Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Drezil]

Excluding this week, below are the top 50 TSLA weekly drops. Covid is the first (-25.60%)

72% of the time, the stock price is 4 weeks later.
66% of the time, the stock price is ️ 8 weeks later.

View attachment 798179

What is the median, lower and upper quartile move after 4 and 8 weeks?

I would prefer a presentation in histogram-form for that.. because it is a difference if the distibution is gaussian with i.e. +5% mean ("go up" is high probable) or if we have a bimodal thing with peaks at -10% and +15% (basically making this ~ a coinflip)

And then apply the results to the implications on e.g. a calender-call for 4/8-weeks out

Edit: Would also be interesting to make a histogram with exponential decay (=> not +1 at the %-point in the histogram, but +e^(-x/52) wit x= x weeks ago. This makes events further in the past not dominate. 52 is just a guess. Maybe 4 or 8 makes more sense..)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This dynamic of setting a limit and missing out on a position I want has led me to move most of my opening and closing short term transactions to market orders. The opens are frequently .20 wide b/a spreads, so with patience I can get half of that. Getting .10 on a position that I've seen lose 1.00 while I'm waiting has led me to take the open when I want it and not muck about.

Similarly on the close, except b/a spread is usually .05 or so. With patience I might get .02 of that. I'll care a lot more after a split and we're handling a significantly larger number of contracts with much smaller credits, but the b/a will also shrink a lot.


Definitely NOT-ADVICE - I've just found that the combination of avoiding those occasional missing out situations, plus immediate resolution, is worth more than close watching a position awaiting a fill.

The other approach, that I think you're using, is more of a "this is the price I'm ready to open for" idea, and then we either reach it or we don't. Clearly this is a job for limit orders

This is where I want to get, I'm just not there yet. When trading intentionally, with a proper plan, and being ready when the window opens.....yes, that's precisely my plan. Market orders are the way to go.

This morning I hadn't even planned to sell BPS, then I looked around at the premiums and thought they looked good for next week way OTM. I need to stop making directional decisions intraday.

 

[intelligator]

Wednesday Put interest thinned out at 800, increased at 850 and 900 and some in between.

Call interest spiked at 900, 950, 1000 and a bell cluster formed between 875 and 950 ; 935 interest remains unchanged from Tuesday.

Gamma exposure went from -0.03 to -0.24 to -0.22 , slowly working towards neutral. Most all movement towards zero resulted in price improvement or sideway trading. My WAG for Thursday is that it may be an up day. I'll aim to close out 4/29 BPS if we get a nice morning spike.

 

[Discoducky]

These put premiums look really good for next week.

 

[JustMe]

These put premiums look really good for next week.

View attachment 798308

Not surprisingly, IV jacked way up yesterday. That post-earnings IV crush was short lived

 

[juanmedina]

These put premiums look really good for next week.

View attachment 798308

Those premiums got juicy for a reason . I closed all my long term covered calls that were underwater for a small profit and now all my shares are free. The only screw up so far was selling a $930 put for next week earlier in the week. I got another Jun 24 $700 call. I would love the IV to drop to trade some shares for options.

 

[Chenkers]

Not surprisingly, IV jacked way up yesterday. That post-earnings IV crush was short lived

IV jumped up even more overnight. It's pushed my account to the limit so unfortunately I have to start liquidating some positions before IB does.

Edit: My main issue has been the jump in the JAN'23 expiry. I've pushed a lot of dead wood out to 1100/1200 BPS and the maintenance margin on these has gone up 50% in the last 1-2 days.

 

[FS_FRA]

Rolled my Apr -850/+650 to Jun -810/+610 for free. Will keep rolling this down and out I think to something well into the 700s.

Not touching my May -800/+600, yet. Will see how things develop and then roll down and out to the 700s too.

UPDATE: on the further dump today, rolled my 05/20 -800/+600 BPS to 06/17 -760/+560 for $3.

 

[EVCollies]

Oh what to do with my 4/29 BPS -900/+700? When opened late last week I was so sure it would close at 80% profit quite easily but with the Twitter dump, that is not gonna happen. I was hoping for a slight increase in SP this morning but we are now at $820!

I could roll it a week forward and strike up 10 for $7 but will SP improve in a week, I think not.
I could roll it a month forward and strike down 10 for $10 which I'm favoring but will wait to see if the MMD is causing some of this drop.

 

[vikings123]

Oh what to do with my 4/29 BPS -900/+700? When opened late last week I was so sure it would close at 80% profit quite easily but with the Twitter dump, that is not gonna happen. I was hoping for a slight increase in SP this morning but we are now at $820!

I could roll it a week forward and strike up 10 for $7 but will SP improve in a week, I think not.
I could roll it a month forward and strike down 10 for $10 which I'm favoring but will wait to see if the MMD is causing some of this drop.

IMO this is not MMD. It appears to be another big dump by a big fish, possibly Elon or maybe something to do with ARKK. In fact I think MMs are probably scampering to defend the puts they sold.

 

[dc_h]

FFS, I don't do BPS for I don't know how long. My apologies, I'm the jinx. I can only assume Elon is selling, or every TSLA investor in the MSNBC stack of humanity is selling their TSLA. Wish I hadn't wasted margin on BPS, I'd be buying leaps right now.

 

[Max Plaid]

This has to be an organised shorty-bear attack - what with the uptick rule no longer active. The fact that $TSLA was up 3% most of pre-market, then dumps against the indexes on no news, not natural at all

For my side I BTC 5x 5/6 -c950's I sold yesterday for 70% profits, plus STO 10x 5/6 -p700 close to the bottom - will roll these down and out if I have to, but I'm also not opposed to the idea of getting 1000 $TSLA shares @$700

I'm thinking if $AMZN and $AAPL come with good earnings then this could be very interesting tomorrow

 

[jeewee3000]

If Max Pain is worth anything these days, $800 floor should hold by tomorrow.

$800 put wall is the highest of all put walls this week and the volume of $800 puts traded is quite large. I'd be shocked if we end below $800 tomorrow night after two massive drops already.

But hey, maybe that's what they want me to think

 

[MP3Mike]

This has to be an organised shorty-bear attack - what with the uptick rule no longer active. The fact that $TSLA was up 3% most of pre-market, then dumps against the indexes on no news, not natural at all

Or it is actually Elon selling. Wasn't his pattern before Tuesday/Thursday?

On other news I got early assignment on some puts overnight, 1085s and 1095s, that I was planning on closing today. Of course then I thought I'd be smart and made a big mistake. (Selling some of the long side with plans to sell the shares when the price went up.)

I early executed all the rest of the long sides of the BPSs; so I'm sorry if you happened to end up being on the other side. (Seems unlikely.)

 

[dc_h]

I rolled my 860-800 to May 6th. If this is Elon selling, I probably should have rolled out further. This won't have any impact on the business long term, but it would have been shrewd to take money off the table or sell aggressive CC's once he started discussing buying twitter. I just missed selling 10 CCs at 1050 on Monday, tried to squeeze an extra dime on the sale

 

[evermore]

Or it is actually Elon selling. Wasn't his pattern before Tuesday/Thursday?

On other news I got early assignment on some puts overnight, 1085s and 1095s, that I was planning on closing today. Of course then I thought I'd be smart and made a big mistake. (Selling some of the long side with plans to sell the shares when the price went up.)

I early executed all the rest of the long sides of the BPSs; so I'm sorry if you happened to end up being on the other side. (Seems unlikely.)

Did you early exercise while the market was closed, or during market hours? If the latter, does that mean you gave up some time value?

 

[MP3Mike]

Did you early exercise while the market was closed, or during market hours? If the latter, does that mean you gave up some time value?

During market hours. Time value was listed as negative. (They won't let you early exercise yourself if there is time value left.)

But maybe the correct way to handle this would be to sell both the stock and long put at the same time?

 

[Max Plaid]

Or it is actually Elon selling. Wasn't his pattern before Tuesday/Thursday?

On other news I got early assignment on some puts overnight, 1085s and 1095s, that I was planning on closing today. Of course then I thought I'd be smart and made a big mistake. (Selling some of the long side with plans to sell the shares when the price went up.)

I early executed all the rest of the long sides of the BPSs; so I'm sorry if you happened to end up being on the other side. (Seems unlikely.)

I know some other folks got puts assigned overnight too, someone took some fat profits...

As for Elon selling, I don't buy that idea, he would need to sell now and he wouldn't sell on open market either, plus no trace of it: Real Time Insider Data - DATAROMA - Investing

 

[Drezil]

I know some other folks got puts assigned overnight too, someone took some fat profits...

As for Elon selling, I don't buy that idea, he would need to sell now and he wouldn't sell on open market either, plus no trace of it: Real Time Insider Data - DATAROMA - Investing

The trace would be Form-4 Filings, that would only have to be submitted today (i think even after close is fine)... So it MAY appear later there if he sold parts.

 

[BornToFly]

On the other thread, they are saying that if Elon sold, we could find out after close today. If that is the case, we could see more of a drop tomorrow. I have -790/+650 BPS for tomorrow. Should be safe unless Elon sold. I had plenty of margin 3 days ago, but now I show a margin call because of those BPSs and massive SP drop. Nothing due today. I may close 1/3 of them at a loss before close today just as a cushion in case the bottom falls out tomorrow, although I don't believe a sub 790 close is in the cards.