Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[intelligator]

The highest call/put OI hardened with a move out of c200 to c190 and maybe flip roll out of some calls or load-up at p180. Two put spreads I have, $10 wide, with short sides at-p180 and -p177.5 seem safe. Next week is 4 trading days, one free theta burn, will take a look at 6/2 put plays if we get one or two nice dips like we did yesterday.

Jun 2nd highest OI are at C200, P175 ... here's the shift yesterday.

 

[UltradoomY]

Interesting 7/21 $200/$230 bull call spread spotted based on unusual TSLA options activity (Tesla’s Q2-23 earnings is around 7/19-7/26; P&D first week of July.)

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Whether it’s “someone always knows” positioning for a beat or just a closing order remains to be seen based on the option chain over the next several days.

Anyone have thoughts on this play?

PS Here's a link to the trade I copied into Optionstrat:

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optionstrat.com

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I'm not sure that this is a Bull Call Spread - his video and chart has them as red / green to indicate buy / sell but that's not what the red - green mean.
Red is at the Bid and Green is at the ask - yellow is mid
There is no way to know who sold or bought an option because by definition there are always 2 players in a transaction.

I don't know why any savvy trader would buy a Bull Call Spread that close in time that is that far OTM.
Seriously - unless the underlying moves up in the next 2 weeks to above the bought strike - then the theta decay starts working overdrive.

If you are positioning for a $200+ bull call spread for news with earnings or the P&D report then the minimum you would be looking to purchase your spread at is September.
That way there would significant Theta left when the "news" happens.

In my opinion this looks to me like a 60 day Bear Call spread for Theta farming and allowing for it to stay OTM until the P&D and close before June 30th.
This would make the most sense as over the next 45 days (where you would want to be in the time value) for theta decay before a binary event.
That way you close it out and keep the majority of your premium without too much risk.

This is text book option selling by bigger players where they sell OTM spreads at least 45 days out and close them before they expire.

I consider myself a gambler and go with my gut more than a chart but even I would not spend the money on this as a Bull Call Spread and would actually consider this a potential Bear Call Spread.... However I don't do spreads for the way up.. only occasionally on the put side, but even those have been abandoned.

Curious if anyone else agrees?

Either way it's a fun thought experiment.

 

[khill]

Still holding my -185C. Will see if a roll is necessary comes Friday.

Still holding these till the end of the day to see if they just expire worthless?

 

[BornToFly]

Just remember that near the money plays can blow up quickly with unforeseen news. Don't know if the Ford deal will do it. Could be something else. Many of us lost HUGE amounts of money in 2021 on the Hertz deal announcement and the massive TSLA run that followed.

 

[BornToFly]

I opened up the last of my CCs for next week for 212.5 strike.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Despite originally wanting to wait until Tuesday to open positions for next week, I couldn’t resist the action and the extra day of theta burn - in for 10x 6/2 -210c at $0.58.

 

[rikkert]

Happy to see my shareholder meeting $140 protective puts are expiring worthless today.

 

[CHGolferJim]

This morning sold CC 2June$185 at $8.65, and hope to close 26May$185 for minimal cost at the end of the day if the closing share price seems likely to hold above $185.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Put in an order premarket for a 200CC for next week for 1.2, which got executed quickly of course .

 

[bingoz]

This morning sold CC 2June$185 at what might be close to the day’s high, and hope to close 26May$185 for minimal cost at the end of the day if the closing share price seems likely to hold above $185.

Just curious are you leaning toward a red week next week?

Other than a pull technical pull back, seems like everybody is expecting the debt ceiling lift and bears might be more conservative after NVDA ER. I rolled my -c182.5 to -c190 6/2 on the dip last Wednesday, but really not sure what to expect from here.

The tech rallies somewhat makes no sense to me, but who knows how long it lasts.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Just curious are you leaning toward a red week next week?

Other than a pull technical pull back, seems like everybody is expecting the debt ceiling lift and bears might be more conservative after NVDA ER. I rolled my -c182.5 to -c190 6/2 on the dip last Wednesday, but really not sure what to expect from here.

Like the legislators, I’m just kicking the can down the road. If SP <$190 at the time I close the 26May$185, the roll will be zero cost with a reduction of 6 contracts. Will deal with 2June$185 next week, as needed. Priority now is to exit the 26May contracts and reduce total shares covered.

Anyone have a read on options activity today bumping the effective current max pain balancing act well above $180?

 

[MikeC]

Panic rolled 5/26 -c182.50, 6/2 -c185, and 6/9 -c180 into 6/9 -c190, 6/23 -c195, and 7/21 -c195. Closed all puts and sold -p190 for next week. Bought and closed short-term calls too early this morning.

I think the Ford partnership is a game changer. Lends industry credibility like Hertz did. If Q2 margins are up, I don't see what stops us from being 250-300+ in a few months if macro stays on track.

Edit: Closed the NVDA -p380 too early but made 50% gain. I don't like or follow NVDA like I do TSLA so it's hard to have confidence in the share price. I think I'll stick with TSLA options.

 

[intelligator]

Entered a 6/2 BCS -207.5/+217.5 for 1.00 just before we touched 195 , if it hits will have room to work with come Monday if trend continues. GLTA!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I saw the Ford news, and then checked the ticker, and so far no significant change AH. I wonder if this will turn into another Hertz moment from a couple years ago.... I hope not as I already rolled most of my CC for tomorrow to next week for 212.5 strikes.

Yikes Hertz my -C positions. ATM getting that feeling AGAIN especially reading your post. Many other big tech names are at ATH so why not Tesla zooming up 20-30% in a week or two? Last week what I thought was safe CCs in the 195+ isn't safe. Many were near 60%+ gain yesterday and today it doesn't look good. What's bad for my CCs is great for my overall position.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Panic rolled 5/26 -c182.50, 6/2 -c185, and 6/9 -c180 into 6/9 -c190, 6/23 -c195, and 7/21 -c195. Closed all puts and sold -p190 for next week. Bought and closed short-term calls too early this morning.

I think the Ford partnership is a game changer. Lends industry credibility like Hertz did. If Q2 margins are up, I don't see what stops us from being 250-300+ in a few months if macro stays on track.

Edit: Closed the NVDA -p380 too early but made 50% gain. I don't like or follow NVDA like I do TSLA so it's hard to have confidence in the share price. I think I'll stick with TSLA options.

Personally I think it's a combination of a broad market rally based on debt ceiling optimism and the Ford partnership, with more attributed to the former than the latter. (EDIT: Not anymore. )

 

[EVNow]

Just rolled tomorrow's 202.5 calls to 205 next week (and 202.5/212.5 spread to 205/215). Hope I won't regret not following my "rule" of not rolling till Friday.

Hmmm ....

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Gosh darn it! Overslept this morning and now my -185C's are DITM. I imagine there's just too much momentum for max-pain today, So fellow gamblers ... Do we think there's a chance for retracement after the debt ceiling deal is done?

 

[BornToFly]

Wow. We might be looking at a 200 close today. I may be rolling my 6/2 212.50CC on Tuesday....

 

[EVNow]

Personally I think it's a combination of a broad market rally based on debt ceiling optimism and the Ford partnership, with more attributed to the former than the latter.

I think it is more the latter than former. Up 7.2% vs Nasdaq 2.2%. With normal 2x beta, I'd expect ~4% to 5% up for Tesla.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I think it is more the latter than former. Up 7.2% vs Nasdaq 2.2%. With normal 2x beta, I'd expect ~4% to 5% up for Tesla.

Yeah, the latest intraday move has me thinking you're right.