Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Discoducky]

I'm in for 2 more puts @$1000 exp Aug 19th. Just so folks know, I STO these but don't hold them even close to expiry, when selling these as the market/macros turn they seem to get into the profit at some point (I trigger at >70%) and I'm also willing to roll if necessary.

Got 1 yesterday @$1000 exp Sept 16th

I get that folks think we could see $900 again and while I think that is possible, I don't think it is probable we'll stay there long.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

1027 seems to be the floor the last 2 days this week. I am still at 961 just to be safe, and will not creep up. I backtested TSLA historical data (June 2010 to today, 613 weeks) and concluded that 961-1239 is my Iron Condor safe range this week.

View attachment 791009

It would be interesting to see the chart as IC width divided by SP (or % OTM)

I suspect it will not be constant and rather it would have similar shape as historical volatility (prorated from yearly value to 4 days), probably looking like this:
(this is from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - Historical Volatility (Close-to-Close) (10-Day))

 

[adiggs]

I'm in for 2 more puts @$1000 exp Aug 19th. Just so folks know, I STO these but don't hold them even close to expiry, when selling these as the market/macros turn they seem to get into the profit at some point (I trigger at >70%) and I'm also willing to roll if necessary.

Got 1 yesterday @$1000 exp Sept 16th

I get that folks think we could see $900 again and while I think that is possible, I don't think it is probable we'll stay there long.

I tend to agree with this - that we might see $900 again, but we won't be visiting for long.

My one addition is that whatever your view is on the macro (non-Tesla) factors influencing the TSLA share price, my not-advice is to make sure that you give them as much weight as you think important. This was a critical part of my start of the year mistake - I got too focused on the great Tesla Story, not enough on the environment in which TSLA exists, and got burned by the blizzard of bad macro stuff that overtook and dominated TSLA valuation (share price).

Thus I try to keep both big picture buckets in mind when I think about timing / direction / magnitude from here.

 

[cbh03]

I'm in for 2 more puts @$1000 exp Aug 19th. Just so folks know, I STO these but don't hold them even close to expiry, when selling these as the market/macros turn they seem to get into the profit at some point (I trigger at >70%) and I'm also willing to roll if necessary.

Got 1 yesterday @$1000 exp Sept 16th

I get that folks think we could see $900 again and while I think that is possible, I don't think it is probable we'll stay there long.

If you don't mind sharing, are you using the proceeds from these put sales to buy shares, buy calls/LEAPs, or otherwise invest in TSLA?

 

[Discoducky]

My one addition is that whatever your view is on the macro (non-Tesla) factors influencing the TSLA share price, my not-advice is to make sure that you give them as much weight as you think important.

Totally and that was my mistake as well. I bought some calls that expired worthless when the invasion started. I've recovered by selling conservative puts, but it burned me and I won't forget it. Lesson learned.

 

[Discoducky]

If you don't mind sharing, are you using the proceeds from these put sales to buy shares, buy calls/LEAPs, or otherwise invest in TSLA?

Sure, I'm retired based on the proceeds from selling options so I use these mostly for regular income.

What I've found over the course of doing this two years is that buying weekly or monthly calls is gambling (IMHO), but selling calls/puts for monthly/quarterly (while watching macros closely, which means for me, following FED/FOMC stuff and geopolitical, while having a good understanding of the always underlying TA (Technical Analysis).

For instance, I'm buying selling puts right now as it seems that macros are poised to go back to a bull market in the next week or two based on all the stuff I mentioned above.

 

[jeewee3000]

For instance, I'm buying puts right now as it seems that macros are poised to go back to a bull market in the next week or two based on all the stuff I mentioned above.

Did you make a typo? Are you buying calls, or selling puts, or are you expecting a bear market? It doesn't add up as you've written it, IMO.

 

[Discoducky]

Did you make a typo? Are you buying calls, or selling puts, or are you expecting a bear market? It doesn't add up as you've written it, IMO.

You are right, my typo, I'm selling puts and I'm expecting a bull market. Thanks for catching that! I'll edit the post.

 

[john tanglewoo]

Guys very excited, after my first 2 sold put positions returned me over 60% (took 2 weeks) and 70% (took only 1 week)...
...I saw Tesla jump 20% or so on the Giga Berlin news, so I wanted to try the other side - I sold 4 contracts 2 weeks ago for April 22 1230 calls (19.00 premium), planning on being out well before earnings and Cyber Austin.

Well it took a little squirming (stock split news sent it way higher than I anticipated), but I was able to close my calls today at 7.50 or just over 60% profit! And go figure right after I closed those out the premium and stock jumped way back up.

I've now played both sides and while a little hairy at times, I'm starting to understand the ebbs and flows. Appreciate all this forum has had to offer!

 

[WattsHappening]

Guys very excited, after my first 2 sold put positions returned me over 60% (took 2 weeks) and 70% (took only 1 week)...
...I saw Tesla jump 20% or so on the Giga Berlin news, so I wanted to try the other side - I sold 4 contracts 2 weeks ago for April 22 1230 calls (19.00 premium), planning on being out well before earnings and Cyber Austin.

Well it took a little squirming (stock split news sent it way higher than I anticipated), but I was able to close my calls today at 7.50 or just over 60% profit! And go figure right after I closed those out the premium and stock jumped way back up.

I've now played both sides and while a little hairy at times, I'm starting to understand the ebbs and flows. Appreciate all this forum has had to offer!

Congrats!

Just be careful. The stock market has a way of chewing up and spitting out those who get some confidence and then make bigger bets based on past performance.

Ask me how I know.

 

[adiggs]

Guys very excited, after my first 2 sold put positions returned me over 60% (took 2 weeks) and 70% (took only 1 week)...
...I saw Tesla jump 20% or so on the Giga Berlin news, so I wanted to try the other side - I sold 4 contracts 2 weeks ago for April 22 1230 calls (19.00 premium), planning on being out well before earnings and Cyber Austin.

Well it took a little squirming (stock split news sent it way higher than I anticipated), but I was able to close my calls today at 7.50 or just over 60% profit! And go figure right after I closed those out the premium and stock jumped way back up.

I've now played both sides and while a little hairy at times, I'm starting to understand the ebbs and flows. Appreciate all this forum has had to offer!

Congratulations on the good start, and welcome.

An early theme of the thread is the idea of keeping it slow, small (full loss won't hurt badly), and ideally - making money while gaining the education. The way I think of this - if this is something that you might be doing months, quarters, or even years from now, then it really doesn't matter how fast / aggressive / profitable things are right now. Its more important to be gaining the experience and developing your own approach to risk / stomach acid / euphoria / .. that is sustainable.

The education really is the valuable part, not the profit from individual trades. Or so I believe anyway. Besides - where else do you get paid to learn?

 

[Yoona]

Friday is crunch time. This is where money finally meets my purse. After 4 days of manipulation, plus the Fri pre-market positioning, one would suspect the Fri Open is well-positioned to be near the Fri Close target.

It turns out that in 2022, the Fri Close is about -6% to +4% of Fri Open. Good to know in case i need to adjust my strike.

For ex, if Fri Open is 1000 then Close is about 940-1040.

In the last 200 Fridays, the Fri Close is about -8% to 11% of Fri Open. Visually, it's more like -5 to +5.

NOT ADVICE

 

[Max Plaid]

You are right, my typo, I'm selling puts and I'm expecting a bull market. Thanks for catching that! I'll edit the post.

Curious, because I see absolutely nothing to justify a bull market right now. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but technical analysis based on resistance levels and all that seems a tenuous argument for it right now given the rising inflation, tightening from the FED, global supply-chain issues, energy shortages, Putin's war, inverting yield-curves, etc.

I do believe the outlook for Tesla is very rosy indeed, but the macro-economic outlook looks pretty dire to me

Anyway, I try to position myself to cover all scenarios now, up, down and sideways...

 

[jeewee3000]

I've now played both sides and while a little hairy at times, I'm starting to understand the ebbs and flows. Appreciate all this forum has had to offer!

Great. Another joins the dark side. Welcome!

 

[jaspa]

Curious, because I see absolutely nothing to justify a bull market right now. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but technical analysis based on resistance levels and all that seems a tenuous argument for it right now given the rising inflation, tightening from the FED, global supply-chain issues, energy shortages, Putin's war, inverting yield-curves, etc.

I do believe the outlook for Tesla is very rosy indeed, but the macro-economic outlook looks pretty dire to me

Anyway, I try to position myself to cover all scenarios now, up, down and sideways...

There could also be short term weakness in Tesla due to the ongoing shutdown in Shanghai. Haven't come across any indication that they're reopening just yet.

 

[AquaY]

There could also be short term weakness in Tesla due to the ongoing shutdown in Shanghai. Haven't come across any indication that they're reopening just yet.

Others have brought that up the other day.
I didn't think it would have an effect yet but maybe they are right

 

[jaspa]

Curious, because I see absolutely nothing to justify a bull market right now. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but technical analysis based on resistance levels and all that seems a tenuous argument for it right now given the rising inflation, tightening from the FED, global supply-chain issues, energy shortages, Putin's war, inverting yield-curves, etc.

I do believe the outlook for Tesla is very rosy indeed, but the macro-economic outlook looks pretty dire to me

Anyway, I try to position myself to cover all scenarios now, up, down and sideways...

For what it’s worth, in the short term, spotgamma views SPX < 4500 as having negative gamma (higher volatility). He views it as slightly favorable that it’s bounced off 4450 in the last two days.

 

[Max Plaid]

For what it’s worth, in the short term, spotgamma views SPX < 4500 as having negative gamma (higher volatility). He views it as slightly favorable that it’s bounced off 4450 in the last two days.

Yeah, I also watched The Stock Channel TA and he's pretty sure the SPY is going on a bull run, QQQ is looking a bit weak, and $TSLA is in a very bullish trend... I don't necessarily believe in all this, but no harm in getting other opinions

Make of it what you will... First two chapters are SPY & QQQ, TSLA at 9:27

 

[WattsHappening]

Yeah, I also watched The Stock Channel TA and he's pretty sure the SPY is going on a bull run, QQQ is looking a bit weak, and $TSLA is in a very bullish trend... I don't necessarily believe in all this, but no harm in getting other opinions

Make of it what you will... First two chapters are SPY & QQQ, TSLA at 9:27

I watched that also. And I am in the same boat as you. I don't necessarily believe it, but I like watching just to gather more data points.

I am very interested to see how this plays out. Usually, he is pretty wishy-washy with his predictions (a lot of 'the trend is your friend', and 'if it breaches support, it will go lower, and if it breaches resistance, it will go higher' TA). This is the first time in a while where I recall him taking a stance beforehand and really suggesting a specific SP movement.

Next couple of weeks will be interesting.

 

[dc_h]

There could also be short term weakness in Tesla due to the ongoing shutdown in Shanghai. Haven't come across any indication that they're reopening just yet.

I've been waiting for someone to discuss this issue. I'm adding a tweet thread below for context. It could be a few weeks before they reopen, which could be half of Shanghai production, or more this quarter. Berlin also gets batteries from China. I think this could lead to some short term issues, before moving back to highs as China reopens and Austin & Berlin start cranking up production. Fremont is also working to add capacity, so theoretical capacity could be increasing faster than expected by the market. I sold fairly aggressive CC's this week at 1100 and 1200. I may regret it, but feel it helps reduce risk from my LEAPS.
Interesting thread from Shanghai:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1512734595485106179