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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Nice juicy premiums, but close to the sun, for sure. Still only 5x, so hopefully not an extinction-event if it all goes Texas Institute up
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This made a lot of sense yesterday and has followed fairly precisely so far. I was able to close out my highest strike BPS for 75% profit, but unfortunately none of my more conservative strike positions executed at the price I was willing to close at. Greedy!
Reopened 12/3 BPS @ +$860/-$960 at low numbers to harvest a bit more premium this week. Will roll to 12/10 if anything horrendous happens. Might double down BPS @ +$860/-$960 for this week if the premiums continue much higher. I'm expecting a Berlin opening announcement this week. Hoping that lets me shuffle out of everything Thursday and set up for next week on Friday as MM's push down toward max pain of $1105.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Almost wish I were brave enough to day-trade these BPS options.
The 930/980 I placed yesterday was up 11k this AM, down 11k now. 22k swing . . .
(don't be greedy . . . don't be greedy . . . don't be greedy)
The 930/980 I placed yesterday was up 11k this AM, down 11k now. 22k swing . . .
(don't be greedy . . . don't be greedy . . . don't be greedy)
Pretty robust volume relative to yesterday. 12.3 vs 16.8 million shares traded by 1:15 PM.
Wondering if Elon is selling on the down low.
Wondering if Elon is selling on the down low.
Just opened some BPS ( I have been doing straight puts for the past month) 12/10 $995 / $800 for $13.50 each
Didn't get the low this morning some did but still not too bad - I went with the $200 (almost, there aren't any $795's) for better management.
Wanted to jump back into BPS for next week to up my defined risk and go with more contracts than the straight puts and the $800's were only $2 each.
Cheers!
Didn't get the low this morning some did but still not too bad - I went with the $200 (almost, there aren't any $795's) for better management.
Wanted to jump back into BPS for next week to up my defined risk and go with more contracts than the straight puts and the $800's were only $2 each.
Cheers!
Well the theory of a dip worked out well, even if it was more to do with Powel than Elon. I wish I could say more about the execution of the plan though.
I did BTC my BPS (255 x 1000/1040 @ $2.05 and 100 x 990/1020 @ $1.25) but I did it a bit early and could have bought back at a lower premium. Then having sold I was waiting ages for the Elon selling dip. After an hour I concluded that Elon was off swimming in dark pools and decided to re-enter with 205 x 1050/1090 @$4.55 and 200 x 1025/1065 @ $2.40. I did this right before the market fully responded to Powel's comments and so watched the positions turn red as the premiums nearly doubled. I'm still very comfortable with these BPS for this week with the price recovering around 1135 and strong resistance at 1100. Just a bit annoying to have left over $100k on the table but I'll take what I can get and still improved my BPS premiums by over $75k.
Mr Black seems to think Elon was selling today, maybe was the case and was all being lapped-up until the indexes crapped themselves on Powell's remarks
Would be phenomenally bullish if this were the case...
I noted that $1120 seems to be strong support yesterday and today, no specific TA on that, just that it was very reluctant to drop below and came back above very fast
So I'm pretty leveraged up for a rally now...
Instead of BPS this Is exactly what happened to me with puts, but on a fraction of the scale
jeewee3000
Active Member
Didn't have time to update y'all so these trades are posted "after the fact" but just wanted to share my thoughts on this weeks price action.
Monday upon open we rocketed up and I sold some 1400 cc's for 12/10 @ around $2.5. In my eyes that was a very decent premium for an unlikely event that I wouldn't even mind occuring.
Tuesday the stock shot up on open again but with less ferocity than Monday. I didn't want to sell cc's against all my shares for 12/10 (don't like having no "empty cc slots" in the case of disaster) but I placed a short term informed bet by selling some 12/3 1250 cc's @2.5 ish.
Yes, this is a more likely to happen-event, but given that:
- the upper BB is below 1250
- Max Pain is far below that point
- Elon might do some more selling this week
I see the risk as minimal. I can always roll if it goes Texas Institute up.
The pre-market SP increase does not scare me, since it shows a nice steady increase. I'm not even expecting $1200 this week. All eyes are on next week (even though I don't buy the 12/9 rumors at all) in the stock/options market, so it's next week I'll be way more careful than this week.
On BPS side I have 12/10 920/1000p as mentioned before. (and March 2022 1000/1150p but those were to save my *ss when we last visited the 900's).
Monday upon open we rocketed up and I sold some 1400 cc's for 12/10 @ around $2.5. In my eyes that was a very decent premium for an unlikely event that I wouldn't even mind occuring.
Tuesday the stock shot up on open again but with less ferocity than Monday. I didn't want to sell cc's against all my shares for 12/10 (don't like having no "empty cc slots" in the case of disaster) but I placed a short term informed bet by selling some 12/3 1250 cc's @2.5 ish.
Yes, this is a more likely to happen-event, but given that:
- the upper BB is below 1250
- Max Pain is far below that point
- Elon might do some more selling this week
I see the risk as minimal. I can always roll if it goes Texas Institute up.
The pre-market SP increase does not scare me, since it shows a nice steady increase. I'm not even expecting $1200 this week. All eyes are on next week (even though I don't buy the 12/9 rumors at all) in the stock/options market, so it's next week I'll be way more careful than this week.
On BPS side I have 12/10 920/1000p as mentioned before. (and March 2022 1000/1150p but those were to save my *ss when we last visited the 900's).
So it seems no F4 for Elon's share sale / options execution for the past 2 days. If he sold yesterday, he has until end of today to report?
Someone else mentioned that his sales have been into strength - with futures as reported by @Artful Dodger in the main thread looking strong, today might be the day.
Tesla/TSLA macro news is super positive too - so I'm hoping for a nice up day today.
Someone else mentioned that his sales have been into strength - with futures as reported by @Artful Dodger in the main thread looking strong, today might be the day.
Tesla/TSLA macro news is super positive too - so I'm hoping for a nice up day today.
@Lycanthrope @jeewee3000 I vote for Texas Institute up to be added to the glossary!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I don't think a 10b5-1 sales plan filed months in advance can be so picky. More likely, Elon has final say on the 'go/no-go' for each sale, but that likely just means veto'ing planned sale days (if that even happened).
Now, it seems just as likely that Elon is completing his share sales through dark pools, which implies no more sales on the Open Market. Here's Elon's tweet from just a few hours agoL
I think he took Gary Black's advice and did some research on the best way for an Insider/Founder to sell shares in bulk: locate and sell to a few willing large buyers (Scottish Baillie Gifford & Co. or the Norwegian Public Pension fund, to name but two). Any one of which understands where TSLA is going over the next 2 years, it's a literal feast for a whale.That handles all the 900K share sale days, which were clearly done to pay the taxes incurred by executing his 2012 CEO stock options. I think the 'missing' days of sales are now complete too, just done through dark pools (privately arranged sales).
The one outlier in this is Elon's 2nd day of selling, which was the largest volume day, and not concurrent with the exercising of any stock options. I think now, based on information out in the past 24hrs, it's quite possible Elon was seeking some 'pocket money' just in case he needs to recapitalize SpaceX and the Raptor + Starlink terminal production lines in 2023 (if revenue milestones are not met on time).
If that latter consideration did in fact motivate Elon's extra sales, then I think that also is a further indication that Tesla will NOT be buying either SpaceX or Starlink in the future. Does not rule out an IPO for Starlink, but I recall Elon saying he wanted to wait until their revenue stream was consistent and predictable, which resolves down to (surprise!) Raptors and Starlink terminals
Cheers!
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InTheShadows
Active Member
This is one of the reasons to take profits early. Missed it today because I was set for 80% profits. All my spreads would have closed if I had them set for 50%. Many were at 60-70% when Powell opened his mouth.
I'm more inclined to take profits 50-50% when we get nice green days, especially for ATM puts which can drop Theta really fast, then wait for weakness and open a new position. Seems less stressful to me and less risky too - with this approach I've been taking ~$20 per put contract profit in recent weeks, when you open 20-40 of them, it's very decent money for a very low-risk instrument
I was expecting Elon would sell some shares yesterday so I have set my 12/10 BPS order for -850/+650 & -890/+700 for 12/3. I waited very patiently and set the limit order for $7 and $5 based on estimation from optionsprofitcalculator.com if SP could drop to around $1100. When the SP was around 1120 and hang it for a while, I had a dilemma if I should just go ahead with $6 and $4 at that time. However, I decided to wait even longer and there's no more drop, greedy kills deal
I have been thinking more about your strategy lately, instead of opening a safer BPS and close it on 80-90% profit, I should open a more aggressive BPS and close it on around 50-60% profit.
jeewee3000
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
"Don't think, it can only hurt the ballclub."
IMO the sweet spot is what you described above. Keeping BPS a good 20-22% outside of SP, then target a "greedy" premium every week.
I beIieve (though I’m not positive) there would need to be a Form 4 for selling via dark pools as well as selling on the open market. The important thing is for investors to know when a principal is unloading, regardless of how/where.
So I don’t think Elon could have completed selling yet. We may not see the same impact as selling on the open market if he does it via dark pools, but I believe there’s still more to come.
Meanwhile, I’m having an itchy finger week. When everything rolled out a week Monday, it was great for the pocketbook yet left me nothing to do the rest of the week! I sold a few 1000-1050 put spreads for 10/3 and picked up a few shares at 1120… but I really want to leave the rest of my cash+margin unused. Sigh. It’s unexpectedly hard to just sit and watch time make money.
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