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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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well, well, well
it seems on Monday morning Newbie Trader Newbie Psychic saw the planned Friday <780 close
Learning for this week

Trust in the Newbie Psychic and others here where you are copying their trades and don't panic close early in the week. I did, at a significant loss unfortunately. If I had held on to the call spreads 805/855 those would have not been a total loss :(

2nd learning - it is better to wait till Friday to close out the BPS when IV is high. I closed mine yesterday and started new positions for half of them - didn't want to wait till today. The deals would have been much better today. In my IRA, I did wait till today, the premiums received are almost double!
 
I’ll ask the same question I asked earlier, if I’m looking to take the premiums I earn and reinvest back into Tesla because of the potential 2-3-4x upside, the best way to do this is buy shares or leaps? Looking at option profit calculator seems to indicate shares? What is everyone else doing? Buying 800 Jan 2024 leaps? I am really looking to increase my leverage so I can sell more puts / bps in the next 2-3 years. Thanks and have a great weekend!
 
Do have a score card for the past 3-4 months? It seems like week may have been the only week where Max Pain was completely incorrect.
this is last 365 days:

1633122389596.png

since end of May, there is higher chance friday sp close is > maxpain

 
Reasons I hate that chart: (I know you didn't make it, so nothing personal)

There's a lot of not-Fridays on it (and Fridays aren't indicated in any way specifically)

The scale sucks. Especially for the huge chunk of it where to the left of March that makes it a 400-900 scale instead of a more useful 550-750 scale.
 
I’ll ask the same question I asked earlier, if I’m looking to take the premiums I earn and reinvest back into Tesla because of the potential 2-3-4x upside, the best way to do this is buy shares or leaps? Looking at option profit calculator seems to indicate shares? What is everyone else doing? Buying 800 Jan 2024 leaps? I am really looking to increase my leverage so I can sell more puts / bps in the next 2-3 years. Thanks and have a great weekend!
If you want to sell more put then you need to stay in cash, but just selling puts means you miss out n the upside of the stock. To take advantage of that, buy some dITM LEAPS - my current preference is Jan 24 c600, then sell dOTM calls against those to recover the initial premium
 
If you want to sell more put then you need to stay in cash, but just selling puts means you miss out n the upside of the stock. To take advantage of that, buy some dITM LEAPS - my current preference is Jan 24 c600, then sell dOTM calls against those to recover the initial premium

Well, cash isn't the only option. You could buy shares and use margin to sell puts / put spreads. Then you'd have the double advantages of any upside in the stock price and also selling puts which seem more profitable lately than selling calls. I'm not sure to what extent leverage via LEAPs offsets earnings via selling margin puts... but the put spread strategy seems pretty good.
 
Well, my cc765s from last week rolled to cc785 this week almost gave me a heart attack this Monday with SP quickly jumping over the strike; I closed half of them at $8 in am, then watched the price run away...was seeing $820 soon, early exercise by someone and losing 50% to taxes... the thought was unbearable, so closed them all at 90k loss.
Was so nice seeing them expire worthless today haha. Anyway, sold a bunch more bps during the week for 10/1 to recover the losses, over the last 2 weeks I am in the positive, maybe $20-30k, so not the end of the world.

Sold 70x -730/630bps for 10/8 @9.50 (bad timing again grr)
and replaced the old 10/15 2x 650p ,2x 680p with
10/15 18x -700/645 bps with $5k credit.

Bought myself 1 Jan 2024 600c as a treat. :)
Life is good :)
 
Here’s my weekend contribution: This week’s closing graph and price targets. If I were trading ICs for next week, I would stay above 820 and below 740. Again, I have a hard time believing that we will touch 740, but just like my previous prediction awhile back, it’s possible that those darn hedgies will push it down again after the P/D report and before the financials come out.
 
Thanks for the suggestion, I closed some and sell some BPS for next week.

Just wondering, since mine is -700/+600 BPS this week, they cannot exercise it at all, right? So there should be no harm to hold these till expiry tonight?
They -can- be exercised. Understanding the mechanism will help understand the risk.

For that 600 strike put you purchased, you have the right to exercise it anytime you want. Doing so provides you the right to sell your shares for $600 each. Would you exercise the put and sell your shares at $600, when you can sell them on the market for $780? Of course not :)

Meanwhile that 700 strike put you sold is owned by somebody else. That person has the right to exercise their 700 strike put which can lead to you being assigned. Should that happen, they will sell you their shares at $700, which you will buy at $700. Would you like to buy at $700 with shares at $785? Of course you would.


The tricky bit here is that the option owner has about 30-90 minutes after close of trading to exercise their option. So if the market closes and extended trading begins, news comes out, and the shares go from 785 to 685 in the blink of an eye, the people that own those 700 strike puts might go hit up their brokers with option exercises, and that can lead to your very OTM put option being assigned after hours when you thought they were way, way OTM and expiring worthless.

Likely? Not at all. But always possible - the mechanics are there to make it possible.

I’ll ask the same question I asked earlier, if I’m looking to take the premiums I earn and reinvest back into Tesla because of the potential 2-3-4x upside, the best way to do this is buy shares or leaps? Looking at option profit calculator seems to indicate shares? What is everyone else doing? Buying 800 Jan 2024 leaps? I am really looking to increase my leverage so I can sell more puts / bps in the next 2-3 years. Thanks and have a great weekend!

I don't know about best :) I plan to be adding the 600 strike Jan '24s. I think that strike is far enough ITM that it won't go OTM, and so I'll have 2 years of call sales against the contract.

This did have me thinking about something. I put energy this last week into selling some covered calls (lcc's actually). They were successful and closed today for about a 75% profit. They got about as much energy as the BPS I sold for this week, and yielded maybe 1/30th of the income. Partly that's a function of how much more cash I'm using for BPS. But a lot of it is a function of the call premiums relative to the put premiums. The calls just don't pay enough.


I really like having positions open on both sides, but until the calls are paying better, I'll be using excess put premiums to keep piling up the leaps, and selling calls now and then against them. Mostly I'm just going to bias towards staying away from call sales - the risk / reward / effort is just bad, while the BPS risk / reward/ effort is good.
 
I’ll ask the same question I asked earlier, if I’m looking to take the premiums I earn and reinvest back into Tesla because of the potential 2-3-4x upside, the best way to do this is buy shares or leaps? Looking at option profit calculator seems to indicate shares? What is everyone else doing? Buying 800 Jan 2024 leaps? I am really looking to increase my leverage so I can sell more puts / bps in the next 2-3 years. Thanks and have a great weekend!
OTM leaps spreads (within reason) > ATM or slightly ITM leaps > Shares > deep ITM leaps

Pure OTM leaps are very risky, too high of a break even IMO

OTM leaps spreads insulate you somewhat from IV and have a good breakeven. They can reach like 4x profit with only a 50% stock gain in 1 year. This most closely matches the returns of put spreads selling. Also risky if the stock decides to go nowhere

ATM leaps use less buying power than shares but fluctuate a lot with IV. 100% margin req but costs less than 50% of what shares cost so you have more leverage.

Shares have a 50% margin req so you can use the other 50% to sell premium.

Deep ITM leaps (like 350 strike) cost half as much as shares but have 100% margin req, so there’s no advantage from a margin perspective

-

I do 60% shares, 20% otm leaps spreads, 20% cash, and sell premium with most of my margin. I’m planning to move a little more into leaps spreads though for extra leverage

-

PS if you expect more than 3x upside by expiration, go with leaps. If you expect less than 3x go with leaps spreads.

PPS if you love covered calls go with leaps or shares since you can’t write CCs against leaps spreads

PPPS I’m drinking so my numbers are probably off, but in general that’s how they stack up. Happy Friday!🍻
 
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Here’s my weekend contribution: This week’s closing graph and price targets. If I were trading ICs for next week, I would stay above 820 and below 740. Again, I have a hard time believing that we will touch 740, but just like my previous prediction awhile back, it’s possible that those darn hedgies will push it down again after the P/D report and before the financials come out.
at today's close of sp=775.22 and volatility=63, one standard variation (ie 68% probability) suggests 10/8 safe range is 712-838

1633139806081.png


two standard variations (ie 95% probability) range is 657-908

but next week is not a normal week so pls just ignore my post since this is noise and not applicable; move on - nothing to see here 😬
 
at today's close of sp=775.22 and volatility=63, one standard variation (ie 68% probability) suggests 10/8 safe range is 712-838

View attachment 716914

two standard variations (ie 95% probability) range is 657-908

but next week is not a normal week so pls just ignore my post since this is noise and not applicable; move on - nothing to see here 😬
Oops. I forgot to attach the graph. Apparently, drinking too much.
ACAD606E-35EF-4EBE-B054-BBC08BFC90D9.jpeg
 
My bull put spreads for 10/8:
-735/+635, $10.15 credit
- 715/+615, $8.18 credit
-700/+600, $6.85 credit

All were sold yesterday about an hour before close. With IV rising, premiums were just too juicy, and this kind of laddering gives me a lot of room to manage going into next week. Will probably close some if there's an IV crush.. or not, credit was about 2,5x my weekly income target..
 
I can't believe this week.
It was a weird week. The stronger the stock looked and the more bullish people were the higher Put premiums seemed to go!
I have to think hedging was a big reason for it.
I had a lot of positions on. More than I should have because I broke my personal reserve levels.
I got lucky to a degree, but the extra positions I shorted in BPS were so far out of the money that the probability of needing to manage them was less than 6 %.
The last 6 weeks have been crazy profitable. Almost @Lycanthrope profits and I'm not even doing a renovation! LOL

I have a good amount of BPS on for next week. Very conservative to conservative strikes yet good premiums.
Highest Strike I wrote is 720.
I'm Bullish on TSLA but Bearish on the market. I have concerns that there are many things that could easily happen to crash it 5-10 %
I have not found the right balance yet with position size and price risks.
I think I'm too conservative in my pricing with sometimes overly wide spreads in my BPS while I'm not being conservative enough in keeping a higher margin reserve.
I learn something new every month. Sometimes every week, and have been adjusting my strategies and trying new things with small trades.
I think there's always room for improvement and I know I still have tons to learn ad I'm making money and having fun doing it!
Thanks to all those sharing their knowledge and ideas on this thread
 
Reasons I hate that chart: (I know you didn't make it, so nothing personal)

There's a lot of not-Fridays on it (and Fridays aren't indicated in any way specifically)

The scale sucks. Especially for the huge chunk of it where to the left of March that makes it a 400-900 scale instead of a more useful 550-750 scale.
My attempt at making it a bit more reasonable to look at with Friday's highlighted.

max pain 3 month pulled oct1st.png


My quick takeaways (hopefully others will chime in)

1. Seems like MMs have been attempting to 'hold the SP down' as it seems the recurring pattern is overall that the SP is above max-pain most of the time and then gets pushed down on Fridays. This seems super bullish.
2. When volume shows up, the SP goes up, MMs loose control. Week of July 12th and Sept 13th.
3. Volume needed for MMs to 'loose control' seems to be >30M shares traded. Hasn't happened in a while...
4. Since I've been heavily interested in max-pain recently, I've noticed that nearly all the Friday's where we've hit max-pain almost exactly have been largely set by a call wall, as opposed to a put wall or no wall. This past week there was no wall which was remarkable.
 
Glad I sold my BPS for 10/8 yesterday. Macros could hold the stock back, but I expect an easy push past 800 on the open Monday.
I’m still only keeping about 7% in cash for BPS and theoretically iron condors, but noting on the call side until we are past 850. I’m all tax deferred so no margin. I’m sure we will be s as lol time high by end of year.