Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[adiggs]

I am reflecting on what would be a good moment to close my -p1050 15/7 I opened when the SP was 850 3 weeks ago. Either let them theta decay or close them now since they are already +55%. However it’s a roll from my underwater positions when the SP went to $700 on the Ukrainian war day. I’d need them to expire worthless to cover one of those contracts loss. I have myself some time for the SP to recover, which I was expecting over 6 months. I was wrong obviously.

I would say that you were right on the SP recovering!

That's the thing about timing - you have to get that right also. And with sold options, being close to the end of the option is pretty important for the time value. You might evaluate what a roll to the May monthly (as a for instance) that might be doable for a net credit. With the decreasing time you'll have to pay that back with a higher / more aggressive put strike. That might not be a good roll (my guess is that it won't) but the exercise will at least inform your understanding of the art of the possible. I'd guess something like the May 1150, but that's only a guess.


The fundamental problem I see with rolling positions that are that far out in time, and that are that close to the money, is that they have a huge whack of time value. To roll those, step 1 is to buy out that time value; step 2 is to sell even more time value. Not-advice - my own bias would be to either take the 1/2 win and use the resources for a new position that is actually of your choosing, or just let the current position keep aging.

An important benefit of a July expiration on the sold put is that you're on the other side of the Q2 production report. Realizing that this is still the first week of the new quarter, I have a working assumption that the Q2 production report will be outstanding and match up with a day after price spike like we've seen the last 2 quarters (maybe more - I've only been watching recently). If that sounds right to you, then you'll have some kind of spike with a couple of weeks to go (relatively little time value) that will either provide a good roll opportunity, or set you up for a very high % 'early' close.

 

[BornToFly]

How many quarters have we had good earnings, but something else takes the SP down. This time it could be an extended China shutdown (or multiple shut downs). I have the feeling that 900 is more likely than 1200 in the next two months....

 

[Yoona]

As per my dashboard:

to be explained on Fri if prediction is correct...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How many quarters have we had good earnings, but something else takes the SP down. This time it could be an extended China shutdown (or multiple shut downs). I have the feeling that 900 is more likely than 1200 in the next two months....

Precisely what they want you thinking!

 

[jeewee3000]

Apologies for giving a disagree, but I think in this current macro environment we can't be confident about anything...

I agree there are a lot of ducks aligned for Tesla, but if the last months have "convinced" me anything it is that Tesla, the company, doesn't have much bearing to the short-term share price, it's all about the options flows and macro-economics, fundamentals and company news after that

Sadly

Nothing is certain indeed, especially at times like these.

These positions are infinitely rollable, so I'm not too worried. I'm holding several sold puts and calls with expirations come may, june, august and january. SP goes up -> my puts gain. SP goes down -> my cc's gain.

It's the long con theta play I'm currently going for, whilst getting out of all spreads one at a time. Will take some more months, but the going is smooth. As long as we don't get too many extremely volatile days, I can shift and reposition to take the gains and roll (with) the punches. As long as you have enough cash/margin and you aren't greedy, it's even great fun to do.

 

[jeewee3000]

How many quarters have we had good earnings, but something else takes the SP down. This time it could be an extended China shutdown (or multiple shut downs). I have the feeling that 900 is more likely than 1200 in the next two months....

The main drivers now are inflation/recession fears and Ukrain/Russia. Both can show good or bad macro news. TL;DR: impossible to predict.

For example: Fed accelerates intrest rates hike (bad) but Russia and Ukrain sign a peace treaty (good), who knows how the markets will respond.

 

[Yoona]

Does anyone know where to get/download TSLA PRE-MARKET historical data? high/low

TIA!

 

[jeewee3000]

Does anyone know where to get/download TSLA PRE-MARKET historical data? high/low

TIA!

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/pre-market-trades

See: yes. Download: no clue how.
EDIT: apologies, you meant historical data, which my site doesn't even provide.

 

[BornToFly]

The main drivers now are inflation/recession fears and Ukrain/Russia. Both can show good or bad macro news. TL;DR: impossible to predict.

For example: Fed accelerates intrest rates hike (bad) but Russia and Ukrain sign a peace treaty (good), who knows how the markets will respond.

TSLA won't recover with macros if Q2 production is less than Q1 because there aren't any cars coming out of Shanghai....

 

[jeewee3000]

TSLA won't recover with macros if Q2 production is less than Q1 because there aren't any cars coming out of Shanghai....

Shanghai will open again sooner than later. Plenty of time to catch up to Q1.

 

[elasalle]

Sold Dec 2022, 2000 CC at $34 in one account and got me 137 shares.

was hoping for a better SP, but Shanghai and Fed Recession speak .. means time to make a judgement call. (Should be able to manage).
if SP drops drastically from here, will cycle back to buying Leaps.
cheers!!

 

[UltradoomY]

TSLA won't recover with macros if Q2 production is less than Q1 because there aren't any cars coming out of Shanghai....

I follow a number of twitter people who are local or have relatives in Shanghai.
What they are saying is that while the factory is shut down... the workers are there living and working on site making cars with the parts on hand and upgrading/doing maintenance on equipment.
This helps the reopening process when they can start receiving more materials. Production should be impacted but by less of a margin than a total shutdown like the 2 days in March.

Edit - I will retweet one of the sources on my twitter in a second for anyone that wants to se it - twitter handle below - dont forget to hit the translate button.

 

[phantasms]

Since I've started playing with options again my batting average is literally 0. lol

Anyway....while I got wrecked on my "I'll make a couple dollars and sell a $1050 put this week" I did take the opportunity to close out my Jan 2023 $1300 call that I ended up merging calls and rolling to on the climb. I took a bath on it but IMHO the stock split changes everything. I'm no conspiracy theorist but I've got to wonder if they Tweeted about that split, which they had no reason to at all, because they saw the markets are getting setup for doom and gloom and figured why not soften the blow. Who knows.

I wrote a $950 put for this week. Give me the shares please.

 

[BornToFly]

I sold my 940/790 BPSs way to early yesterday. Starting to worry about my 940 short leg for Friday. Hopefully this is just an aggressive MMD...

 

[Discoducky]

Hi folks, I haven't been closely following this thread as of late as my positions were quarterly puts. Which I've just closed out of for 78 and 84% profit. What a ride these were as I opened them (STO on 2/17/22 and 2/18/22) and they went as high as 85 and 89% profit two days ago, but now I'm seeing another opportunity to open a few more positions as we are riding this final leg lower (I hope) before the macros (SPY, QQQ and IWM) bottom with low'ish volume.

So I'm looking to open puts (STO) this week if TSLA hits ~$1021 or $1000 and I'm eyeing $900, $950, $1000, $1050 and $1100 for exp 7/15/22 (this date gives about a month buffer after Q2 earnings) and exp Aug 15th (even more buffer)

This is my not-advice...

 

[evermore]

Hi folks, I haven't been closely following this thread as of late as my positions were quarterly puts. Which I've just closed out of for 78 and 84% profit. What a ride these were as I opened them (STO on 2/17/22 and 2/18/22) and they went as high as 85 and 89% profit two days ago, but now I'm seeing another opportunity to open a few more positions as we are riding this final leg lower (I hope) before the macros (SPY, QQQ and IWM) bottom with low'ish volume.

So I'm looking to open puts (STO) this week if TSLA hits ~$1021 or $1000 and I'm eyeing $900, $950, $1000, $1050 and $1100 for exp 7/15/22 (this date gives about a month buffer after Q2 earnings) and exp Aug 15th (even more buffer)

This is my not-advice...

The Q2 earnings report is usually in the third week of July. Are your dates one month early?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Looking at last April, there was a moderate spike the equivalent week, followed by another push down. Options charts for the next few weeks look strange (very low put interest), as well as having low MaxPain, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a gap filling push down to $1040 if we break $1053.

So, there it was, just like the charts said.

 

[juanmedina]

I decided to free up some of my Dec 1200cc calls but not all of them. I also sold a 1045 put yesterday .

 

[Discoducky]

The Q2 earnings report is usually in the third week of July. Are your dates one month early?

Thx for catching that and yes, should have said July and Aug!

Looks like SPY is about to test resistance....hopefully it holds!

 

[samppa]

I have some december -p1100 puts, just now I rolled 1 put to 3 BPS: apr 29 -p1090/+p800. Slight credit and a minimal change in maintenance margin.
Left the other december puts untouched, lets see if I can get rid of these like this..