Plan? What's a plan?!?!
It's a single BPS gamble. As you've noted, the only viable rolls are to go out further in time and widen the spread.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Plan? What's a plan?!?!
It's a single BPS gamble. As you've noted, the only viable rolls are to go out further in time and widen the spread.
First time I've tried to map out wave 1 using fib channel like this. Let's see how it pans out. 220 by Friday and then large pullback to at least 198.5 before taking off again. This all hinges on Elon announcing he's done tonight. However, I really like the way it chops.
That is a beautiful looking chart. Thank you for posting it here.
I think the rest of the week is very dependent on Elon providing any clarification. Where it gets interesting for me is if there are form 4s logged today AND we continue to get radio silence from Elon. We had a morning dip on Friday and today so my assumption is he was selling today too. Elon is probably getting pissed off with all the "hate" from shareholders about his sales so wouldn't shock me if he maintains radio silence.
Just look at the run NFLX had in the past few days. I'm hoping TSLA is next. The range is getting tighter and tighter so hoping the break is to the upside.
No major trades for me today, just some minor scalps from selling and closing calls.
Another thing to consider for tomorrow is the weekly insurance data for Tesla China which usually tends to correlate well to the actual sales for that week. It would help if that number is good.
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I don't know if Elon is planning to tweet anything about sales anymore.
What would it get him? No one would believe him. And he would get abused in addition.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I don't see what's the problem in MM selling you and delivering stock at $350 strike price, and turning around and buying stock in the open market at $190.
In the process they close long put position, and get their money back.
I don't see why would they finance anyone for free, when there is liquidity crunch.
TBH, I don't care to continue this discussion, anyone can choose the hypothesis they want to believe in...
I think the same. Also, If we have form 4 tonight, do we expect to see him selling every single day with decreasing volume last week? Or just Wednesday, and nothing else. I guess I just dont know what is the good sign for the stock price if he keeps silent about selling TSLA.
I have a bunch of CC in the next few weeks, so a flat SP is good for now. I don't know what happened to the market during the last hour. Are people expecting PPI to be bad tomorrow morning and a gap down? I guess we'll know soon enough....
At this point it feels like 170s is more likely than 200s....
At this point it feels like 170s is more likely than 200s....
scubastevo80
Member
I'm expecting sideways trading and volatility until we have a clear path to moderate inflation and a top for interest rates. Until we see sustained improvement on that and China, I think we don't start heading higher. For the next 6 months, I may be a Tesla trader - selling on strength (which we've yet to see) and buying on new 52 week lows. I have a 170/150 BPS expiring this week and I'm not putting on CC's until we get some form of proper run higher (e.g. quick march to $210-220).
Rule #42 of Trading: Anything you call a gamble is automatically a rationale bet. Can't anyone say anything to any effect against it.
What's a rationale bet? Seriously. Is it a bet with a justification? If so, what does the rule mean? Or did something just go "whoosh" a moment ago?
It's just a joke. It's not that funny apparently. It just means you don't need to justify a bet as long as you call it a gamble.
That looks like a rising wedge to me, which is a bearish technical pattern. The expectation would be a quick drop from $196 to $188 near the apex of the wedge.
A 4% drop is like nbd for TSLA.. just something to look out for
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In that spirit, I have to admit that I bought two fists full of stupid YOLO calls: 11/18 +c230s.It's just a joke. It's not that funny apparently. It just means you don't need to justify a bet as long as you call it a gamble.
ALA @TheTalkingMule. Only paid $0.14, so easy pissing away money. Interestingly, the limit order, which hit near close, didn’t hit in the AM even at much lower SP (must have been a higher IV). Anyway, this is just a gamble, or maybe protection if there’s a relief rally post-Elon sales. In reality, it’s just more evidence for how messed up my trades are right now.Summary:
11/18: -p190/-p197.50 -c195/-c200 +c230
11/25: -p/-c192.50
12/09: -c185
-p/-c20012/16: -p/-c200, -p/-c210
Really hoping to clear up a few this week because things are getting too complicated to keep in my head. The only selling today was a single 11/18 -c195 at $5.00, which is just a manifestation of last week’s +c190 that exercised. It’s been a great “B/W” (maybe Wheel) series so far. Got net $3 on initial put, net $3 on call, then raised strike $5 and got another $5 on the CC. If I “lose” the shares on Friday, I’m up $16 on B/W and then sell 11/25 -p195, otherwise I’ll roll to 11/25 -c200 for another $5.
Really really really must believe in the company and mission. It’s been a horrible two months, though easy selling CCs, rolling CSPs down each week, and buying more shares. I just hope that I don’t get steamrolled as the SP rockets back (which is looking more likely with the last three days of higher lows). Unfortunately, don’t have enough free cash in my accounts to roll the CSPs higher, so might fall off the wheel if the SP moves too fast ($20/wk). Definitely will lose that 12/09 -c185 (don’t remember where THAT stupid mistake came from
). Watch out and GLTA.Attachments
No form 4s so Elon was not selling on Wednesday when we dropped 7% on huge volume.
Makes me wonder if they had big plans to take TSLA lower and CPI put a dent in their plans. I have to imagine they are not going to give up and look for any weakness to pull the stock lower.
BTW I like Elon’s radio silence on this topic, I hope he keeps it that way.
Makes me wonder if they had big plans to take TSLA lower and CPI put a dent in their plans. I have to imagine they are not going to give up and look for any weakness to pull the stock lower.
BTW I like Elon’s radio silence on this topic, I hope he keeps it that way.
Added 175/155 BPS (and a smaller 180/160 position) for this Friday for around $1. Had a nearly 1.20 open available, held out for it, and ended up with the .96 actual. This is a big reason why, for me, I tend to take market orders on single legs, or about 25% of the bid/ask on spreads, so that a decision to enter a position actually yields a position. Rarely do I make the entry decision, look for a really desirable fill, and then improve the actual position I get by anything like how badly I worsen the positions at other times (such as today). Should have taken the 1.15 when I had it, and I knew it
Combined with the 200 cc's, I've got the current share price pretty evenly strangled.
Combined with the 200 cc's, I've got the current share price pretty evenly strangled.
SebastienBonny
Member
PPI was good...for the stock market...and hopefully will get Chair Powells attention.
I think we will be testing @dl003 wave 1 limit ($230 I believe) at some point in the near future.
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