Interesting! So if you do 11 trades of the same amount, and make 10% ten times and lose 100% once, you breakeven? Do you use a stop loss on each trade to prevent that?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
From what I've seen it'll be more like gains of 25-125% when I nail an MMD and losses of 30-100% when I'm wrong(or dead wrong). The two 10-15% returns on Wednesday were just me testing the principle for 20 minutes, and there wasn't even much 9f an MMD that day.
I'm gonna keep it tiny for a few weeks and will report back specific results.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I often create a gtc order as soon as I open my position to close it at an 80% gain. Then if it executes early I get notified and crushed my goal for the week. (Then can open a new position with the freed capital)
I used to let these ride until Friday and adjust to close for .05. Then it’s fee free and I can reestablish a new position with the capital for the following week.
I now adjust thursdays and if I want to keep it open, I cancel the orders because I have been assigned on Thursday nights for puts ITM. My theory is that if you have open sell positions you get picked to be exercised against. Other than these two thurs night assignments I have never been assigned puts with hundreds of short put trades.
I wanted to report on my trades for the upcoming week. Too busy to do this on Friday.
STO an IC at 700p/680p/800c/820c for $4.34. This is my "safe" play.
STO BPS at 720p/625p for $14.25. This was close to the money when I sold it.
STO BPS at 710p/610p for $11.02. This is my slightly safer play.
STO BPS at at 715p/620p for 13.87. This was a limit order that I put on ATM on the suspicion that the MMs would try to drive the SP below 715 during the final Friday pushdown, which they did. As an aside, that meant that the 715c I sold Friday morning were profitable. Those trades have been 50/50 for me.
I expect 715 to be support next week. I'm hoping that AI day sends us decisively over 730 or so, and that point, I'll start selling calls around 750 to 770, depending on how large of a pop we see (if any).
IV seems like it's not pricing in AI day at all, so I'm wondering if we'll see a post AI day run up, similar to the most recent earnings, where there's not much of a drop in the SP, but a few days later a bunch more buyers stepping in as they digest the information. I think that the current SP is explained just by analyst upgrades and the strong Q2 earnings, not so much AI day speculation. From the technicals, TSLA looks like it wants to run higher to me, and AI day seems like a good catalyst, but I don't think it's priced in as of Friday's close. I'm not sure if we'll see that taking effect prior to AI day or after though. Thoughts?
STO an IC at 700p/680p/800c/820c for $4.34. This is my "safe" play.
STO BPS at 720p/625p for $14.25. This was close to the money when I sold it.
STO BPS at 710p/610p for $11.02. This is my slightly safer play.
STO BPS at at 715p/620p for 13.87. This was a limit order that I put on ATM on the suspicion that the MMs would try to drive the SP below 715 during the final Friday pushdown, which they did. As an aside, that meant that the 715c I sold Friday morning were profitable. Those trades have been 50/50 for me.
I expect 715 to be support next week. I'm hoping that AI day sends us decisively over 730 or so, and that point, I'll start selling calls around 750 to 770, depending on how large of a pop we see (if any).
IV seems like it's not pricing in AI day at all, so I'm wondering if we'll see a post AI day run up, similar to the most recent earnings, where there's not much of a drop in the SP, but a few days later a bunch more buyers stepping in as they digest the information. I think that the current SP is explained just by analyst upgrades and the strong Q2 earnings, not so much AI day speculation. From the technicals, TSLA looks like it wants to run higher to me, and AI day seems like a good catalyst, but I don't think it's priced in as of Friday's close. I'm not sure if we'll see that taking effect prior to AI day or after though. Thoughts?
welp.. i chickened out of my -722.5c for a loss ..
You live, you learn.
Could have gone the other way as well..
jeewee3000
Active Member
Totally true. I'm not gloating. I was ready to roll the entire afternoon but lady luck smiled upon me. (More like a half smirk, but good enough)
Mulligan Jake
Member
My story is similar to yours, a little different strategy but similar results. I bought shares in 2014-2015. Then started selling monthly calls to generate monthly income to supplement retirement. Next I was selling monthly strangles before I knew it had a name ( at first I thought it might be illegal). My core shares I never touch and I have 300 shortterm shares or cash equivalent for weekly -c, -p or strangles. I normally sell on Thursday or Friday morning for the following Friday. Like you, my option income far exceeds my income before retirement. Friends and family have noticed a change in our spending habits (the Model X was a big clue) and I’ve tried to explain the selling options strategy to a few people and they just don’t get it so I don’t even try anymore.
Thanks to everyone for their input on this forum and wishing everyone continued success.
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. opened a formal investigation into Tesla Inc.’s Autopilot system after almost a dozen collisions at crash scenes involving first-responder vehicles, stepping up its scrutiny of a system the carmaker has charged thousands of dollars for over the last half decade.
The probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration covers an estimated 765,000 Tesla Model Y, X, S and 3 vehicles from the 2014-2021 model years. The regulator -- which has the power to deem cars defective and order recalls -- said it launched the investigation after 11 crashes that resulted in 17 injuries and one fatality.
“Most incidents took place after dark and the crash scenes encountered included scene-control measures such as first-responder vehicle lights, flares, an illuminated arrow board and road cones,” the agency said in the document. “The involved subject vehicles were all confirmed to have been engaged in either Autopilot or Traffic Aware Cruise Control during the approach to the crashes.”
Tesla shares fell as much as 3.6% to $691.20 shortly after the start of regular trading. Representatives for the electric-car maker didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Autopilot is Tesla’s driver-assistance system that maintains vehicles’ speed and keeps them centered in lanes when engaged, though the driver is supposed to supervise at all times. The company has been criticized for years for naming the system in a potentially misleading way. Since late 2016, it has marketed higher-level functionality called Full Self-Driving Capability. It now sells that package of features -- often referred to as FSD -- for $10,000 or a $199 a month.
“We are glad to see NHTSA finally acknowledge our long standing call to investigate Tesla for putting technology on the road that will be foreseeably misused in a way that is leading to crashes, injuries and deaths,” said Jason Levine, the executive director of the Center for Auto Safety. “This probe needs to go far beyond crashes involving first responder vehicles because the danger is to all drivers, passengers, and pedestrians when Autopilot is engaged.”
NHTSA investigated Tesla’s Autopilot in the wake of a 2016 fatal crash and cleared the system early the following year. The regulator has opened at least 30 special crash investigations involving Tesla cars that it suspected were linked to Autopilot, with the pace of probes picking up under the Biden administration.
The first of the 11 crashes that prompted the latest probe occurred in January 2018 in Culver City, California, according to NHTSA. The most recent incident occurred July 10 in San Diego. Others occurred in Florida, Michigan, Texas, Arizona, Massachusetts, Indiana and Connecticut.
NHTSA announced in June that it would order car manufacturers to report crashes involving automated driving technologies within one day of learning of such incidents. The agency had largely taken a hands-off approach to regulating driver-assistance systems up to that point so as not to stand in the way of their potential safety benefits…
The probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration covers an estimated 765,000 Tesla Model Y, X, S and 3 vehicles from the 2014-2021 model years. The regulator -- which has the power to deem cars defective and order recalls -- said it launched the investigation after 11 crashes that resulted in 17 injuries and one fatality.
“Most incidents took place after dark and the crash scenes encountered included scene-control measures such as first-responder vehicle lights, flares, an illuminated arrow board and road cones,” the agency said in the document. “The involved subject vehicles were all confirmed to have been engaged in either Autopilot or Traffic Aware Cruise Control during the approach to the crashes.”
Tesla shares fell as much as 3.6% to $691.20 shortly after the start of regular trading. Representatives for the electric-car maker didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Autopilot is Tesla’s driver-assistance system that maintains vehicles’ speed and keeps them centered in lanes when engaged, though the driver is supposed to supervise at all times. The company has been criticized for years for naming the system in a potentially misleading way. Since late 2016, it has marketed higher-level functionality called Full Self-Driving Capability. It now sells that package of features -- often referred to as FSD -- for $10,000 or a $199 a month.
“We are glad to see NHTSA finally acknowledge our long standing call to investigate Tesla for putting technology on the road that will be foreseeably misused in a way that is leading to crashes, injuries and deaths,” said Jason Levine, the executive director of the Center for Auto Safety. “This probe needs to go far beyond crashes involving first responder vehicles because the danger is to all drivers, passengers, and pedestrians when Autopilot is engaged.”
NHTSA investigated Tesla’s Autopilot in the wake of a 2016 fatal crash and cleared the system early the following year. The regulator has opened at least 30 special crash investigations involving Tesla cars that it suspected were linked to Autopilot, with the pace of probes picking up under the Biden administration.
The first of the 11 crashes that prompted the latest probe occurred in January 2018 in Culver City, California, according to NHTSA. The most recent incident occurred July 10 in San Diego. Others occurred in Florida, Michigan, Texas, Arizona, Massachusetts, Indiana and Connecticut.
NHTSA announced in June that it would order car manufacturers to report crashes involving automated driving technologies within one day of learning of such incidents. The agency had largely taken a hands-off approach to regulating driver-assistance systems up to that point so as not to stand in the way of their potential safety benefits…
All other EV companies are down even more than Tesla. I closed all my calls that I bought last week and made the mistake of selling $690 puts way to early this morning. I was so wrong about feeling of Tesla not going under $700 for a while lol.
Sold 8/20 -650p/+595p put credit spreads at the dip for $5.27 each. These are already at around $4, so very nice 
dc_h
Active Member
This is the quietest this thread has been in some time. I sold puts this morning into early weakness, too soon at 700 and was relieved about my 730cc's that were rolled when we moved jumped up to 700 a couple weeks ago. I have 690-680 bps, 685-675bps and 670-660bps. Closing my 750cc's sold last week and may btc my 730cc's and see if we get a bounce and sell CC again.
Macro issues: Afghanistan and taper tantrums.
Tesla issues: NHTSA investigation and AI day. AI day could be massively bullish, but the market usually takes time to digest these events and there is usually not an immediate or precisely scheduled deliverable.
Macro issues: Afghanistan and taper tantrums.
Tesla issues: NHTSA investigation and AI day. AI day could be massively bullish, but the market usually takes time to digest these events and there is usually not an immediate or precisely scheduled deliverable.
I couldn't agree more! I was already hip deep in 575/675 and 590/690s expiring this Friday. I already knew that I wanted to get out to 8/27 or 9/3 on these as I want to push out my expirations by a week compared to what I've been doing. We'll see whether the extra week actually reduces daily mental energy or increases it
With shares down around 683, I started rolling these out to a variety of new positions as I've been looking for an opportunity to do a bunch of spread rolls and now I have my opportunity! I'm going with the principle that the time to sell puts (or put spreads) is when the shares are down, just as the time to sell calls (or call spreads) is when the shares are up. And a ~$35 down day (at this moment) is about as good of a put sale time as it can be.
As I'm rolling out of existing positions I'll be realizing some losses while establishing new positions at a larger credit (thus a net credit). These new positions are far more aggressive than I would normally be selling because of the net credit restriction.
New positions:
- 590/690 this week to 590/690 8/27 for a 4.30 net credit. I wanted to get this position out to 8/27 anyway and the $4.30 net credit meets my weekly income target for each position. This is a smallish test position where the purpose is to see how rolls on deeper ITM positions roll. At $10 ITM this works out quite well.
- 575/675 this week to 570/670 8/27 for a 2.80 net credit. This is one of my significant positions. The theme here was the best strike improvement for a net credit and a 1 week extension. I'll be rolling this position aggressively to keep OTM. I could probably have gotten to 565/665 if there had been a 565 strike in the option chain. In retrospect I might have gotten a net credit for a 570/665 ($95 spread instead of $100) and I would prefer to be in this latter position as I'm looking for the lower strike in this position.
The net credit is still a solid weekly result (somewhere around $2 / week is what I'd like to see).
- 595/675 this week to 595/675 for next week for a 3.90 net credit. A bit more aggressive in this account where I am also trying out a $80 spread. A better than solid result.
- 575/675 this week to 590/690 on 9/3 (2 weeks) for a 14.20 net credit, or $7.10 per week added. Adding 2 weeks and going up gets me a really large (for me) net credit. This is a small test position where I want to see how a little bit longer dated position evolves.
- 575/675 this week to 560/660 on 9/3 (2 weeks) for a 3.10 credit, or 1.55 per week added. The theme here is improving the strike as far as possible for a net credit.
- 575/675 this week to 575/675 next week for a 4.60 net credit. Another more aggressive position - a second instance of going straight out for a net credit but using a $100 spread size instead of $80.
And if it's a good day to sell BPS, then it might also be a good day to buy LEAPs!
With the big move down today I think so and I'm in for:
- June '22 500 strike calls @ 233.60. As will all my long dated calls, these are to sell cc against. I'm using ~12 month calls as mental encouragement to keep the call sales aggressive. At this strike I'm paying roughly $54 in time value up front and now have 8-9 months of call sales.
- June '23 400 strike calls @ $347. Also for cc, this account was light on the 2 year options and I want these even more like share replacements than the shorter dated calls. Here I'm paying $67 for 2 years worth of time value (vs $54 in time value for 1 year), but I also lose some of the leverage and get about 1/2 as many.
My BPS experiment is off to an exciting start. In the spirit of experimentation, when the stock price approached the short leg of the spread today I rolled it forward a week for credit. Normally I would wait until Thursday or so, but I'm trying new things. So the originals were 620/-685 @ $4.00 for this Friday, and the new ones are @ $3.50 (net credit) for next week. It will be interesting to see what the stock price does from here given global political, domestic economic, and Tesla FUD issues. I also took some of the credit and bought shares.
Same here I got an average of $10.74.
With $4.4k from calls from last week and a long dated put that I closed today, all my options selling premium has surpassed my highest yearly salary which is my current salary and that includes a $51k lost early in the year. I am impressed and I hope that it keeps getting better as we all learn more. Thanks @adiggs for creating this thread and everyone else that contributes to it.
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