Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

Micron (MU) earning is next Wednesday the 26th.

It's a major player in the AI space - providing HBM memories to NVDA AI.
Analyst expects good numbers which can furthur pump the AI bros (SMCI/NVDA/TSM/etc....)

Hard to see SMCI being bullish for next 2 weeks without NVDA also pumping. Those 2 are conjoined at the hips.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-is-one-of-the-three-horsemen-of-ai-here-are-the-others-374e8cd8

 

[thenewguy1979]

Daily Chart Updates.

TSLA back to tight consolidation (constipation) mode.

NVDA back to middle BB. Still overbought but some air was released I guess. Still Bullish.

SMCI - Interesting pictures seem to trapped between mid 700 and mid 900 for quite some times. Broke out yesterday but was quickly pulled back.

 

[tivoboy]

Micron (MU) earning is next Wednesday the 26th.

It's a major player in the AI space - providing HBM memories to NVDA AI.
Analyst expects good numbers which can furthur pump the AI bros (SMCI/NVDA/TSM/etc....)

Hard to see SMCI being bullish for next 2 weeks without NVDA also pumping. Those 2 are conjoined at the hips.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-is-one-of-the-three-horsemen-of-ai-here-are-the-others-374e8cd8

Yes, could be another nice catalyst.. I’m long $MU from ~ $49, not as much as $NVDA or $AMAT, $ASML, $QCOM or others but I think we’ll get most likely a 10%+ pop after reporting which could bring us back to recent highs in the usual suspects.

I’ll be on Mars from 7/10-7/22 and since communications round trip from there to earth is over 20 minutes delayed, I’m going to have to put in some in nice overall hedges and hopefully, go to a lot of cash in TAA accounts.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Yes, could be another nice catalyst.. I’m long $MU from ~ $49, not as much as $NVDA or $AMAT, $ASML, $QCOM or others but I think we’ll get most likely a 10%+ pop after reporting which could bring us back to recent highs in the usual suspects.

I’ll be on Mars from 7/10-7/22 and since communications round trip from there to earth is over 20 minutes delayed, I’m going to have to put in some in nice overall hedges and hopefully, go to a lot of cash in TAA accounts.

Thanks Professor for your mission to make Mar habitable for us Humans / Dogs.

Before you go please help ask AI what the 30 days forecast for SMCI and NVDA

The Dog sent you best wishes wherever you are.

 

[Max Plaid]

It’s that time of week… looking for the local bottom to sell some -p177.50’s

 

[tivoboy]

Thanks Professor for your mission to make Mar habitable for us Humans / Dogs.

Before you go please help ask AI what the 30 days forecast for SMCI and NVDA

The Dog sent you best wishes wherever you are.

30 day SMCI $901, probably lots of vol in between
NVDA $130, same same. I think we’ll see July call buying and re-balancing next week which should push this up again, I’ll be selling Aug $140 probably at that point.

 

[Max Plaid]

BTC this week's -p177.50's & -c185's -> could have let the whole lot expire, but always prefer to open next week's position in the previous week for the weekend Theta-burn, yes, I know, @Yoona thinks it better to wait until Monday, I really need to discipline myself to try a split strategy, 50% Friday, 50% Monday and see how they pan out

Premiums dropped a bit, unfortunately, but looking at a -p177.50/-c187.50 strangle, which is conservative for me, but I prefer to be out of weekly shorts heading into the P&D

The good news is that before the P&D comes out, we'll have the week China numbers and some of the European countries will have reported too, might give an early, tradable heads-up for the brave of heart

+3% of total portfolio added in cash this week, but -$100k on 100x +c300 burner calls expiring today... this current TSLA channel will continue to be profitable until it isn't, I expect a move with P&D and earnings, be careful folks

 

[mrmage]

Because Elon wants control of AGI (a thing Tesla isn't doing right now) and Elon doesn't have a controlling stake in Tesla.

That only makes sense if Elon believes that his company alone can create AGI, and that the multitudes of other AI companies cannot accomplish this. That argument does not pass the sniff test.

FWIW some have suggested they only have 24B "cash" on the last day of the quarter in an accounting sense and pointed to~15 billion in owed accounts payable (vs under 4B in AR) as suggesting their 'spare' cash day to day is a significantly smaller number (one that'll get worse if they keep seeing billions in negative FCF as they did last quarter- keep in mind less than half that negative FCF was AI spend too)

Also xAIs recent 6B was just a funding rounding- which has the total company valued at 24B- which Tesla definitely CAN NOT afford to pay cash for.

Which implies that if Tesla had launched xAI internally or as a subsidiary, the 6B investment by Tesla would have added 24B valuation (or 18B to be more accurate).

Elon also stated that Teslabot was a larger and more lucrative market than cars. An LLM and either AGI or advanced AI would be needed for that. If Tesla is already working on that, there would be no need for xAI. If Tesla is not working on that, will it need to license the tech? From xAI no doubt? How does that make sense? .

 

[Jim Holder]

Add to the promises list:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804157079407472982

 

[Jim Holder]

-P195 6/28 active

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804221816354853010

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804227094311825529

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1804209471557657019

 

[Jim Holder]

Tesla Seeks Delay in July Hearing on Legal Fees in Musk's Pay Dispute
Jun 21, 202413:59 EDT

Tesla asked to delay the July 8 hearing on the award of billions of dollars in fees to the lawyers who challenged Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package, following shareholders' approval of the compensation plan, Bloomberg reported Friday.

The shareholders' approval last week "impacts significantly what remains to be decided in this litigation," the company's legal team reportedly said in a filing. Tesla asked to postpone the hearing to give it a chance to present the shareholder vote's implications, Bloomberg reported.

Greg Varallo, a lawyer for the Tesla investor who filed the case against Musk's pay package, wasn't immediately available for comment, the report said.

Tesla did not immediately reply to a request for comment from MT Newswires.

 

[Knightshade]

That only makes sense if Elon believes that his company alone can create AGI, and that the multitudes of other AI companies cannot accomplish this. That argument does not pass the sniff test.

Does his argument only he can make reusable rockets pass it? How about his one only he can do self driving cars? Or cheap transportation tunnels? Or a "real" free speech social media platform?

Which implies that if Tesla had launched xAI internally or as a subsidiary, the 6B investment by Tesla would have added 24B valuation (or 18B to be more accurate).

Except, again, he's not interested in any AGI solution he doesn't have substantive control over because he doesn't trust others with it. And Tesla launching it internally would've been exactly that- an attempt at an AGI solution he lacks substantive control of.

Further, see the other posts pointing out Tesla was not in a position to stay competitive for talent vs OpenAI in a way a startup would be.

Elon also stated that Teslabot was a larger and more lucrative market than cars. An LLM and either AGI or advanced AI would be needed for that. If Tesla is already working on that, there would be no need for xAI. If Tesla is not working on that, will it need to license the tech? From xAI no doubt? How does that make sense? .

I think an argument has already been presented on exactly how Tesla licensing from x.AI would make a LOT of sense.... at least for Elon

 

[Jim Holder]

Also lots of calls sold:

How to read "Contract Trade Statistics"

First line
Red dominates=Bearish
Green dominates=Bullish

Second line
Red dominates=Bearish
Green dominates=Bullish

Third line
Ignore (don't know if buy or sell)

Fourth line
Green dominates=Bearish
Red dominates=Bullish

Fifth line
Green dominates=Bearish
Red dominates=Bullish

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[juanmedina]

vanna is the most volatile today (OpEx highest IV), dangerous to bet

next 2 weeks looks bullish

View attachment 1058464


1st gap filled, 2 more to go

SPY/QQQ MACD histogram suggesting short-term pullback instead of correction

The $95 gap?

I sold more SMCI $800 and $780 puts and already closed them for a $6.5 gain in less than an hour.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Re: TSLA, the hourly 50-day MA held.

 

[Max Plaid]

Some nice volatility in the final hour, STO -p177.40/-c187.50 @$4.3

 

[dl003]

That only makes sense if Elon believes that his company alone can create AGI, and that the multitudes of other AI companies cannot accomplish this. That argument does not pass the sniff test.

Whether other companies can come up with an AGI solution or not is irrelevant to his claim of wanting control over HIS OWN solution. A pharmaceutical company has to make sure its drugs are safe no matter how many other companies are making the same drugs.

Which implies that if Tesla had launched xAI internally or as a subsidiary, the 6B investment by Tesla would have added 24B valuation (or 18B to be more accurate).

No it doesnt.
Strawman.
Irrelevant.

Elon also stated that Teslabot was a larger and more lucrative market than cars. An LLM and either AGI or advanced AI would be needed for that. If Tesla is already working on that, there would be no need for xAI. If Tesla is not working on that, will it need to license the tech? From xAI no doubt? How does that make sense? .

Again, Tesla is doing its own slide of AI, which is different from what being done at xAI.

Im about to push the Ignore button. The level of braindead, fallacy ridden BS is getting unbearable.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Anyone know if the XLF rebalancing is still going on?
Suppose to be AH today, but seeing how AAPL re-took 2nd place not sure if this will change.
Should see some big movements (billions in $) moving between AAPL and NVDA.