Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

IIRC Berlin gets drive units from Shanghai right now too- both that and cells will be local production eventually but not yet AFAIK.

Also unclear if any china lockdowns will impact Fremont LFP production since AFAIK those cells still all come from China

 

[CHGolferJim]

I've been waiting for someone to discuss this issue. I'm adding a tweet thread below for context. It could be a few weeks before they reopen, which could be half of Shanghai production, or more this quarter. Berlin also gets batteries from China. I think this could lead to some short term issues, before moving back to highs as China reopens and Austin & Berlin start cranking up production. Fremont is also working to add capacity, so theoretical capacity could be increasing faster than expected by the market. I sold fairly aggressive CC's this week at 1100 and 1200. I may regret it, but feel it helps reduce risk from my LEAPS.
Interesting thread from Shanghai:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512734595485106179

That is a fascinating read, the writer has a remarkable understanding of colloquial English.

 

[dc_h]

That is a fascinating read, the writer has a remarkable understanding of colloquial English.

Thanks, I’ve been working on it my whole life.

 

[BornToFly]

On Friday I sold cash secured Puts for my mom - 950 strike, 4/22 exp. thinking that ER would provide support. With Q2 looking more and more like a busted quarter, I'm afraid we are going to drop much lower, which means selling CC on shares purchased at 950 might not provide much income. I wish I had waited until Monday or Tuesday. We'll see.... We can't seem to catch a break.

I already rolled a couple 1100 strike puts out two weeks for credit. Obviously I could roll the 950s out and down for 0 credit, or eventually try rolling the 950s out for credit, but the deeper ITM, the less income for the roll.

 

[kcveins]

This Friday is Good Friday and the markets will be closed. Anyone know if this Thursday is a monthly closing option session? @Papafox thought this might be the case..

 

[AquaY]

This Friday is Good Friday and the markets will be closed. Anyone know if this Thursday is a monthly closing option session? @Papafox thought this might be the case..

Yes It is.

 

[Max Plaid]

As I expected, things going down the shitter... I'm looking to risk-off mostly to cash, thankfully I have sold calls against all my LEAPS to has mitigated the recent down-turn, but not fully, and those 5/20 May +p900's are giving some comfort right now...

I'll be keeping my 70x AAPL Jan 24 c150's, mainly because I sold Jun -c150's against those, so may as well see how that plays out

I'm going to close 15x of the 20x c3000 GOOGL I have accumulated, with the DCA I'm about breaking-even on those, I'll keep 5x to play about with and for the pending 20:1 split, but as these are already quite DITM, seems like too much capital at risk for the moment

I'm planning to keep hold of the 5x TSLA Jan 24 c700's, they're deep enough ITM to be comfortable

Harder decision is the 10c TSLA Jun 23 c800's, strongly considering offloading these. Other possibility is to sell aggressive calls against them on the assumption we're going down... but if we go down and stay down, it's also quite a bit of money at risk

Looking to switch to dOTM safe spreads from this point onwards, reducing my expectations dramatically

Tesla long term will boss it, medium term macro is the issue, and short term GF3 closure will push it down

 

[CHGolferJim]

As I expected, things going down the shitter... I'm looking to risk-off mostly to cash, thankfully I have sold calls against all my LEAPS to has mitigated the recent down-turn, but not fully, and those 5/20 May +p900's are giving some comfort right now...

I'll be keeping my 70x AAPL Jan 24 c150's, mainly because I sold Jun -c150's against those, so may as well see how that plays out

I'm going to close 15x of the 20x c3000 GOOGL I have accumulated, with the DCA I'm about breaking-even on those, I'll keep 5x to play about with and for the pending 20:1 split, but as these are already quite DITM, seems like too much capital at risk for the moment

I'm planning to keep hold of the 5x TSLA Jan 24 c700's, they're deep enough ITM to be comfortable

Harder decision is the 10c TSLA Jun 23 c800's, strongly considering offloading these. Other possibility is to sell aggressive calls against them on the assumption we're going down... but if we go down and stay down, it's also quite a bit of money at risk

Looking to switch to dOTM safari spreads from this point onwards, reducing my expectations dramatically

Tesla long term will boss it, medium term macro is the issue, and short term GF3 closure will push it down

Had been seeing your recent comments as between best and pessimistic cases, but now the threat to Chinese production does seem to be rising. Too early in the ramps for Berlin and Austin to cover if the shortfall is meaningful. That raises the possibility that 1Q numbers even if outstanding could be seen as a bit of a blip if 2Q is flat or slightly declining — the market will hate that and give back some or all of the recent $300 spike. That may have started, although that scenario assumes there is any correlation at all between fundamentals and short-term movement. Thinking I will take this opportunity to roll maybe 1/2 of OTM May-August CC and use proceeds to close the rest, and tighten the time frames and strikes on the buy-writes so they don’t become 6-month holdings, and HODL shares. The recent month is making me think bollinger bands have more signaling power than previously thought.

 

[ninpb]

STO 4/14 1080CC for 3.09 10min too early. 10% OTM is not my style but short week and CPI tomorrow.

 

[BornToFly]

Sold BCS 1200/1350 at the small climb at the open. Normally I would wait, but I don't think we get much higher this week.

 

[BornToFly]

Waiting for lower to open BPSs for Thursday.

 

[Yoona]

1027 seems to be the floor the last 2 days this week. I am still at 961 just to be safe, and will not creep up. I backtested TSLA historical data (June 2010 to today, 613 weeks) and concluded that 961-1239 is my Iron Condor safe range this week.

View attachment 791009

my IC this week is possibly 860-1120

 

[Max Plaid]

Had been seeing your recent comments as between best and pessimistic cases, but now the threat to Chinese production does seem to be rising. Too early in the ramps for Berlin and Austin to cover if the shortfall is meaningful. That raises the possibility that 1Q numbers even if outstanding could be seen as a bit of a blip if 2Q is flat or slightly declining — the market will hate that and give back some or all of the recent $300 spike. That may have started, although that scenario assumes there is any correlation at all between fundamentals and short-term movement. Thinking I will take this opportunity to roll maybe 1/2 of OTM May-August CC and use proceeds to close the rest, and tighten the time frames and strikes on the buy-writes so they don’t become 6-month holdings, and HODL shares. The recent month is making me think bollinger bands have more signaling power than previously thought.

I'm as bullish as anyone on $TSLA, HODLed all the way from 2016 until last year, but since then I became more fatalistic about it after seeing the crazy volatility from the options markets and the macro events

And honestly, when I look at the macro right now, I see no reason for indexes to go up, and plenty for them to go down, and then with Tesla we have the Shanghai situation too, so I'm really feeling bearish right now

Anyway, I adjusted things as I said, de-risked my GOOGL, positioned more for downside from here, but shouldn't lose on the upside either

Key to this bravado is writing ITM TSLA weeklies with the understanding that if the SP goes up I may well have to sell the underlying LEAPS, would be a shame, but better to not make gains than to lose money (as I have been consistently doing this year when buying-out bad positions), but if the SP drops then I've hedged the losses on the LEAP values with the ITM calls

All sound very clever, I don't know, we'll see, but I'll sleep better at night, for sure!

 

[BornToFly]

my IC this week is possibly 860-1120

Your 860 is only 12.3% below the open. If we get more of a drop I will open 780 or 800 short legs.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I'm as bullish as anyone on $TSLA, HODLed all the way from 2016 until last year, but since then I became more fatalistic about it after seeing the crazy volatility from the options markets and the macro events

And honestly, when I look at the macro right now, I see no reason for indexes to go up, and plenty for them to go down, and then with Tesla we have the Shanghai situation too, so I'm really feeling bearish right now

Anyway, I adjusted things as I said, de-risked my GOOGL, positioned more for downside from here, but shouldn't lose on the upside either

Key to this bravado is writing ITM TSLA weeklies with the understanding that if the SP goes up I may well have to sell the underlying LEAPS, would be a shame, but better to not make gains than to lose money (as I have been consistently doing this year when buying-out bad positions), but if the SP drops then I've hedged the losses on the LEAP values with the ITM calls

All sound very clever, I don't know, we'll see, but I'll sleep better at night, for sure!

Largely agree, considering cashing out of all non-TSLA taxables for same rationale. Only trade last week worked well: 0429-c$1300 sto 4/4 $24.18 --> btc 4/8 $5.00 for an 80% profit in 4 days of a 25 DTE cc. Unfortunately, only 1 contract, lol.

 

[chiller]

So much bearish sentiment here that I feel like we must go up.

NOT ADVICE!

Edit: Rolled my 1030P for this Thursday, to 22th of april (+8 days) for 21.55 credit

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I'm as bullish as anyone on $TSLA, HODLed all the way from 2016 until last year, but since then I became more fatalistic about it after seeing the crazy volatility from the options markets and the macro events

And honestly, when I look at the macro right now, I see no reason for indexes to go up, and plenty for them to go down, and then with Tesla we have the Shanghai situation too, so I'm really feeling bearish right now

Anyway, I adjusted things as I said, de-risked my GOOGL, positioned more for downside from here, but shouldn't lose on the upside either

Key to this bravado is writing ITM TSLA weeklies with the understanding that if the SP goes up I may well have to sell the underlying LEAPS, would be a shame, but better to not make gains than to lose money (as I have been consistently doing this year when buying-out bad positions), but if the SP drops then I've hedged the losses on the LEAP values with the ITM calls

All sound very clever, I don't know, we'll see, but I'll sleep better at night, for sure!

Something to research with a CPA is IF this is in a taxable account in the US, you want to make sure that if your sold calls are exercised that you (or your broker) sell the leaps and then purchase the shares. This locks in long term capital gains on your leaps. The other scenario is if they are exercised this results in short term capital gains. Reading the IRS forms this appears to be true, however I have not personally experienced this so don't have first hand knowledge.

 

[scubastevo80]

After a fun filled week of TWTR, I'm back to TSLA - wrote 4/14 BPS 840/740 around the open for $0.90. Missed the morning spike, but wrote 4/14 BCS 1090/1190 for $1.15. I feel like we're limited on the upside until we get clarity on Shanghai, especially given the news says the outbreak is spreading.

 

[Max Plaid]

Guys - as of last week, Puru was bullish, expecting growth to breakout, he has now turned bearish and is hedging the down-side. Doesn't mean he's correct, but it's another data-point, always do you own research, make up you own minds, not an advice, nada nada

Note that according to The Stocks Channel, $QQQ close below $347 resistance is bearish, dropping below $340 is extremely bearish as these are the last two main supports...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513301354055606272

 

[juanmedina]

Meanwhile I am here closing my long term covered call at a slight loss. As always my timing is impeccable .