Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[InTheShadows]

"Don't think, it can only hurt the ballclub."

IMO the sweet spot is what you described above. Keeping BPS a good 20-22% outside of SP, then target a "greedy" premium every week.

I agree. I’m still managing a I dare you trade from Elon’s selling 10% poll. That’s 3 weeks of gains I have lost from capital tied up in that trade. (But is it really? It’s still at 7% weekly roi, was in the low 20’s when opened, and I’ve rolled it twice for strike improvement and credit both times.)

No need to get greedy with this strategy. Just let time and compounding work their magic.

 

[Tslynk67]

"Don't think, it can only hurt the ballclub."

IMO the sweet spot is what you described above. Keeping BPS a good 20-22% outside of SP, then target a "greedy" premium every week.

Not talking about BPS here, but naked puts, so different criteria

 

[Knightshade]

I don't think a 10b5-1 sales plan filed months in advance can be so picky.

Why?

It'd be easy enough to add conditionals to the sale based on current price movement like (just picking generic #s) "Each Monday for 8 weeks sell X shares each time the price has been above VWAP for 5 minutes" or whatever criteria you want to put around it.

I think he took Gary Black's advice and did some research on the best way for an Insider/Founder to sell shares in bulk: locate and sell to a few willing large buyers (Scottish Baillie Gifford & Co. or the Norwegian Public Pension fund, to name but two).

Weren't you among those in recent weeks who mocked Gary for this idea, insisting Elon "knew better" than those Wall Street types?

Why has that suddenly changed do you think?

That handles all the 900K share sale days, which were clearly done to pay the taxes incurred by executing his 2012 CEO stock options. I think the 'missing' days of sales are now complete too, just done through dark pools (privately arranged sales).

As others have noted, being in a dark pool does not remove the requirement to report via Form 4 within 2 days, it just means it doesn't IMMEDIATELY impact the share price like open selling would.... so unless within the last 2 days he can't have completed any sales we don't already know about, dark pool or not.

If that latter consideration did in fact motivate Elon's extra sales, then I think that also is a further indication that Tesla will NOT be buying either SpaceX or Starlink in the future

Doing so never made any sense anyway.

 

[BornToFly]

I have been thinking more about your strategy lately, instead of opening a safer BPS and close it on 80-90% profit, I should open a more aggressive BPS and close it on around 50-60% profit.

That is a good way to get wiped out when the SP goes against you just a little.

 

[BornToFly]

I don't think a 10b5-1 sales plan filed months in advance can be so picky. More likely, Elon has final say on the 'go/no-go' for each sale, but that likely just means veto'ing planned sale days (if that even happened).

Now, it seems just as likely that Elon is completing his share sales through dark pools, which implies no more sales on the Open Market. Here's Elon's tweet from just a few hours agoL

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Friends & pools are great" / Twitter​

​

I think he took Gary Black's advice and did some research on the best way for an Insider/Founder to sell shares in bulk: locate and sell to a few willing large buyers (Scottish Baillie Gifford & Co. or the Norwegian Public Pension fund, to name but two). Any one of which understands where TSLA is going over the next 2 years, it's a literal feast for a whale.

That handles all the 900K share sale days, which were clearly done to pay the taxes incurred by executing his 2012 CEO stock options. I think the 'missing' days of sales are now complete too, just done through dark pools (privately arranged sales).

The one outlier in this is Elon's 2nd day of selling, which was the largest volume day, and not concurrent with the exercising of any stock options. I think now, based on information out in the past 24hrs, it's quite possible Elon was seeking some 'pocket money' just in case he needs to recapitalize SpaceX and the Raptor + Starlink terminal production lines in 2023 (if revenue milestones are not met on time).

If that latter consideration did in fact motivate Elon's extra sales, then I think that also is a further indication that Tesla will NOT be buying either SpaceX or Starlink in the future. Does not rule out an IPO for Starlink, but I recall Elon saying he wanted to wait until their revenue stream was consistent and predictable, which resolves down to (surprise!) Raptors and Starlink terminals

Cheers!

I was confused about which thread I was in for a second. Careful AD, they might not let you back into the main thread if anyone finds out you've been seen here with the degenerates....

 

[jeewee3000]

I was confused about which thread I was in for a second. Careful AD, they might not let you back into the main thread if anyone finds out you've been seen here with the degenerates....

It's like Romeo and Juliette. The main thread and the options thread truly love each other, but their love is forbidden by the heads of the families.

 

[stealthyc]

That is a good way to get wiped out when the SP goes against you just a little.

It depends, in backtesting it seems to be ok, but you also need to probably be aggressive with taking losses early as well

 

[jeewee3000]

That is a good way to get wiped out when the SP goes against you just a little.

True, hence my remark.

For those attempting the strat, be sure to only use a small percentage of your available cash (at most 20%) for aggressive BPS'es. When the SP drops you then have loads of cash available to roll safely with a widened spread.

 

[samppa]

ok, so who sold 80k puts @ 920?
thats a big wall

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I closed out my 12/3 805/905 this morning at the pop for about 85% gain. I was originally hoping for a drop today and tomorrow (Elon selling) to open up some BPS for next week but I think the drop of share price might be smoothed out since Elon is hinting at dark pools (Friends and pools) in his most recent tweets.

I am planning on playing it conservative with far OTM BPS and no BCS since things could potentially get crazy with the 12/9 rumors next week. I am still a newbie but I sure do like getting money to learn

 

[InTheShadows]

It depends, in backtesting it seems to be ok, but you also need to probably be aggressive with taking losses early as well

There are tens of millions in losses on this thread. It works until it doesn’t.

 

[ZeApelido]

Welp, did what I was thinking, though for less premium than I could get a few days ago. Sold 90 x 600/800 Jan 23 BPS for $60. Return on max risk is ~ 39%, so would be about 0.75% per week if taken to expiration. I believe that's more than or similar to what I would comfortable get week to week. Big numbers but I feel rational, let's see how it goes!

 

[ABC2D]

This got to be Elon selling

 

[Tslynk67]

There are tens of millions in losses on this thread. It works until it doesn’t.

As long as there are more millions gained, it works out OK. My experience is that the gains accumulate over time, then get whacked with a big loss, typically over a could of weeks before things start to recover

This got to be Elon selling

My thoughts too... though volume isn't particularly impressive

 

[FS_FRA]

This got to be Elon selling

Not enough volume IMHO

 

[stealthyc]

There are tens of millions in losses on this thread. It works until it doesn’t.

I'm not sure what your point is, we all know this to be true. I was just pointing out that it is not necessarily worse than other strategies. It is certainly much more exposed to sequence of returns risk, but the overall concept is not necessarily bad, there are just some caveats to help avoid some pitfalls.

 

[ABC2D]

Not enough volume IMHO

I see that too, but the ticker breath is very similar to the days Elon sells. If it's EM selling, we should see another leg down in early PM

 

[tradenewbie]

Since I haven't sold BPS for next week yet, I wish Elon does some selling so I can do some BPS today

I see that too, but the ticker breath is very similar to the days Elon sells. If it's EM selling, we should see another leg down in early PM

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Took advantage of yesterday’s drop and this morning’s spike to 2-day roll my 12/10 -c1205s to -c1220s for a small credit. Of course, I didn’t correctly time the dip or peak, otherwise I would have rolled to 1255s. Oh well, there’s always tomorrow. Still holding various 12/10 -CSPs (1100-1200 range) because I can only poorly time one trade at a time.

 

[Tempus]

Finished closing out everything for this week on the pop this morning. Waiting for a dip to set up next week's BPS. In the last few weeks, every time i've done this the stock has then dropped 30 points and i had to spend the next 2 days looking at -200% on my spreads. Trying to be a bit more patient on my re-entry this time. Will see how that works out. (I'm sure it means the stock just goes straight up from here the next few days)