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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Want to get some opinions on my planned strategy for my deep ITM Calls and LEAPS

So, I have some very deep ITM calls - strikes of 199 and 350 with expiration dates of Jan 2022 and June 2022. These were purchased a long time back, prior to the split so they are nicely profitable. My original plan with these was to hold till expiration, then sell some to generate sufficient cash to cover assignment of the rest. Now I learning that having calls this deep ITM is poor use of capital as they don't provide much greater upside than just holding stock. Plus, I have enough long term HODL shares, would rather try out new strategies to learn to generate income.

Currently, I want to have more cash in the account to sell BPS more aggressively over the next few months - this is an IRA account, so needs cash for margin. Second, my plan is to buy some more LEAPS for Jan'24 - I think they are priced well and my expectation is stock price will at least double in that timeframe. In that case, these will appreciate quite well over the next couple of years.

(1) Sell them all - use half the proceeds for LEAPS and half for BPS - probably the cleanest strategy. In that case, I feel it is better to wait till after Q3 earnings for a pop in share price.

(2) Roll them to a higher strike price at same expiration. That will free up cash I want, while I still keep these expiration date options to catch any quick upswing in SP. I was thinking rolling up to 500 strike price, that feels safe enough over the next 9 months.

Would it make any difference which of the two? I tried using the Fidelity P/L calculator to see what is the better option, but couldn't figure out if one strategy is better than the other.

I did well with LEAPS over the last couple of years, but frankly, with the stock going up 15X in that timeframe, not much skill was required. Now have to be more careful selecting which ones to buy. I don't have much confidence in my ability to do well with BPS as I am still learning - so it is better to have some LEAPS to hold passively.
 
at 80% (right now), my long-dated 90DTE BPS will produce approx 150kx4=$600k annual income :) , if i simply repeat this 4x/yr (assuming prems stay the same, etc)

but since i can cash out now at 80% (ie 60DTE), it means i can do this 6x/yr (approx $900k income) instead of 4x/yr

PLUS: at 50%, the bcs gravy gives 8kx6=$48k annual income to pay for the Xmas party drinks
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Risk that would worry me here, is that 90 days is a really long time with Tesla stock.. and it would be easy to think the stock will recover in that timeframe, even if it crashed so that both legs are itm. With this kind of long expiry, will you adjust and when?
Imagine if you had a sold something similar around january ath.. 3 months later stock was down almost 30%.
 
At the beginning of the week, I told myself not to sell any cc until after FOMC on Thursday, but at the end I just couldn't resist on selling it during the pop on Wednesday. Originally I STO 650cc and 655cc, but yesterday pre-market went to 659 so I BTC with breakeven when it dipped yesterday. Seems like its unnecessary at all...So turn out I gain nothing on cc this week, what a shame.....

Haha, the closer I watch the price action everyday, the more unnecessary (and wrong) action I took
 
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At the beginning of the week, I told myself not to sell any cc until after FOMC on Thursday, but at the end I just couldn't resist on selling it during the pop on Wednesday. Originally I STO 650cc and 655cc, but yesterday pre-market went to 659 so I BTC with breakeven when it dipped yesterday. Seems like its unnecessary at all...So turn out I gain nothing on cc this week, what a shame.....

Haha, the closer I watch the price action everyday, the more unnecessary (and wrong) action I took
We did exactly the same thing, exactly. lol
 
I’m thinking of Rock Paper Scissors this week. Rock being macros, paper being market makers and scissors being fundamentals. Big events like a financial collapse can cause otherwise successful strategies to fail. Evergrande may yet be a cause, but not likely on its own. A USA govt debt default, that with other instabilities could cause a quick 20% drop, unrelated to fundamentals stock performance or market maker intent. These macro events can take us all by surprise with our mind more focused on fundamentals and market makers. I have been worried about fundamentals and a sudden spike in tsla due to P&D and likely $2.00+ Q3 earnings and riding market makers ability to keep us within a tight range. A combination of less stable macros and positive fundamentals could cause some increased IV the next few weeks and Knick out some BPS and CC’s in the same week, and much worse than this week. I intend a bit more caution , leaving room for runs in both directions and trying to wait for bottoms and tops to settle before making big decisions.
 
Agreed dc_h.

I need a Bart Simpson on the chalkboard image saying "I will not sell weekly options next week." "I will not sell weekly options next week." ....
I feel like puts might be safer...

OI 10_1 Friday morning.png
 
I hope you would have had the wisdom to buy back the sold put for a loss fairly promptly (say, after 5-10% loss), and then ride the bought put all the way to the bank.

I wasn’t doing spreads back then, so… oops.
Easier said then done, and this sort of discipline is difficult. There is often an expectation of rebound, so might as well hold through it, especially early in the life of the contract. Or just roll it out when it gets to ATM. Both are bad ideas when the stock continues to fall.
 
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Easier said then done, and this sort of discipline is difficult. There is often an expectation of rebound, so might as well hold through it, especially early in the life of the contract. Or just roll it out when it gets to ATM. Both are bad ideas when the stock continues to fall.

This is exactly what I do when a TSLA put I sold goes ITM: roll it out to a later date, and collect extra premium. Just make sure you keep rolling out well in time before expiration (when there'se still some time value in the option) to avoid being assigned the shares. Rule #1 for me: never ever close a position at a loss, especially not with a stock like TSLA of which I'm convinced it will always recover the lost ground.

In March I started selling puts from 700 downwards, slowly building up to a position of 20 puts. I held through to the low at 530, always rolling out to a later date and sometimes a higher strike, all the time collecting extra premium. Early this week, after just over six months, I closed the position with a profit of 303k. This shows how you can earn money selling put options even when the stock is hovering in a bandwidth.
 
This is exactly what I do when a TSLA put I sold goes ITM: roll it out to a later date, and collect extra premium. Just make sure you keep rolling out well in time before expiration (when there'se still some time value in the option) to avoid being assigned the shares. Rule #1 for me: never ever close a position at a loss, especially not with a stock like TSLA of which I'm convinced it will always recover the lost ground.

In March I started selling puts from 700 downwards, slowly building up to 20 puts. I held through to the low at 530, always rolling out to a later date and sometimes a higher strike, all the time collecting extra premium. Early this week, after just over six months, I closed the position with a profit of 303k. This shows how you can earn money selling put options even when the stock is hovering in a bandwidth.
Naked puts or bull put spreads?
 
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You do you (I don't know if you're joking), but I wouln't go too crazy on BCS in the current $TSLA environment. Most signs are pointing up, not down. Not advice of course, but the P&D report alone could send us flying.

It would be a way OTM BCS, if I did it. >800 for the bottom end, and that's for ending on 10/1.

But while some signs are pointing up, the premiums for calls are not up (they are in fact down). So while the stock is rising, you don't have enough sentiment among the buyers to back that up with large call buys, at least not in the volume where it pushed call prices up.



I will point out, we have this same song and dance around every P&D and quarterly report. Tesla will break all sales records, they do. Tesla will break profit records, they do. But the stock doesn't take off. My read on that is that Wall St. has already baked in a LOT of increased deliveries into the price of Tesla. And unless we see > 1 mil deliveries this year, we aren't going to move the needle that far. I have a large batch of HODL shares, so I would love to be wrong, but just reading the options prices, that's my take on things.
 
Risk that would worry me here, is that 90 days is a really long time with Tesla stock.. and it would be easy to think the stock will recover in that timeframe, even if it crashed so that both legs are itm. With this kind of long expiry, will you adjust and when?
Imagine if you had a sold something similar around january ath.. 3 months later stock was down almost 30%.
I was in that exact situation. I had been selling LEAPS put spreads for safety, but decided to try the whole 45DTE thing from tastytrade for the first time, right at the top. When we were above 800, I sold some 650/610 put spreads. Fun times 😅

I ended up rolling them to 680/640 Jan 2022 to receive a credit (Even though they would have expired worthless due to the big pop in March 🤦‍♂️)

One thing I learned with that experience is with put spreads, as long as the stock goes up over time you never need to take a loss. You can just delay profits for however far out you need to roll to. That helped me feel comfortable about taking more risk and selling shorter duration, which has been super valuable.

Once I started selling weeklys in May I used the proceeds to close them out since they were just eating up my margin for next to zero theta decay.