Comments on my decision making approach / strategy.
I make heavy use of a decision making strategy called
satisficing. I was so happy when I discovered that it had a name
The idea with satisficing is to proceed with a decision when some acceptability threshold is met. For the option sales, I worry more about whether a position is good / adequate, than whether it is optimal. Most of the time optimal is mostly focused on peaks and valleys in the share price, and optimizing for financial results.
The trading rules I've built up around this idea do a good job of keeping me on the better side of the ups and downs and from my personal experience, are adequate for my needs.
The way I think of satisficing is its a decision making strategy that incorporates all the other stuff that is part of a decision, but doesn't necessarily get considered. In the context of my option sales strategy this includes:
- stomach acid / can I sleep at night
- can I check in on the share price a few times a day, or do I need to be watching it more closely than that.
- are positions, at least to some degree, fire and forget?
- time invested in the overall process each week (this is a gotcha for me and doing my own technical analysis)
The big one is whether I'm reaching my income target. Generally speaking I am measuring progress on a weekly basis, but due to week to week variation and even month to month variation, I measure success at the quarterly level. Q2 found me right in the middle of my income target for the quarter, with 2 months going above and 1 month going noticeably below. There will still be quarterly variation - it'll just be much smaller.
As long as I'm consistently hitting the income target then further optimization for financial outcome has a reasonably strong likelihood of exposing me to more risk than I want to take on.
This is an important reason, for me, to have an income target and to use it appropriately. For me that means that I don't want to be stretching to get to it - doing so is an indicator that I am taking on too much risk and/or don't have adequate capital available to reach the income.
It also means that if I'm going over the top of the income target (range) that I might be taking on more risk than I really want to be taking on. That's a trigger to evaluate my week to week choices / trades / strategy, as well as leverage, to see if I'm getting greedy. It is entirely possible that I'm ok on risk and leverage and just doing particularly well