The larger logic in these positions is that I've got a pretty strong 'flat to down' bias in the shares for I don't know how long. The Ukraine thing - I really don't have an idea how to think about it, except that if Russia sends 100k troops over the border in a shooting war, the world, world economy, and world stock markets aren't going to like that. At least in the short term.
What I do see is the inflation and market concerns around interest rates and liquidity (read: easy money). With inflation finally responding to all of the money floating around, I see a steady stream of high inflation readings, increasing interest rates, and the end to the Fed monthly bond purchases (finally). The one thing I don't see coming is the Fed starting to sell off any of those bonds. Having that huge buyer stepping out of the market is going to make it more expensive and harder for any company that needs to borrow money (thankfully this doesn't include Tesla).
My conclusion and how I'm acting - we're in a state of dynamic balance with the Tesla share price. The macro picture is in the driver's seat and will stay there for a few months minimum. I can be convinced that we have a year or 2 of this as well.
However the Tesla story (news, execution, technology, demand) is fully intact and I see no evidence that will be changing, leading to buyers stepping in anytime people aren't in a 'sell everything' mood and the share price is too low.
I've seen the shares bounce off the support at 850 a few times now. I'm starting to think that is a support I can work with and possibly the bottom of a trading range. On the high side I have a hard time seeing >1000 because of the macro situation (too many sellers showing up at such a generous price). For the moment I'm thinking in terms of an 850 - 1000 trading range. If we go below 850 then I'd probably be thinking 700 - 850. If we go above then probably 1000-1200, though I consider this unlikely and/or unsustainable.
What I'm really concerned about on the macro side is something more akin to an economic meltdown. Something closer to 50% down for Tesla (600 share price, down from the 1200 high). I do realize that a 50% market down doesn't necessarily mean a 50% down move for Tesla. On such a big drop I expect Tesla to perform better due to how good the Tesla story is, and how it is unaffected by everything going on.
I am encouraged by the high employment and difficulty finding people to hire - if unemployment was a problem, then I'd start worrying about an even bigger market move down.
The other thing I have started thinking about is what a Tesla quarterly 'miss' would do to the share price, and more importantly, my ability to be retired. I figure that an actual miss, as opposed to Wall Street engineering a miss, will create an immediate down day. Maybe even as bad as the Facebook day, and I want to be positioned to be ok with that happening (I really haven't been - too much leverage in use).
I have a better understanding of why the big Facebook impact - it was a direct shot to the FB story. That makes such a Tesla event unlikely in my mind, but it doesn't hurt me to be prepared for that sort of event, and it can hurt me badly to not be prepared.
End result for me - selling aggressive cc all the time (next little while at least), conservative csp on strong down days, and a realization that at my real income want / need, I can be really really conservative on both sides and that's where I'm headed.