Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

I'm hoping for a green Marco tomorrow to help pull TSLA back to 220 area.

Markets smell strongly of bear farts to me right now, I'm surprised they have corrected more, I think it's a MSFT and NVDA keeping the indices up right now

But what do I know, VIX is low, so other folks aren't seemingly feeling the same. That being said, the greed index is dropping

 

[tivoboy]

Markets smell strongly of bear farts to me right now, I'm surprised they have corrected more, I think it's a MSFT and NVDA keeping the indices up right now

But what do I know, VIX is low, so other folks aren't seemingly feeling the same. That being said, the greed index is dropping

View attachment 1009838

As nearly half the put volume has moved to 0DTE options, the regular VIX measurement has been skewed for a while now. One has to a bit more closely follow VIX1D to see the real relative volatility spikes certainly for shorter Time frames.

 

[Patrick66]

But what do I know, VIX is low, so other folks aren't seemingly feeling the same.

The economy is really mixed right now. I had been in my bubble since before new years and was in town today and it is much more visible to me. Plenty of parking at a Home Depot that never has any, fewer contractor trucks around, mall nearly empty... but at the same time I see a bunch of new major purchases and such; I see people still looking for employees, and lines at some places.

It will be interesting to watch earnings season this quarter to learn something beyond the headlines and news reports on the state of the economy.

 

[MikeC]

Sold some -c217.50 and 220 for Friday today just to have some action after having way too few CCs this week.

But I’m starting to think we should get a little bounce before ER. We’ve dropped a lot and if we go into it around 200, it would seem to be too good a setup for a relief rally if earnings are decent and macro is stable. I’m thinking we more likely see 230 than 200 over this next 7 days. Maybe we just need to get the quarterly expiration out of the way.

 

[Jim Holder]

As nearly half the put volume has moved to 0DTE options, the regular VIX measurement has been skewed for a while now. One has to a bit more closely follow VIX1D to see the real relative volatility spikes certainly for shorter Time frames.

Very interesting, goes together with what I’ve been hearing about the VIX being “broken” as a 1:1 indicator for market direction as reliably as it used to be.

Great call last month that we’ll be below $220 by now. What are you seeing for the rest of the month and quarter?

 

[CHGolferJim]

• For moderately aggressive CC allocation (10-18 DTE 10% OTM) rolled 16Feb$265 to 26Jan$240 for $0.15 credit
• For medium-term scalping allocation (270 DTE 25% OTM) rolled 20Sep$305 to 20Sep$265 for $7.71 credit, will close or roll at 50% of $17.40 STO, or near ATM
• To get rid of the last long tranche sold to escape a DITM CC, will probably roll 20Sep$300 to 26Jan$240 and 2Feb$240 by Friday at minimal credit/debit
• At the end of this, ladder will have achieved 2024 EOY allocation goals, including 80% of shares covered and leaving shares I want to sell at $300+ as buffer/uncovered

 

[Jim Holder]

I added a question to Say for the upcoming ER, go vote!

Say - Q&A

This is your place to ask questions you'd like companies to address on their next Q&A.

app.saytechnologies.com

 

[Jim Holder]

If indices rally here it could drag TSLA to 2D supply. Still looking for 2D demand as the main target.

(Credit: Chandler Trades)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

What's really annoying that I started out end of December selling a ton of -c260's, then gradually rolled them down, 250, 240, 220, have stupidly high realised gains as a result, and yet the portfolio is down 10%YTD as my LEAPS, long calls and shares got squished...

Now the trick is to get out of and stop selling the super-aggressive calls just before it reverses...

Maybe you'd better act fast or keep hope for a sell the news 1/25, if you do not want to be rolling those -C back up. I don't know if 217 has to really be counted broken downward or that it is just a false break-below. PM looks good to be >217 so far. As well as most other stock t.b.h.. There is a really fragile aspect to $TSLA, that we all don't like. Hovering 212-213 yesterday indicates indecisiveness. Possible Geopolitic turbulence ahead keeps TSLA as a global player seen as being vulnerable, I guess.

 

[Max Plaid]

Maybe you'd better act fast or keep hope for a sell the news 1/25, if you do not want to be rolling those -C back up. I don't know if 217 has to really be counted broken downward or that it is just a false break-below. PM looks good to be >217 so far. As well as most other stock t.b.h.. There is a really fragile aspect to $TSLA, that we all don't like. Hovering 212-213 yesterday indicates indecisiveness. Possible Geopolitic turbulence ahead keeps TSLA as a global player seen as being vulnerable, I guess.

TSLA goes up, TSLA goes down, who knows! They have +$11 premium in them, so good up to 230, plus I have -p205's and -c230's, not to mention a few -p240's

Anyway, I plan to close out before earnings if the opportunity presents itself, don't know, if IV stays high the extrinsic will linger

Escape rolls, if needed:
100x -p205's -> weekly down to 100x -p200
130x -c220's -> 130x September -c270
100x -c230's -> 200x weekly, whatever that might be
20x -p240 -> 20x September -p270

Note that September 2024 I have a pile of -p270's, so any calls rolled there are essentially a hedge, plus with the premium and the value of the Dec 270 LEAPS at 270, I can sell those off for small profit

Believe it or not, I actually plan these things out

 

[Max Plaid]

Max Pain dropped to $210

 

[thenewguy1979]

Big green day today. Market inverse itself.

If we breaked 225 then Bullush setup into ER guys.

 

[Max Plaid]

Big green day today. Market inverse itself.

If we breaked 225 then Bullush setup into ER guys.

OK, so another red day then...

AAPL got a "buy" upgrade from BoFA - not sure why given then pressure on iPhone sales I keep reading about, but this has buoyed the M7's this morning

No idea why TSLA is up, other than generally being oversold, the PM volume isn't very high though, so let's see

Employment numbers coming up and FED Barr Bostic speaking later - hawkish on the dove/hawk scale (sorry Barr is tomorrow, along with Daly)

Jobs numbers slightly hot:

 

[thenewguy1979]

Look at AMD and NVDA. QQQ may have another 8 plus day.

TSLA goes up when it want. Macro is helping.

Maybe 212 is bottom till ER?

 

[Yoona]

Look at AMD and NVDA. QQQ may have another 8 plus day.

TSLA goes up when it want. Macro is helping.

Maybe 212 is bottom till ER?

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747788142633947253

 

[Singuy]

Look at AMD and NVDA. QQQ may have another 8 plus day.

TSLA goes up when it want. Macro is helping.

Maybe 212 is bottom till ER?

Tsmc had a pretty huge earnings which is juicing Semis today.

 

[Yoona]

200 next week is possible, if we fall

 

[BornToFly]

Who the heck keeps selling TSLA so hard even when macros are ripping?!? Tesla had its biggest revenue year ever in 2023 and earnings are next week.

 

[bopdit00]

Who the heck keeps selling TSLA so hard even when macros are ripping?!? Tesla had its biggest revenue year ever in 2023 and earnings are next week.

Same pattern for 2 weeks, dump hard first 10-15 minutes then sideway chop all day long.