Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[FS_FRA]

I'm considering rolling my 4/22 -850/+650 to 5/22 for a juicy $10 or so....

Also a CC 15-25% OTM ($990 - $1060 strike range) for next week.

Then buy Chairs with the premium.

Today or Monday?

Edit: it was like a deer staring into headlights Monday it is then, I guess.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well I closed all of my BPS that went belly up today, at a loss, so things can recover now.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Yeah, all fun and games but this is still looming too. I'm pretty sure once it's underway stocks will recover to like what they were earlier today, but generally, war is bad for trade.

Indices tanking on the Ukraine invasion report, FYI...

Interest rates going higher, CPI report 7.5%, Ukraine Invasion report. I am usually bullish but at this moment I feel like rolling all my positions 2 years out and stopping looking at the SP.

 

[BornToFly]

OMG. Closed them out 5 minutes before close for .10 to make sure I didn't get shares assigned AH. Made around $5,000 on the 200X "day-trade" spreads. Spent $6,000 in new underwear....

 

[scubastevo80]

Around lunch STO BPS 2/18 -820/+740 for $6.16 when we were down 2.5% on the day. Rolled that out at 3:30 to 2/25 -805/+725 for an additional $2. Given this is an opportunistic trade, I decided I'm going to roll down and out early if we get within 3% of the upper strike. I'll roll until I'm about 10% below the 200 day.

Leaving the 2/18 -775/+650 alone for now.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

OMG. Closed them out 5 minutes before close for .10 to make sure I didn't get shares assigned AH. Made around $5,000 on the 200X "day-trade" spreads. Spent $6,000 in new underwear....

Couple of thoughts:
- I found real success and to not be stressed once I accepted that both win and loss are part of the game, and to never regret decision that was right at the time of making. Unfortunately I also found that no-stress == no-thrills, so it's just a bit of meaningless game now.
- It feels you're in this still for the thrills. Without intention to offend, if you're in this for money, I think you'll have to work on your mindset and emotionality. For example, focus on not losing could get you in trouble.
- You're selling insurance. You collect premium, and occasionally you'll need to pay insured. Perhaps leaving 50-80% of all premium as reserve for paying out makes sense?
- Based on your assessment of what's possible, and what's not, I figure you haven't traded in bear market. Moves are much more violent. Definition of impossible broadens. I don't do week to week, but for me, new possible "impossible" is around $670 now. Just my gut, line in the send I want to be safe at, not a prediction that it will come...
- my best returns are since I stopped caring about money, 2020 and 2021

 

[Yoona]

(ignoring Putin and suspicious of manipulation)

i am trying to understand why sp went to 850+ today... 4.93% drop seemed excessive... perhaps it's related to "filling the gap"? - i am a newbie at this

1/28 high is 857.50 and 1/31 low is 862.05, which means a gap of 857.51-862.04

they weren't "filled" until 2 weeks later, at today's low of 850.71

perhaps today's late afternoon pushdown is to fill the gap, using Putin as an excuse and hiding the manipulation while QQQ/NDX are also down?

if Putin is not a factor and since there are no more gaps, then the possibility of sp reaching bottom is high?

 

[jaspa]

(ignoring Putin and suspicious of manipulation)

i am trying to understand why sp went to 850+ today... 4.93% drop seemed excessive... perhaps it's related to "filling the gap"? - i am a newbie at this

View attachment 767894

1/28 high is 857.50 and 1/31 low is 862.05, which means a gap of 857.51-862.04

they weren't "filled" until 2 weeks later, at today's low of 850.71

perhaps today's late afternoon pushdown is to fill the gap, using Putin as an excuse and hiding the manipulation while QQQ/NDX are also down?

if Putin is not a factor and since there are no more gaps, then the possibility of sp reaching bottom is high?

View attachment 767885

I never fully understood "filling the gap". Can someone explain it in layman terms?

 

[JustMe]

I never fully understood "filling the gap". Can someone explain it in layman terms?

Maybe market makers machinations ->

 

[ChefBoyardee]

I never fully understood "filling the gap". Can someone explain it in layman terms?

Tbh I think filling the gap, and TA in general, is more of a self fulfilling prophecy because humans try to make sense out of randomness. If enough people hold off on buying because they’re waiting for the gap to get filled, it can tip the odds. I’m not sure what the original reason for it was (the video posted above is interesting), but statistically they’re very likely to get filled

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Tbh I think filling the gap, and TA in general, is more of a self fulfilling prophecy because humans try to make sense out of randomness. If enough people hold off on buying because they’re waiting for the gap to get filled, it can tip the odds. I’m not sure what the original reason for it was (the video posted above is interesting), but statistically they’re very likely to get filled

True.
It's also based on human psychology and psychology of the crowds. For example:
- human are adverse to loss, so when there was significant trading at some level, and then SP drops, there are many holders that wait to get back into positive, and sell immediately. This creates overheads.
- double top or double bottom usually means that on a retest, buyers(top) or sellers(botom) were not able to overwhelm opposite side and break to a new price level. This is matter of sentiment, so when they fail, sentiment changes and reversal takes place. However, no such thing as triple bottom/top. This kind of action is exhausting (say "triple"/"quadruple" top) existing sellers, and once they're gone, price is free to run up
- gaps means that no trading took place in particular range of prices. So there are no invested traders in that range. This creates a vacuum and if and when price retreats to the gap (say breakout), then it gets sucked in down until it's filled, as no interested parties are there, sellers or buyers. As gap is filled, people that sold and regretted sale may step up to buy back, as well as people that have bought there or higher
- Head and shoulder shows that buyers, or rather buyers capital is being exhausted. Inverse head and shoulders shows the same for sellers, either for short sellers, or investors interested in selling have sold everything they needed to
- cup and a handle shows long consolidation after which there is a huge base of investors that have consolidated at particular price range, and path of lesser resistance is up.
- Etc...

These are all psychology phenomenons, and as such not very reliable, as they get influenced with change of sentiment, but there is some logic and science behind them...

 

[samppa]

I've got a few itm puts, luckily not many and very wide. I've been managing these on weekly basis.
Really considering rolling these to december and be done with it..

 

[OrthoSurg]

I've got a few itm puts, luckily not many and very wide. I've been managing these on weekly basis.
Really considering rolling these to december and be done with it..

That’s what I am hesitating to do too.
What strikes are your ITM puts?

 

[Cattledog]

I've got a few itm puts, luckily not many and very wide. I've been managing these on weekly basis.
Really considering rolling these to december and be done with it..

I rolled mine to January so that I had the potential benefit of another blow-out year-end P/D announcement on January 3, 2023. Just gotta be sure to close out that day and not wait a few weeks...

 

[samppa]

That’s what I am hesitating to do too.
What strikes are your ITM puts?

naked p1120
and spreads -1020/+700

 

[GeoX750]

naked p1120
and spreads -1020/+700

You also don't have to roll all your BPSs, maybe leave a few shorter term?

If you roll your BPSs out, you can make some of them an Iron Condor and sell call spreads at the same expiration for no additional margin as long as you stay within the same spreads and contracts. You can't lose on both.

I know we think TSLA should be at $1500 by end of the year, but the macros may not cooperate.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Twelve post about Ukraine, some of them whole dissertations, have been removed. Even in the main thread they would have been off topic, but in this thread such discussions are a cardinal sin. Don’t let yourself get carried away.

 

[FlamingPIG]

For a noob that doesnt understand Greek option well, this 5 mins video brilliantly explained it

 

[BornToFly]

Twelve post about Ukraine, some of them whole dissertations, have been removed. Even in the main thread they would have been off topic, but in this thread such discussions are a cardinal sin. Don’t let yourself get carried away.

I am not knowledgeable enough to post about Russia/Ukraine, but I disagree with removing all discussion (especially on the weekend when there is no trading). This thread in particular relies on short term stock movements, and I think that the Russia issue, along with the "protestors" shutting down the bridge between Canada/US (impacting trade), are issues we need to be aware of and understand. On the plus side, the market seems to do the opposite of what everyone expects, so at some point it has to go up when everyone thinks it will go down farther....

 

[BornToFly]

For a noob that doesnt understand Greek option well, this 5 mins video brilliantly explained it

That was the best explanation I've ever seen.