in hindsight, i should have paid more attention to this 3 weeks ago when 150 was unthinkablei think someone is playing for a 150+ bottom?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Hey MAYBE it's just me so feel free to help me rationalize my feelings but when I see certain faces on the internet these days like Putin. I just want to slap it or punch it. A real punchable face. Elon is slowly making this list. Am I wrong here? His actions seem more selfish and for his own self interest than for humanity.
He tells everyone on twitter to think long term but the truth is actions speak louder than words.
Why? At this point the TSLA share price has very little, if any, impact on Tesla's mission. Tesla has essentially no debt, plenty of cash, and positive FCF...
Well Tesla hasn't actually achieved anything yet. There isn't enough saturation in the marketplace and we haven't moved enough people to sustainable energy. FSD isn't done either. Don't even get me started about the joke of a robot.
Elon has already moved onto something else and is putting more time and money into that. His actions speak louder than his words and right now his actions are telling me he likes doing this Twitter thing more and is tired of Tesla/Confident Tesla can keep selling cars without him. If this is the case Tesla will go down forever as what everyone said it would be, just another car company.
Come on there is no way to accurately predict that. The only way would have been to get into the mind of possibly the most controversial entrepreneur of our times.
Sure we are close to 150 but might not even get there. And you would have missed your buy point even if you knew Elon was going to sell.
I think @MP3Mike is saying that whether Tesla has actually achieved anything yet, whatever achievements that Tesla will eventually provide (or not) are no longer dependent on the share price. The Tesla business, at this moment, seems to have grown beyond the need (and maybe even the ability) to make quality use of additional financing. Whether its in the form of debt or in the form of additional capital sales, Tesla doesn't need it. Profit and cash flow provides all of the capability to invest that Tesla needs to pursue the mission.
5 years ago, manipulating the share price could have killed the company by denying required funding.
Today, manipulating the share price is just a way to make money - Tesla is still Tesla whether shares are $1 or $10,000.
Need to add in sale from first line:
443,796,628+1,820,804−423,622,432=21,995,000
Yeah, but 7,500 was brought up in this thread. I'll stop now.Wrong thread, but Tesla batteries are made and assembled in the USA. 3 & Y will quality for 7500.
Here's every electric vehicle that qualifies for the current US federal tax credit
As sales of electric vehicles continue to surge, many new and prospective customers have questions about qualifying for federal tax...electrek.co
From your link, the bold is the hang up for the full $7,500 (you may be thinking of the advanced manufacturing credit of up to $45/kWh for cell and module production):
- In order to get the full credit, the EV must be assembled in North America and…
- The majority of battery components need to come from North America and…
- A certain percentage of “critical minerals” must come form North America or countries with free trade agreements with the US
Last month, after Elon sold, it was a big drop >6%, but mainly because it followed the marco (SPY dropped almost 2% that date too), then rose up the following day after having CPI numbers.
TA wise - TSLA should have at least a small relief rally as it was beaten up real bad in the last couple of days. But the marco might not align, Fed was quite hawkish today. TSLA daily is not real oversold yet and still have room to fall a bit further.
perhaps 150 is the bottom? we haven't even touched it
- last week fri, before EM's selling, nearly everyone else was red but TSLA was #2 in S&P 500 and #2 in Nasdaq 100, Low=173.36 Close=179.05
- this week mon, EM selling, Low=167.52 Close=167.82
- this week tue, CPI and EM selling, Low=156.91 Close=160.95
- today wed, FOMC and EM selling, Low=155.31 Close=156.80
- MM and Feds and EM threw everything but the kitchen sink this week, lowest=155.31
- no put walls taller than p150 the next few weeks
Thanks. I didn't think the Fed was that hawkish today. Powell said what he says every time - they aren't going to cut rates until they know inflation is under control, and he acknowledged that inflation is coming down nicely now. And for ALL of next year, they are only planning another 0.75 total.
Thanks for reminding me that EM also ruined the good momentum we had last Friday.
I have a feeling that we might close the week at somewhere very close to my -p153.33, right above the big put wall at 150, finger cross.
@mongo also pointed out in the other thread that he only needed to report Monday’s sale today but reporting all 3 at once on the last day of sale has historically been his pattern. Also the round number of 21,995,000 shares sold.
I totally agree with his conclusion on 3 days selling pattern, it was exact the same with Elon's selling on April, August and November.
Note for myself, next time if I notice any unusual volume that makes the stock go divergence with the marco, remember there will be very likely another 2 days like that, so that I can take appropriate actions.
Note to self: Next time you notice something strange either
a. Keep your hedges open for the rest of that week.
b. Double down on your hedges.
It would be silly to sell now especially if we think he finally has what he needs to run Twitter even in a down macro environment. But I must admit it was funny to see him repeatedly talk about margin in the midst of the selling this week.
I’m like 50% certain he was signaling that he was going to sell shares.
Which brings me back to buybacks. Let’s look at the events since last week.
1. Elon says he has an urgent board matter on Friday 12/10
2. Presumably they discussed buybacks and I don’t know if this would be considered collusion but is it possible they discussed him selling more TSLA shares.
3. Elon sells
4. Board announces buybacks starting this week?
5. Elon recently started following Larry on Twitter. Larry has a history of managing share buybacks and is likely coming back to the board to start such a program at Tesla.
6. Although share buybacks are a great idea if the board knows Q4 will suck it makes no sense to announce them now. It just comes across as very desperate. Instead announce bad results, keep aggressive guidance and do buybacks in January 2023.
I was thinking along those lines with Elon selling now clearing the way for the buyback.
I don’t see how Elon can talk about an epic Q4 before selling and then there not be an epic Q4, without very reasonable questions about stock manipulation occurring.
And these are the last two days to buy back without paying the new taxes in 2023. It would be great timing to do it this week.
Ive been telling myself this since 400, 350, 300, 250, 200, then 180. Does it matter anymore?
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