Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

if it was me, I'd be a lot more concerned about those -245p. The schedule says things are about to get real bad real soon. Tomorrow could be the last chance to de-risk. NTA.

Well they are cash secured so the risk is just owning shares I'd sell calls against and wheel it.... but right now the best I could do to take em off the table entirely is rebuy now at about a .50/sh loss... I would think if forced to buy on a drop, and we were going to 230s, I'd still be better off just selling 245 weeklies until they fill-- or are you thinking we're actually going a LOT lower than that?

 

[Nocturnal]

Anyone noticing there have been zero high profile downgrades on TSLA post P&D? Do these analysts really need more than 5 minutes to plug in the numbers? Or are they allowing smaller bears to be squeezed out first?

Yes and it’s odd. Even the media narrative right now is “tesla is hurting a bit but WS doesn’t care”.

I do think it’s possible we see real news on autonomy sometime this year we aren’t close enough for them to care. Perhaps it’s being considered more of an AI stock now but that hype in general has cooled.

 

[khill]

Yes and it’s odd. Even the media narrative right now is “tesla is hurting a bit but WS doesn’t care”.

I do think it’s possible we see real news on autonomy sometime this year we aren’t close enough for them to care. Perhaps it’s being considered more of an AI stock now but that hype in general has cooled.

What autonomy news are you thinking? I have been on FSD beta for almost two years now, and it has long way to go. Are you thinking anything related to Optimus?

 

[thenewguy1979]

Watch it trying to go green

 

[dl003]

Well they are cash secured so the risk is just owning shares I'd sell calls against and wheel it.... but right now the best I could do to take em off the table entirely is rebuy now at about a .50/sh loss... I would think if forced to buy on a drop, and we were going to 230s, I'd still be better off just selling 245 weeklies until they fill-- or are you thinking we're actually going a LOT lower than that?

I'm thinking at least 208. Possibly lower.

 

[thenewguy1979]

I have made my bet at $200 put x 12 for 10/27.

Dont need to follow me. Im an ex wallstreet bet guys.

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm thinking at least 208. Possibly lower.

Wow! Over what timeframe?

 

[dl003]

Wow! Over what timeframe?

Why are you acting surprised lol? I've been saying 200 or lower late October - early November for a while.

 

[Nocturnal]

What autonomy news are you thinking? I have been on FSD beta for almost two years now, and it has long way to go. Are you thinking anything related to Optimus?

V12, whatever they can pull together with Dojo but for me the most interesting was Larry Ellison telling his people that Robotaxis would happen within a year.

I don’t listen to Elon anymore on timelines but Larry probably wouldn’t blow smoke like that unless he believed it.

I’ve been in Beta for about that long too and agree for our cars but I have a sneaking suspicion that a dedicated Robotaxi car can iron out the deficiencies. Perhaps rolling out to our vehicles sometime later. I’d be shocked if WS really changed their opinions on this lately though.

 

[Jim Holder]

Why are you acting surprised lol? I've been saying 200 or lower late October - early November for a while.

True! Only because I think last week you mentioned at some point that maybe $230-240 can contain the low but maybe I misunderstood. I don’t mind if it goes deep down, as long as we all manage to maximize the ride down this time!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Agree with you that it doesn’t make any sense given those numbers…was surprised myself and wondering why that’s the case.

The credulous part of me says that the market is looking past the already-guided for volume drop and to the reiterated full year guidance, and the stock price has already been trimmed from its mid-quarter highs, but the incredulous part of me thinks it's sketchy AF...

 

[Knightshade]

The credulous part of me says that the market is looking past the already-guided for volume drop and to the reiterated full year guidance, and the stock price has already been trimmed from its mid-quarter highs, but the incredulous part of me thinks it's sketchy AF...

I think the delivery dip was semi baked in- but I'm not sure the more significant EPS and margin dips some are projecting for Q3 are.

 

[dl003]

Yes and it’s odd. Even the media narrative right now is “tesla is hurting a bit but WS doesn’t care”.

I do think it’s possible we see real news on autonomy sometime this year we aren’t close enough for them to care. Perhaps it’s being considered more of an AI stock now but that hype in general has cooled.

It's not odd at all. WS uses upgrades and downgrades to manipulate the SP as the last resort. There were too many people jumping on the short train from 279. WS is not about to let those freeloaders enjoy a smooth ride down. They're being squeezed out now and their puts are becoming worthless. When they're out and only then will the downgrades come. Soon.

 

[khill]

V12, whatever they can pull together with Dojo but for me the most interesting was Larry Ellison telling his people that Robotaxis would happen within a year.

I don’t listen to Elon anymore on timelines but Larry probably wouldn’t blow smoke like that unless he believed it.

I’ve been in Beta for about that long too and agree for our cars but I have a sneaking suspicion that a dedicated Robotaxi car can iron out the deficiencies. Perhaps rolling out to our vehicles sometime later. I’d be shocked if WS really changed their opinions on this lately though.

But even Larry said in the next one year…so could be as late as next year Q4…not something that’s imminent this quarter.

 

[Nocturnal]

But even Larry said in the next one year…so could be as late as next year Q4…not something that’s imminent this quarter.

Yeah. I think it is doubtful that this could be the reason for WS to be bullish but I don't see many others. Continued struggling from Legacy perhaps but...

dl003's idea of regular old manipulation does seem the most likely.

 

[UncaNed]

Are we still expecting Stock Price 252 today?

Or 252 tomorrow Morning?

Or likely higher?

 

[Max Plaid]

The credulous part of me says that the market is looking past the already-guided for volume drop and to the reiterated full year guidance, and the stock price has already been trimmed from its mid-quarter highs, but the incredulous part of me thinks it's sketchy AF...

It's pretty obvious that Tesla are going to have a blow-out Q4, the reason Q3 P&D didn't hit Wall Street expectations is because Tesla couldn't sell any new M3's until October 1st, so they were all stock-piled in China or put on ships for Europe, Canada, Australia... there are at least 9 ships in-transit with Teslas right now

So add a delayed CyberTruck launch into the mix, increased Texas production with the reintroduced MY RWD, Tesla Energy, some deferred FSD revenue Q3 EPS, could be smoother than some think. Or it could crash and sink into the abyss. I have no idea. If I had to bet the farm on it, I would say sideways around 245-255 until earnings

 

[SpeedyEddy]

WS is not about to let those freeloaders enjoy a smooth ride down

So here we try to get the waves they create. This time we will not be fooled totally. We can figure this out together.
I must say that I am far away from where I started. Bought in 2019 and HODLer until 2022 when I did what WS lured me into. Loosing much. Now it’s payback time. I’ve learned a lot and know that in the end I will have less shares than at the beginning of ‘22 ( gave the kids a lot too). But that does not matter. I almost made enough already to not have any worries moneywise. Next bottom will bring me back to HODLing. Plus some (MUCH safer) optionwriting @ trading, not putting any share on the line ever again.

 

[Jim Holder]

It's pretty obvious that Tesla are going to have a blow-out Q4, the reason Q3 P&D didn't hit Wall Street expectations is because Tesla couldn't sell any new M3's until October 1st, so they were all stock-piled in China or put on ships for Europe, Canada, Australia... there are at least 9 ships in-transit with Teslas right now

So add a delayed CyberTruck launch into the mix, increased Texas production with the reintroduced MY RWD, Tesla Energy, some deferred FSD revenue Q3 EPS, could be smoother than some think. Or it could crash and sink into the abyss. I have no idea. If I had to bet the farm on it, I would say sideways around 245-255 until earnings

Maybe both, crash and recover toward end of Q4

 

[Max Plaid]

Maybe both, crash and recover toward end of Q4

As Murray Walker famously once said: "Anything can happen and probably will"