Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[bkp_duke]

Sounds like China is a different story. But even then they can build all they want - the trick is selling them. My local TSLA store's overflow lot is packed with brand new shiny Teslas. Tesla's online website shows US demand isn't keeping up with production even with a $3750 discount. And if it continues some expensive new factories will suck money from the coffers instead of plunking money into.

Bull *sugar*. And I'm calling a spade a spade.

Go to ev-cpo.com - you can see EVERY last Tesla there is for sale by Tesla there (that doesn't already have a buyer).

As of this post, that's 2,167 in the USA (about 20-30% of those are used - i.e. off-lease or trade-ins).

You do understand that at Tesla's current run-rate, that's like . . . . (does some math) . . . about 4 DAYS of production for just Fremont?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Anybody playing the FOMC announcement today? IIRC several people did a good job of playing both sides of the announcement, selling CCs on the upswing and CSPs on the subsequent drop during or after the speech. I’m not really interested in the stress, but instead have rolled my straddle down and back in to a strangle and straddle. Now at 12/30 -p160s, -c160s, -c170s. Enough leftover cash to fill out another 100 sh lot, but trying to decide if I should wait. Put in a buy for $150.19 just in case we test that 150 put wall, but still….. FOMO. Will we retest @Yoona ?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Bull *sugar*. And I'm calling a spade a spade.

Go to ev-cpo.com - you can see EVERY last Tesla there is for sale by Tesla there (that doesn't already have a buyer).

As of this post, that's 2,167 in the USA (about 20-30% of those are used - i.e. off-lease or trade-ins).

You do understand that at Tesla's current run-rate, that's like . . . . (does some math) . . . about 4 DAYS of production for just Fremont?

As much as I would like to believe this, apparently there are inventory vehicles that are hidden from public viewing. So I'm not so sure that ev-cpo.com lists every inventory vehicle available.

 

[bkp_duke]

As much as I would like to believe this, apparently there are inventory vehicles that are hidden from public viewing. So I'm not so sure that ev-cpo.com lists every inventory vehicle available.

Tesla buyers guides, worldwide inventory and support for owners is another tracker. The advantage to this one is it will show you how long a car has been for sale.

Typical Used times for Tesla are 3-7 days on market. With a few of the "undesirables" getting to 10-14 days (i.e. history of previous accident, etc.).

I follow both those sites closely, there is a SLIGHT increase in both (about 500 more cars than historically), and sell times are 2-3 days higher, but nothing at all that supports what the poster asserted.



The "hidden inventory" vehicles do pop up periodically. They are usually hidden because they are in-sale, and for whatever reason the sale falls through (usually buyer financing, but sometimes a car is rejected).

 

[Yoona]

Anybody playing the FOMC announcement today? IIRC several people did a good job of playing both sides of the announcement, selling CCs on the upswing and CSPs on the subsequent drop during or after the speech. I’m not really interested in the stress, but instead have rolled my straddle down and back in to a strangle and straddle. Now at 12/30 -p160s, -c160s, -c170s. Enough leftover cash to fill out another 100 sh lot, but trying to decide if I should wait. Put in a buy for $150.19 just in case we test that 150 put wall, but still….. FOMO. Will we retest @Yoona ?
View attachment 884959

i would ask myself - what is the goal of opening new positions just hours pre-FOMC and why take that unnecessary risk?

 

[juanmedina]

I want to see more of this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603074786208391171

 

[kabin]

I should have more opportunity to buy shares in the days to come. As most probably predicted:

Covid cases explode in Beijing leaving city streets empty and daily life disrupted | CNN

 

[MikeC]

TSLA strangely seems to be correlated to the 10-year today (and inversely correlated to the rest of the market). Seems odd when the NASDAQ is green and TSLA is red, but feels like we're showing some strength down here.

 

[dc_h]

Bull *sugar*. And I'm calling a spade a spade.

Go to ev-cpo.com - you can see EVERY last Tesla there is for sale by Tesla there (that doesn't already have a buyer).

As of this post, that's 2,167 in the USA (about 20-30% of those are used - i.e. off-lease or trade-ins).

You do understand that at Tesla's current run-rate, that's like . . . . (does some math) . . . about 4 DAYS of production for just Fremont?

Our local lot has a lot of cars too. Spoke to one of the guys and he said they are selling fast. A couple of cancellations and some complaining about sh*tposting. Sounded like the lot was mostly staging, but they did have inventory, which hasn't happened in years. It is part more production, but seems like demand increase that has followed prior production increases may not be happening. Could be wait for 7500 discount too.

That said, I'll continue selling CC's. I foolishly sold a BPS at the start of the week on bad fake news and then twitter created real bad news. I'll probably have to pay to roll it and hope we get a bounce soon. Elon posted that "macros" are affecting Tesla, implying deliveries are not going to match Q3 earnings rhetoric.

 

[EVNow]

Could be wait for 7500 discount too.

It would be surprising if a lot of people didn't opt to wait for 7,500 credit.

ps :

Go to ev-cpo.com - you can see EVERY last Tesla there is for sale by Tesla there (that doesn't already have a buyer).

No idea when a car goes into inventory. If the assigned person is not finalizing, Tesla is giving them just 48 hrs to finalize. Otherwise they are put on hold / cancelled and Tesla offers the car to the next person etc.

I do expect some inventory build up - but not a lot.

 

[mongo]

It would be surprising if a lot of people didn't opt to wait for 7,500 credit.

How are these people getting the $3,750 critical materials credit?

 

[Max Plaid]

Any ideas what’s the play why they continue to choose to ignore. Are things that bad internally that they’re afraid to say anything?

Well he has been clamouring for a share buyback, for which I personally don't see the point, I'd rather see the money kept as a safety-net or deployed on new production/models

But given his position, they should meet him behind the scenes, just give him "the time of day"

As for Tesla IR/BoD, obviously they have no magic-wand to make things all OK, but we miss some proactivity in the communications, not a new thing, of course, but using, for instance, the official Tesla Twitter account to put info out there would be welcome right now. I don't know why they don't, would cost peanuts and help dispel a lot of the FUD

Anyway, we're all getting a bit too chatty here, supposed to be options-talk...

I still have 18x -p190 in play for this week, after ~180 close last Friday I never would have imagined we'd be trading in the 150's this... they're 100% under water, received +$15 for them, currently trading for $30. I've put a sell order for $15, in the vain hope that we get a violent FOMC rally... failing that I'll leave them as late as I can in the week, then roll down to 15x -p180 and straddle with some calls. I can take a small loss there to get a better strike and less contracts. Then the idea would be to do another roll to 12/30, then let them exercise if necessary and have some cheaper trading shares going into the P&D

 

[EVNow]

How are these people getting the $3,750 critical materials credit?

Yes, nobody knows. The final rules have not come out - and the prevailing notion is that rules will give some years of leeway on some of those domestic supply rules. (ps : foreign governments / OEMs are lobbying too)

Either way - most people don't know its all still up in the air or they wait in any case.

As I posted earlier, there are two groups who probably won't wait
- Those with earlier bookings before big price increases
- Those making enough money to not qualify (unless they understand they can get the tax credit passed down if they lease)

But I've to say ... I'm surprised at the still strong demand. Given high interest rates, high prices and economic uncertainty .... I'd have expected softening of demand (like it undoubtedly has happened in China).

 

[Yoona]

Double Top detected just now ~160

 

[EVNow]

Any ideas / suggestions / not-advice? 12/30 or 1/6? Or heck - do you have a case for rolling all the way to post-ER expiration?

12/30 takes out P&D risk. Heck, you might even see the SP bounce a little in anticipation.

 

[UltradoomY]

I'm playing this again - STO P $160's now - let it rip with the wire and sell calls at the top before Speech - Close out P's when Selling calls
Close out calls when it starts down on him talking.
So far 3 for 3 this year with this method.
6 minutes and of course this is not financial advice.

Edit.... This did not work this time.... lol

 

[SebastienBonny]

Double Top detected just now ~160

View attachment 885017

4 times now?

 

[TexasGator]

Howdy wanted to check this.....

depending on how fidelity closes bps this seems *relatively* low risk?

Sell jan25 250p buy Jan25 130p

7.5k credit.

If worst case gets assigned at SP of 120...assuming stock not free falling (hopefully a good assumption but...)

Sell stock for 12k
Sell 130p for 4k

So max loss 1.5k vs gain of 7.5k

Am I thinking about this correctly? Fidelity doesn't close the whole spread - just assigns the short put right?

Thanks

 

[kabin]

So far daddy Powell wasn't so friendly.

 

[EVNow]

So max loss 1.5k vs gain of 7.5k

Doesn't look right. What does Fidelity show as max loss/gain ?