Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

Daily SPY update
[TSLA 190 W opt.volume rising, W max pain rising ->192.5][SPY stable, no manipulation needed]
[SP likely to hold around 190 after maybe closing the gap today, to run a bit higher into the weekly close tomorrow or friday.]

I myself bought back 3/5 of sold shares now (+190, +191, +192) 2/5 I hope to pickup @ 189.20, so again making a nice (DCA) profit again
[Edit] 189.20 almost reached, so I moved up to buy $189.77 right after the $189.44 dip of today(close enough to call it a gap-close) So back on this mornings stock count again [/Edit]
Beware of MACRO-turns, USA banking issues far from over!

 

[Max Plaid]

Bizarre price action ahead of a new quarterly record...

 

[Max Plaid]

Daily SPY update
[TSLA 190 W opt.volume rising, W max pain rising ->192.5][SPY stable, no manipulation needed]
[SP likely to hold around 190 after maybe closing the gap today, to run a bit higher into the weekly close tomorrow or friday.]

I myself bought back 3/5 of sold shares now (+190, +191, +192) 2/5 I hope to pickup @ 189.20, so again making a nice (DCA) profit again
[Edit] 189.20 almost reached, so I moved up to buy $189.77 right after the $189.44 dip of today(close enough to call it a gap-close) So back on this mornings stock count again [/Edit]
Beware of MACRO-turns, USA banking issues far from over!

Seems to me that TSLA did better when the banks were failing - everyone was piling into tech, now they rotate back into banks...

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Rolled 20 x p175 3/31 to 20 x p180 4/6 for a net premium of $2.65. Yesterday I could have done the same without raising the strike, but I didn't pull the trigger because it was only Tuesday. I just now realized we have one less trading day next week. I'm feeling positive about P&D, so I think the 5 point higher strike is not a big issue (not advice).

Edit: hmm, that was some bad timing. Who pulled the plug?

should not be a problem, higher delta, the moment you rolled, so will end up to be a nice catch. But as I said earlier Macro can kill -p. In which case be ready to sell stock accordingly above 180, to catch

 

[vikings123]

Bizarre price action ahead of a new quarterly record...

I'm not seeing anything on option flow and volume is pretty high. I don't think Elon can technically sell this week but who knows lol.

Definitely strange gap up and dump. The only strange bet I saw was yesterday there was a 800K bet on weekly 180$ puts.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Seems to me that TSLA did better when the banks were failing - everyone was piling into tech, now they rotate back into banks...

We'll see: Only EU-banks look safe like your big 4, because of 25% cash as law (EU) or rule of thumb + government-bail-out-warranty(US)
The rest... I don't have exact data, but I've heard some banks only being on 1% cash. If somebody shouts "FIRE" it can be a disaster. Did not follow today's hearing, but yesterday gave a bit of shocking disclosure to me.. SVB would have been audited not earlier than 2024 and it would not have even made a difference?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Bizarre price action ahead of a new quarterly record...

When market consensus is @420.000 cars and Troy @418.000 there must be a huge surprise to be of effect on monday. Maybe yet another sell the news?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

It is striking how low volumes are this week, so TSLA is very easy to manipulate, hence the swings, I think (and I use to my advantage)

 

[UltradoomY]

I'm not seeing anything on option flow and volume is pretty high. I don't think Elon can technically sell this week but who knows lol.

Definitely strange gap up and dump. The only strange bet I saw was yesterday there was a 800K bet on weekly 180$ puts.

ARK has been selling off shares the past week or so - most likely candidate in my opinion is them off loading again to buy TDOC or something else dumb.

I'm holding my $190 04/06 P's sold yesterday at $9.50 still and will look to off load on Friday.

Also in the process of rolling all of my $200 and $250 strike leaps to the December 2025 strikes at the moment.

Already done about half between yesterday and today. trying to get them done before the week is out. trying to keep the net cost to roll them to about $5 each. Yesterday was great since I have the extra cash - I bought them and today sold the June 2025's to make it only a $2 difference.

Hopefully get more opportunity soon.

 

[bingoz]

There was a moment this morning that I was thinking of rolling my 195cc, but seems like I don't have too. Seems like everybody is just waiting for the P&D numbers for now. My 190-195 target for this Friday close is still intact. I like the way it's sideway here but expect a big move either way next week.

 

[CHGolferJim]

ARK has been selling off shares the past week or so - most likely candidate in my opinion is them off loading again to buy TDOC or something else dumb.

I'm holding my $190 04/06 P's sold yesterday at $9.50 still and will look to off load on Friday.

Also in the process of rolling all of my $200 and $250 strike leaps to the December 2025 strikes at the moment.

Already done about half between yesterday and today. trying to get them done before the week is out. trying to keep the net cost to roll them to about $5 each. Yesterday was great since I have the extra cash - I bought them and today sold the June 2025's to make it only a $2 difference.

Hopefully get more opportunity soon.

If I ever get back to break-even on ARK etf’s, I may sell and buy Baron funds whose approaches I much prefer. Cathy’s rebalancing approach is understandable, and I appreciate the team analyst approach and her general outlook, but it escapes me how her funds will capture the big TSLA upside with the 10% cap.

 

[MikeC]

If I ever get back to break-even on ARK etf’s, I may sell and buy Baron funds whose approaches I much prefer. Cathy’s rebalancing approach is understandable, and I appreciate the team analyst approach and her general outlook, but it escapes me how her funds will capture the big TSLA upside with the 10% cap.

Sunk cost fallacy?

If you like Baron better, no reason not to switch now. If his approach is better, then when ARK gets back to even, Baron should be even higher.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Sunk cost fallacy?

If you like Baron better, no reason not to switch now. If his approach is better, then when ARK gets back to even, Baron should be even higher.

I’m focused on the factor that, as we often see with TSLA, higher beta stocks and funds that get more hammered often bounce back more. Despite that, ARKK and BPTIX are both up a similar ~20% YTD.

 

[MikeC]

@Yoona tweet, will we end at 190.20 to make it 3 days in a row?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641105590406479872

 

[CHGolferJim]

@Yoona tweet, will we end at 190.20 to make it 3 days in a row?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641105590406479872

Interesting how Yoona has shifted from TMC to Twitter with a similar commentary approach. Setting up as an influencer?

 

[Chenkers]

I haven't been selling many options lately due to the elevated macro risk etc. However today's been OK on the options day trading front.

I carried some Jun 240/280 BPS through yesterday that were funding 350 trading shares and managed to sell the shares off for $194.75 early on for a decent profit (and offload the BPS). Then at the start of the MMD I bought 6 x Mar31 192.5P+ for $3 and sold around the bottom for $4. Then it was into 7x Mar31 192.5 C+ for $2.60 that I just sold the last off for $3.60. The options day trading has been a steep learning curve so far, but I feel like I'm getting more consistent at it.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Last SPY daily options update
[TSLA 193.20 > Wmax pain but in line with optiontradinglevels] [SPY within D max pain] TSLA will hold or drop a little bit, will obey SPY 399/400 level.
Like Yesterday: SPY rising>400 : $TSLA wil drop, SPY falling <399 $TSLA will rise until SPY is between 399 and 400. Big stakes on SPY options today.

Like always: Major Macro news not included

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Interesting how Yoona has shifted from TMC to Twitter with a similar commentary approach. Setting up as an influencer?

I think you are right. I think that appearance was intentionally so from the beginning. photo and all, trademark..
Of course, nothing wrong with that!

 

[dl003]

TSLA is building an obvious bull flag. Often this is bullish. I'd like to see 182.5 by Friday morning before bouncing / breaking out. As of right now, it's only corrected 0.386 of the bounce from 164-201. This is very similar to the shallow retracements seen during wave 1 so I guess you can say history repeats itself. However, keep in mind that wave 1 was an impulsive bounce from the most oversold condition TSLA had ever been in since its IPO; also relevant is the inclusion of 5 seater MY in the IRA. Right now we have no such things. Maybe we do and somebody knows something we don't, but 185 was not deep enough of a pullback for me to feel good about it. For TSLA to keep going up from here, we need to have an amazing P&D. Retracement / pullback is simply the process of absorbing bad news by the market. The more bad news it absorbs before bouncing, the stronger the rally after. As of right now, TSLA hasn't seen any real bad news at all and, as such, expectations are high. The big 217-164 pullback didn't even touch the 0.5 line, but it's close enough to put the possibility of the bottom being in on the table, provided P&D is great.

Note that TSLA is underperforming its beta today. SPY is at 400 and my target for it is 404-406. I'm taking this as signal of the market slowly switching to a risk-off posture. Once we get to 404-406, a sharp drawback can happen in a blink of an eye.

The 2022 SPY vs 2023 SPY analog is playing out as predicted.

 

[Knightshade]

TSLA is building an obvious bull flag. Often this is bullish.

If it weren't they'd have to call it something else.