paging the experts... i don't get it, how does MarketRebellion know 4/22 1050 is buy/bullish by looking at volume? it could also be interpreted as sell/bearish, no?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
scubastevo80
Member
Opened 4/14 BCS 1095/1150 around the open for $1.05 and closed just after 11am for $0.50. I still have the BPS 840/790 and BCS 1090/1190 which are up 85% and 77% respectively. I'm likely closing the BPS tomorrow and rolling down and out a week (thinking something like 820/720 for a $2.50 net credit). I also may go 2 weeks out if I can get $4 on something sub $800. I'm staying 15% out for 6-8 DTE and 20% for anything between 8-12 DTE.
Edit: I'm interested in the run up (or lack thereof) going into Q1 numbers. My personal opinion is that the numbers and call will be overlooked if China isn't reopened by the earnings call. For my long-term accounts, I believe the thesis remains in tact and this short term pressure on car delivery doesn't impact R&D advancements (FSD, new products, finalizing Cybertruck, etc) but does delay or limit the exponential growth rates we've seen until now. I also think we are limited by macros for at least the next 6-12 months.
My not-advice personal view impacts the parents' account for option trading, given we will likely have short-term volatility continue to increase (just look at what the VIX did in Jan and March). I could also see analysts lowering price targets (given their targets are short-term focused) which will weigh on the stock price. I intend to keep our spreads meaningfully out of the money and will try to watch out for continued pressure in one direction (ie. 8 consecutive up days in mid-March (+29%) or 4 consecutive down days in mid-Feb (-19%).
Edit: I'm interested in the run up (or lack thereof) going into Q1 numbers. My personal opinion is that the numbers and call will be overlooked if China isn't reopened by the earnings call. For my long-term accounts, I believe the thesis remains in tact and this short term pressure on car delivery doesn't impact R&D advancements (FSD, new products, finalizing Cybertruck, etc) but does delay or limit the exponential growth rates we've seen until now. I also think we are limited by macros for at least the next 6-12 months.
My not-advice personal view impacts the parents' account for option trading, given we will likely have short-term volatility continue to increase (just look at what the VIX did in Jan and March). I could also see analysts lowering price targets (given their targets are short-term focused) which will weigh on the stock price. I intend to keep our spreads meaningfully out of the money and will try to watch out for continued pressure in one direction (ie. 8 consecutive up days in mid-March (+29%) or 4 consecutive down days in mid-Feb (-19%).
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willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but it's my understanding that they look at the bid and ask prices of the option at the point that block was transacted. If it went for a price above the ask, that's bullish. Or bearish if below the bid.
Probably because the open interest was only 1,631 at the start of the day, so about half of the 13,639 would have had to be opens. But it very well could have been most of them. (We will know more tomorrow morning.)
I also would see it as a negative, though mostly because I think there are better things for him to do with his time. In this particular instance, his absence helps reinforce the idea that there is more to Tesla than just Elon. It is really, really important to my long term investment thesis that Tesla will be hurt by Elon's departure / untimely demise, but that it isn't the end of the company, the innovation, or the progress on the mission.
Elon not being present means somebody(s) else is answering the questions and being the face of the company. Elon can do a podcast or something after the earnings call in more of a long form / chat kind of format where he can talk about things more conceptual and longer term. I think its the stuff he finds most interesting anyway and he can use that forum to reinforce those long term company drivers he think most important. While putting others forward as the face of the company.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Were you not already pricing this in? 273k to me seems like a best case scenario at this point. (310k in Q1)-(60k for the month of April in Shanghai.)=250k
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Are they simply referring to the $1050 strike being above current SP? Also if volume were that high it pretty much has to be straight purchases since there wasn't too much open interest to start the day. Perhaps they can also just see the order flow?
I see this move as being similar to that weird pile of 12k+ $1550 calls that magically appeared a week before the split was announced and P&D came in. Just a random huge bet that likely paid off 100-250% on the "surprise" split news.
This one is a pretty big position. If it's 6,000 contracts at ~$20 that's $12M right? Be nice to turn that into $50M+ in 10 days.
in my unqualified opinion, reading these transactions from the sideline is like reading tea leaves because you neither know the intentions of the buyer/seller nor the bigger picture with regards to the overall position.
It might be a hedge for some institutional investor moving money around or waiting for a cash inflow (e.g. to hedge a $1.2bn position in TSLA, paying $12M in premium is 1%). It might be part of a calendar spread or ratio spread. It might be another MM delta/gamma-hedging their exposure. Who knows.
It might be a hedge for some institutional investor moving money around or waiting for a cash inflow (e.g. to hedge a $1.2bn position in TSLA, paying $12M in premium is 1%). It might be part of a calendar spread or ratio spread. It might be another MM delta/gamma-hedging their exposure. Who knows.
STO Monday $1005 CC's - for $20 each - closed this morning at open for $5 each....
Have open order to STO again at $10 each - $1k feels (that's it, no analysis) like the ceiling this week.
If I can get $25 for shares I want sold then I am happy, if not... will try again next week with aggressive CC's
Edit - STO again for $10 each hit....
Have open order to STO again at $10 each - $1k feels (that's it, no analysis) like the ceiling this week.
If I can get $25 for shares I want sold then I am happy, if not... will try again next week with aggressive CC's
Edit - STO again for $10 each hit....
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scubastevo80
Member
I'm looking at some CC's for my retirement account in the 3-6 months out range. More specifically, considering the 9/16/22 $1500's for $30. My logic is that if we're getting 50% returns in under 6 months in the midst of a coming recession and supply chain/factory uncertainty, I'll take it. This is an extra 3% return or 6% annualized, which I'd be happy with. Certainly we could get some ridiculous return in a short period of time, but this is still 30% above all time highs.
Any not advice that would consider the other side of this argument? PS - can't trade short term in this account, so anything under 3 months if off limits for me.
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
Curious as to why anyone would be trying to sell puts less than a week out before earnings?
With Shanghai numbers down I would think that no number is actually safe even if you don't mind owning the stock.
I am eager to sell some more puts but feel that it's smarter to be patient and wait until after earnings. Any thoughts?
With Shanghai numbers down I would think that no number is actually safe even if you don't mind owning the stock.
I am eager to sell some more puts but feel that it's smarter to be patient and wait until after earnings. Any thoughts?
Can you roll in this account? If so then don't go that far from the money. If so then I would be looking at the $1250's for that date - more than double the money and just above all time highs - you could always roll them out if it gets breached and close them early if we get dunked because of Q2 production.
It's really hard to say unless you can articulate what your investment thesis is for this account.
It sounds like you are expecting a pull back anyway..
jeewee3000
Active Member
The trailing twelve month P/E ratio will drop after next weeks numbers (which shouldn't be too affected by lockdowns since we know the delivery number was OK).
This time the one time items from last quarter should not occur (for example Elon compensation plan) so we should have a better bottom line with similar or better revenues than last quarter, and greater margins.
If the market is not expecting this (and just compares QoQ with little thought), the response could be positive. The big wild card IMO is what and how Tesla will communicate regarding expectations for Q2 (China lockdowns, Austin/Berlin ramp).
TL;DR: stock could drop but could revisit +$1000 as well.
I tried to sell long term calls twice so far but so far I have failed with my timing. If my timing was right I would have cleared $250-210k. You should have sold those calls when we hit $1100+ the other day
. On my third try I think I am going to wait to sell long term calls when the SP is above AH or close to it.This week turned out well I sold $1070 and $1100 CC this week and I just sold a few $1120 CC for next week for $8. I am kind of waiting for IV to pick up to sell some more. I still have 6x 1200cc December waiting for a pull back to close them for a little profit.
Wait for the right time to do this. If you had sold just 10 days ago you would have gotten more than double. Hopefully we'll get a jump around earnings and the return will be better. Find yourself a chart of the option price history to see how it reacts:
scubastevo80
Member
The account is my rollover IRA, which is generally long-term holdings (50% TSLA, other 50% is large caps, other tech/growth stocks, and ARK/GBTC holdings). The goal here is to simply juice returns a bit to buy more TSLA shares - ie. sell 1 $30cc and buy 3 more shares. Unlike the parents account, I can't roll weekly/monthly (in this account) because of firm compliance restrictions on personal trading.
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
What would the trailing PE ratio dropping do to the stock price, in theory?
How would you be calculating the floor prices of the stock running up to earnings?
Selling quarterlies feels like vacation after doing weeklies for 6 months.
My puts are +50% green and my CCs are +50% green. Now I am just waiting patiently for theta decay and hoping Shanghai doesn’t open up too fast not to get my 1500CCs for August called away :X
My puts are +50% green and my CCs are +50% green. Now I am just waiting patiently for theta decay and hoping Shanghai doesn’t open up too fast not to get my 1500CCs for August called away :X
My brother is a little devil on my shoulder. (His idea) Rolled in my 1250/1400 BCS to 1080/1230 for tomorrow, and my 800/650 BPS to 900/750.... 
(The next 27 hours were going to be so relaxing..., not anymore....
)
(The next 27 hours were going to be so relaxing..., not anymore....
)
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