Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[TheTalkingMule]

Guys - as of last week, Puru was bullish, expecting growth to breakout, he has now turned bearish and is hedging the down-side. Doesn't mean he's correct, but it's another data-point, always do you own research, make up you own minds, not an advice, nada nada

Note that according to The Stocks Channel, $QQQ close below $347 resistance is bearish, dropping below $340 is extremely bearish as these are the last two main supports...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1513301354055606272

So which is it, do my own research or listen to some guy on YouTube?

GOOG is back down to a PE of 23, with nearly 100% earnings growth. I'd love to know what multiple this guy feels is appropriate if QQQ is poised to drop.

 

[AquaY]

So which is it, do my own research or listen to some guy on YouTube?

GOOG is back down to a PE of 23, with nearly 100% earnings growth. I'd love to know what multiple this guy feels is appropriate if QQQ is poised to drop.

Listen to your own guy on youtube

 

[Max Plaid]

So which is it, do my own research or listen to some guy on YouTube?

GOOG is back down to a PE of 23, with nearly 100% earnings growth. I'd love to know what multiple this guy feels is appropriate if QQQ is poised to drop.

I listen to many, but make my own decisions. Which are usually wrong and badly timed, but that's beside the point

Can't disagree, individual stocks and companies look great, but macro doesn't always discriminate

 

[jeewee3000]

The thing with all this bearishness is that it will end someday, and it will end abruptly without any warning.

We'll wake up to a pre-market +2% macros and +4% TSLA and see it shooting up.

Reasons could be:
- any "the war is over" announcement;
- any "China is changing COVID tactics" announcement with positive influence on lockdowns/economy;
- insert FED comments that are seen as positive;
- ...

So I'm not comfortable opening cc's or hedging a lot to the downside personally. I see TSLA recovering by the fall either way. (Q2 might dissappoint, but Q3 won't).

Not advice.

 

[UltradoomY]

The thing with all this bearishness is that it will end someday, and it will end abruptly without any warning.

We'll wake up to a pre-market +2% macros and +4% TSLA and see it shooting up.

Reasons could be:
- any "the war is over" announcement;
- any "China is changing COVID tactics" announcement with positive influence on lockdowns/economy;
- insert FED comments that are seen as positive;
- ...

So I'm not comfortable opening cc's or hedging a lot to the downside personally. I see TSLA recovering by the fall either way. (Q2 might dissappoint, but Q3 won't).

Not advice.

Totally agree, and what is also looming is a stock split - after the proxy goes out to share holders in front of the annual meeting.
TSLA will rip some faces when that happens, reported shorting by FINRA has been pretty high so far this year compared to the end of last year and so far the shorts have eaten well.
The time for Bulls to feast is close, but maybe not before some more CPI, Covid and war.

 

[jeewee3000]

Totally agree, and what is also looming is a stock split - after the proxy goes out to share holders in front of the annual meeting.
TSLA will rip some faces when that happens, reported shorting by FINRA has been pretty high so far this year compared to the end of last year and so far the shorts have eaten well.
The time for Bulls to feast is close, but maybe not before some more CPI, Covid and war.

Yes, I even forgot to mention the split. However as of right now that is priced in. The short covering however, is not.

Also like to add that a lot of the current reasons for bearishness are IMO largely priced in. (war, COVID lockdowns, Shanghai lockdowns, inflation) Without these the SP would be +$1150 easily.

 

[intelligator]

Thinking of rolling a 4/14 1025/965 bps to next week for debit, drawing from the initial credit and credit to get it here this week, improving strike down short leg to 1000... I'm not feeling it. A far out roll to Q3 would tie up margin some. Are the week or weeks leading to earnings, P&D typically better targets? This hasn't been exactly the case for Q1/Q2 but these are uncertain times.

EDIT: rolled down and out to 4/22 -985/+925 BPS with plan to close out at first sight of green next week.

 

[corduroy]

I rolled my 4/14 -960p's to 4/22 -900s for $5.5. I don't really trust today's rally, I'm still thinking -960 could be tested this week. So I wanted to get ahead of that, grab a nice credit and strike improvement.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Sold -c1050s-c1060s near the $1020 AM peak. Not great prices, and I’ll still end with another week’s loss (bought calls on Friday), but trying to recover just a bit. Also, decided to roll in and down a Jan23 -p1000 ($188) to 4/14 -p990 ($10) for a huge debit but somewhat well-timed ($10 SP difference on the two sequential trades), so relatively happy. I’m willing to take shares at $990, but believe the SP stays between $1000-$1050, hence the mini-straddle. In any case, this helps me get back into selling straddles after the disasterous forced put rolls to Jan23.

Edit: oops, looks like I should have waited on that put sell. Oh well, at least it’s cash secured.

Edit: sure looks like we will pin near $1000 for Friday close.

 

[Yoona]

quick 7% daytrade in 1 hr, closed

 

[bkp_duke]

Sold -c1050s-c1060s near the $1020 AM peak.

Given action in the past few minutes, I would bet this trade has done well today already.

 

[bkp_duke]

Debating a 865/890 BPS for 4/22 exp.

What's the "not advice" for this? Too close to the money? 200 day MA is at 885, and we would have to break multiple levels of support to hit that by the 22nd.

My only concern is how much longer Shanghai stays offline or in reduced production. That could really weigh on the stock, and I don't have confidence that Berlin and Austin can ramp up enough this quarter to pick up the slack.

 

[adiggs]

Debating a 865/890 BPS for 4/22 exp.

What's the "not advice" for this? Too close to the money? 200 day MA is at 885, and we would have to break multiple levels of support to hit that by the 22nd.

My only concern is how much longer Shanghai stays offline or in reduced production. That could really weigh on the stock, and I don't have confidence that Berlin and Austin can ramp up enough this quarter to pick up the slack.

Sounds closer to the money than I'd go for 4/22 expiration. I expect good results announced on 4/20; results that support the long term business outcome.

But I see too many possible negatives from the earnings call / results.
1) Investors already expect good results and its priced in.
2) Macro dominates despite good things in the call / report.
3) Tesla doesn't report continued leverage from increasing revenue into earnings.
4) Elon is on the call and goes off on tangents that get long term buy-n-hold excited, but hurts the share price in the short term.
5) Guides to Q2 being not as good as we expect right now
...

The point is that a 900 share price on sell-the-news type reaction isn't unreachable, MHO.

I've got 950 csp for this week. It wouldn't surprise me if I have 900s for next week but they'd be csp - not put spreads - so I can roll down as far as necessary / as long as possible if that downside manifests.

 

[traxila]

Debating a 865/890 BPS for 4/22 exp.

What's the "not advice" for this? Too close to the money? 200 day MA is at 885, and we would have to break multiple levels of support to hit that by the 22nd.

My only concern is how much longer Shanghai stays offline or in reduced production. That could really weigh on the stock, and I don't have confidence that Berlin and Austin can ramp up enough this quarter to pick up the slack.

Assuming no news of any opening in Shanghai by this date, are you comfortable with those prices?

You are correct, Berlin and Austin cannot pick up the slack. Probably won't even make up for one month production out of Shanghai between the two of them this quarter.

 

[adiggs]

Update - yesterday I closed my 1100 calls for this week. Those were ~$14 in and $1 out; can't complain about that.

I did use the pop this morning to open 1100 calls for next week a bit under $12. I was able to employ several of my 'rules' in this move. (1) Close today, open tomorrow (at the soonest). (2) Open into strength. That means opening calls on a move up. (3) Don't reopen a position for the same expiration (chase the share price). I moved out 1 week for the new 1100 strike calls.


Was thinking, earlier this morning, about closing my 950 puts expiring this week for 40% gains. That ship has sailed and I'm hanging onto them for now. I consider 950 to be very reachable this week, but time is also getting short and they're cash secured, so a lot of flexibility in this position. The rolling option right now is to 850 and next week for a trivial credit - I'd probably go 880 for ~$4 credit if I were rolling right now.


I'm still sticking to scc and csp exclusively. I am also hoping, more than not, for a strong move down in the share price - something like $800 or so. I have a lot of cash I'd like to use buying new shares while they're on sale. My guess is that we see 900 by end of month (really a guess; not-advice) and I'll start buying then. Maybe 1/2 at 900 and the other 1/2 at 800 sort of numbers.

That next round of share purchases I plan to be max date / DITM leaps. DITM will mean 1/2 share price or lower strikes (so 450s when the shares are 900). Gets me a bit of leverage by selling more calls than using shares as backing, mostly through selling more calls than I would be able to sell using scc.

I am also planning on adding some low leverage BPS as the share price goes down and we get away from earnings. Something like $300 wide spreads (trivial insurance put price) and selling ~2x as I'd sell as csp.

 

[juanmedina]

Wow this would be catastrophic

 

[Yoona]

Debating a 865/890 BPS for 4/22 exp.

What's the "not advice" for this? Too close to the money? 200 day MA is at 885, and we would have to break multiple levels of support to hit that by the 22nd.

My only concern is how much longer Shanghai stays offline or in reduced production. That could really weigh on the stock, and I don't have confidence that Berlin and Austin can ramp up enough this quarter to pick up the slack.

Based on data from the last 4 years. I compared Current Week Tue Open against Next Week Fri Close.

In 2022: next week's Fri Close is about -10% to +16% from current week's Tue Open.

(obviously, no data for 4/5 since 4/15 hasn't happened yet)

 

[BornToFly]

Next week could be a bit of a Black Swan. Sometimes the Tesla team, and Elon, focus too much on the possible negatives during the earnings call. I know they are trying to be honest, but if something is unlikely to happen, they don't make that clear enough to the analysts and reporters listening to the call. So if there is a small chance the Shanghai closure continues for a while, all everyone will hear is that it won't come online and Q2 will be a disaster. I'm not getting closer than 20% OTM with any BPS next week.

 

[jaspa]

Next week could be a bit of a Black Swan. Sometimes the Tesla team, and Elon, focus too much on the possible negatives during the earnings call. I know they are trying to be honest, but if something is unlikely to happen, they don't make that clear enough to the analysts and reporters listening to the call. So if there is a small chance the Shanghai closure continues for a while, all everyone will hear is that it won't come online and Q2 will be a disaster. I'm not getting closer than 20% OTM with any BPS.

Do we have any indication whether Elon will be on the earnings call for Q1? I think he skipped Q3 2021, but came back for year end. I thought the idea was he be handing off these corporate activities?

 

[BornToFly]

Do we have any indication whether Elon will be on the earnings call for Q1? I think he skipped Q3 2021, but came back for year end. I thought the idea was he be handing off these corporate activities?

I have no idea, but if he does participate, I see that as a negative for the SP (just because of all the "challenges" that he likes to beat to death).