPLTs, there was still one of them when if he hadn't belted the accelerator to get out of the fast lane he might well have been sideswiped by a fast car.
I don't think we'll ever get what we paid for, frankly - just a pretty good driver aid in a few years, if the cars last that long.
Let's face it: there's no testing going on with autonomous driving, just with beta and that's testing autopilot WITH driver, which is one hell of a lot different to autonomy.
 
Watching videos of what’s possible the latest beta software in the USA is neither relevant nor helpful to what is happening here. All Tesla’s development seems geared to the US market. Europe, and most especially the RHD market in the UK is being completely ignored. US are preparing the latest OS X, Europe is left with Windows 98 and the UK with Windows 3.0. What happens in the US cannot be seamlessly transferred here.

Not sure I agree. Take for example the twitter thread I linked above about moving to voxels which are maintained with vectors through occlusions. That is a coding/AI/Vision technique that absolutely transfers to other countries. Yes, chunks of the neural nets will need re-training using new video, but the auto labeller system does a lot of the heavy lifting for that and your car is currently feeding them video for when they are ready to do that training. A training run takes a couple of days.

So you see different looking roads and say thats impossible. I see building blocks that can be applied generally with out too much hassle. First attempt won't be perfect, but once the US is cracked I suspect you see per country rollout happening pretty quickly. Remember, the more cars out there, the quicker it is for them to get training data and fix any problems, and in the EU we are currently buying every bit of hardware they send us.

What significant developments have there been in FSD here in the 3 years I’ve owned my car? None that I can think of. Nor do I expect any developments anytime soon.

Remembering that our FSD is a totally different software stack:
  • During the first lockdown I drove Inverness to Edinburgh a number of times (authorised travel). The A9 was empty and I did most of the trip (mix of single track A road and duel carriageway and motorway) on AP (I don't have EAP or FSD atm). On that empty road AP still tried to kill me 3 or 4 times as it was really just too complex. Same trip couple of weeks ago there wasn't a single unexpected disengagement. It did everything it was supposed to do rather well.
  • In 3 years they have re-done the visualisation a couple of times showing an increase in object identification
  • They added traffic light recognition, people with FSD will stop for them (I think?) and go on green. We all apparently have chime on green now (not experienced it yet)
  • in the last month they added what my son calls a new texture pack, again adding more detail to the world around the car showing that it continues to understand more.
  • It now understands many of the painted signs on the road - STOP's, bike lane, direction arrows etc.
  • Pingpong between the lines is solved
  • Added overhead speed sign recognition
  • phantom braking is largely solved
  • Auto windscreen wipers have been solved (at least for me) by a vision solution
And that is just off the top of my head. I'm sure there is a better list somewhere online. Its not the giant feature commits that convince me it will work, its the little changes that mean the existing features work better that show that the direction of travel is working.
 
If that's what FSD is being 'trained' on (although greentheonly has said the training is only for object recognition, and all the decsions are traditional coding). then it'll remain a curiosity.

....and how do you purpose RHD cars get 'trained' if legislation essentially forever bans Tesla from deploying anything close to FSD Beta on UK roads?