dc_h
Active Member
I closed CC's at 850 & 800, but not the 775. Got a little busy at the close. Wish I saw your note on closing BPS. Have 650-600 and would have been nice to close at the open.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I always look for max strike improvements and nearly zero credit. I rather have the open options close out and reset for the following week. Hopefully these expires worthless in September.
So we lost support at 700, closed lower.
All the TA info about a close in the 900 was scaring me from selling CCs in the 800 for Friday but now the market has proved it is impossible to predict in the short term for anyone.
Hesitating to sit out and wait for the P&D this Saturday before selling new CCs.
All the TA info about a close in the 900 was scaring me from selling CCs in the 800 for Friday but now the market has proved it is impossible to predict in the short term for anyone.
Hesitating to sit out and wait for the P&D this Saturday before selling new CCs.
Tesla Stock Forecast: down to 134.211 USD? - TSLA Stock Price Prediction, Long-Term & Short-Term Share Revenue Prognosis with Smart Technical Analysis
Tesla Stock Forecast, TSLA stock price prediction. Price target in 14 days: 189.771 USD. The best long-term & short-term Tesla share price prognosis for 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028 with daily TSLA exchange price projections: monthly and daily opening, closing, maximum and minimum stock...
walletinvestor.com
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2024
TSLA's current price target is $201.63. Learn why top analysts are making this stock forecast for Tesla at MarketBeat.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
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View attachment 822412
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2024
TSLA's current price target is $201.63. Learn why top analysts are making this stock forecast for Tesla at MarketBeat.www.marketbeat.com
View attachment 822417
jeewee3000
Active Member
The greatest difference is the risk profile.
With an iron condor you could:
- end up between short strikes, netting you the full premium;
- end up within the put leg strikes or call leg strikes, in which case you could either buy back or manage the position;
- end up at max loss for the put leg (bps) or call leg (bcs), which would turn the trade into a disaster. = i.e. a pure loss, not to be won back unless you manage the position by throwing good money after bad money (widening and rolling out, basically).
With a straddle/strangle (similar concepts, as they both rely on pure cc / csp) the risk is of an entirely different nature since the losing side of the trade won't kill your portfolio. Worst case you let that leg exercise/get assigned, netting you some shares or selling you some shares.
When theorycrafting this can result in a "loss" since the losing leg can end up DITM making the shares you were assigned less valuable or making you miss out on profit if the SP goes way over the shares you sold (when cc is exercised), but this "loss" can sort out itself with patience.
Also, you are ready for a new trade on the same collateral. Let's say I sell a -750cc / -750p straddle for 7/22 @120 (i.e. 12k) and I have $75000 cash and 100 shares backing that trade, the results (if I hold to expiration) could be:
- SP ends up very close to $750 (let's say within $25), best course of action is probably to buy back the position for peanuts, netting you ~75% profit on the trade.
- SP ends up down heavily -> you receive 100 shares @630 cost basis. -> you can sell a $650 straddle next
- SP ends up up heavily -> you sell 100 shares @870 cost basis. -> you can sell a straddle in that vicinity if you like.
Only if the SP goes below 630 or above 870 you have a theoretic loss:
- In the case of the put exercising and SP being below $630 you have an unrealized loss on the shares. Fixable with time (and you can sell cc's against this position)
- In the case of the call exercising and SP being above $870 you have missed out on gains on the sold shares, but overall your portfolio grew and you're ready to fight/trade another day.
So the greatest "risk" with a straddle lies IMO in the SP of the underlying crashing and never going back up, leaving you with worthless shares.
In the case of TSLA, I can assume we agree this is unlikely.
All the other outcomes are OK. Maybe not optimal, but certainly fine from a money-making standpoint.
So the difference between straddles/strangles on the one hand and IC's on the other hand is quite easy to grasp in my mind.
What I still need to research some more is when a straddle is more optimal and when a strangle is more optimal. With straddles you of course prefer a very stable SP as opposed to a strangle, but a straddle nets you way more premium at the start and since the options are ATM (that's the usual technique) the theta decay is faster than with strangles.
With strangles on the other hand you get more "value" out of assignment on one leg, should this occur. (cheaper shares acquired, or sold at greater profit) But if SP ends within the strangle legs, you get way less premium than the straddle would have gotten you.
So I guess straddles are optimal for when you expect SP to remain close to current SP. And strangles for when you kind of expect larger volatility.
(And I guess with strangles it's more common to leg into the trade as opposed to straddles. In the latter case you would have to sell ITM options twice).
I'll end my ramblings here and get some work done. GLTA
bballshinobi
Member
NOT advice - do NOT do what I do.
I personally find it a lot more rewarding to just short the stock via CC. The market is in a down turn, we are heading into a recession, the Fed is conducting QT, JPow will speak publicly on a random weekday, some random central bank will probably collapse, Putin can’t pay people - basically every time the market goes up there will be something to knock it back Down. Am I scared about the CC being blown up? Sure, but it will be back down in a month anyways.
My strategy at the moment:
1. Watch the TD sequential setup+countdown and the Bollinger Band on 15 min and 1-hour time frame, and/or
2. STO below the current price strike CC when the stock crosses a major round number
For example, if it goes to $730, STO $700 CC. If it crosses $800, I am waiting for $815-820 to sell $800CC. My trades typically only last 1-3 days as I just wait for that negative 3-5% after each upward movement.
Price dropping before the weekend- so might as well skip selling of CCs - and avoid being caught in any whiplash and sudden increase in price
Next week new baseline and decide accordingly
Agree. New baseline on Monday after P&D, and then it could be time for 3-4 weeks of aggressive strike CC sales — unless the P&D is a significant beat that suggests volume will cover the extra 2Q charges.
Extra charges ? What are those beyond a month or so of potential severance?
Bitcoin impairment, and others listed by G. Black et al. and others above.
jeewee3000
Active Member
I'd think we rise above 700 by Friday given the P&D anticipation.
I've put my money where my mouth is: my 7/22 trade (see yesterday: 3x-750cc to 1x -750p/+600p bps) has been changed in a bullish sense:
BTC the 750 cc's (they were $20 as opposed to $50 when opening the trade)
STO -750p/+500p (bps) @$89
Net credit $29 AND I'm ready for the P&D runup. I'm just holding two 7/22 bpses and no cc's anymore for that expiration.
When we get another spike/rally I'll convert the bps'es into cc's I think.
Personally, I think there will be a little FOMO hedging/buy the rumor, just in case P&D surprises to the upside. I just don't know if it takes us over 700 if we drop too much more today.
simple thought.
Imagine you are a market maker. You have sold calls at 750, puts at 700 (major "walls"). You know friday SOME P&D will likely seep through (as some institutions publish monthly register numbers). You expect uptrend. On Monday we already threaten and early tuesday breach 750 up to 755. You sell more calls.
Then you get some "consumer questions say the might buy less in the forseeing future". Markets go down 3%. You embrace it. Push it down, making bang on the sold calls. On the way down you sell puts like mad.
Now it is wednesday. Price is at 680. It is EXACTLY where you wish it to be when you are positioned 700/750 with the expectation of FOMO at friday.
If MM COULD manipulate as their hearts desire & would be able to ... then this looks like a perfectly played week.
I doubt they can... but it is too nice of a conspiracy-theory not to share with you
Imagine you are a market maker. You have sold calls at 750, puts at 700 (major "walls"). You know friday SOME P&D will likely seep through (as some institutions publish monthly register numbers). You expect uptrend. On Monday we already threaten and early tuesday breach 750 up to 755. You sell more calls.
Then you get some "consumer questions say the might buy less in the forseeing future". Markets go down 3%. You embrace it. Push it down, making bang on the sold calls. On the way down you sell puts like mad.
Now it is wednesday. Price is at 680. It is EXACTLY where you wish it to be when you are positioned 700/750 with the expectation of FOMO at friday.
If MM COULD manipulate as their hearts desire & would be able to ... then this looks like a perfectly played week.
I doubt they can... but it is too nice of a conspiracy-theory not to share with you
dc_h
Active Member
Sold 590-540 BPS this morning and rolled 775 to 725 CC's. Seems like we are in a channel. Hope 675 holds support for the week. Will be interesting if the weak delivery numbers will be a sell the news and buy the story? If not, do people expect us to test 600 again next week?
I just rolled it up to a 720 and kept this Friday. I locked in most of the profit and gave myself more headroom. And if we go over 720 and I lose the shares, I make another $20k. I now have a 40 wide straddle between those CC and 680 Puts.
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