Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

What you name is what brought SP down already. or does it need to do that every day from now on?

Not sure what you mean here-- if the idea is Q3 and the call tells us 2024 will kinda suck for earnings and sales growth, and in your mind the stock price today reflects that, then why do you think it'd rebound significantly DURING 2024 when the suck already priced in is playing out? Wouldn't we (again barring macro as I already said) need something counter-suck to drive a large rebound in the share price in the (relatively) short term?

 

[ninpb]

-215P is exciting. I could do without and let the -220Ps have the fun.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

When the big nothing-burger Hertz deal was announced in 2021 the PE was over 100 and the SP added $100 in short order. So, I don't know what you see in PE that's so important, but I don't bother with it in my swing and day trading, not even in my long term holdings. Tesla's PE was near 200 or something like that at the end of 2021. TSLA's PE can get way more insane.

PEs and quarterly earnings don't matter much in the messy chaotic world of real life trading and investing. And technicals didn't have anything to say when TSLA was in the low 100s earlier this year, nor when it was at $400. Footsteps of the past don't predict the future, whether it's huge TSLA SP moves or anything else. Expect to be surprised, especially with TSLA SP performance. A SP of $300+ is very possible over the next couple of months, not because of PE or earnings, but because of stupid things like a Hertz announcement or some other surprise. And more importantly, Tesla's financial health and global position is much better now than at their ATH at the end of 2021, while their "competition" (if they even have any) falters.

YoY earnings aren't everything. Musk Enterprises is slowly embedding itself into the very geopolitical-geocultural fabric of the world--not just energy and transportation, but space-military, NASA research, government satellite surveillance for the Department of Defense, global internet for underserved regions of the planet, global newscasting, etc. Tesla is helping to fund education here in the U.S. with specific engineering curricula to feed Tesla and SpaceX, and sponsors university engineering competitions and recruits students from major universities. Tesla will be a very prominent engineering and manufacturing firm for governments worldwide in the future. Take a step back and look at Tesla's earning over the past 5 years--it is not negative. Better yet, step outside, or open a web browser, and see how Tesla/X/SpaceX is changing the very landscape in which we all live.

You may be totally right that TSLA oscillates +/- $30 around $200 for the next 3 months. Or you might be totally wrong. We'll see. But I'm betting that TSLA SP is waaaay more complex than the simplistic PE ratios and earnings metrics you focus on.

TSLA had just transitioned from making $0 net EPS to positive, of course you are going to get wonky PE ratios at that time. More importantly, projections of EPS in 2022 were more important so the forward PE ratio was probably still under 100 even with massive earnings growth.

There are no massive estimates for 2024 earnings to rely on. No, we cannot have a massive forward PE ratio way above everything else in the market. 2024 EPS will get revised down under $4. Please tell me what other mature (making proft) stocks have forward PE ratios of 75?

 

[thenewguy1979]

I think we hit the low of 210 for the week. Still net positive. Going to hang on till Monday and see how we goes.

Sometimes SP defied logic. Basic on earning and 2024 forcast aint too hot. But SP may not always reflect that as investors may see differently. joh01652's feedbacks are shared by many who believed in the long term vision.

No one is wrong till we start loosing money

Good luck guys!

 

[BornToFly]

Maybe this will help....

https://x.com/TSLA_lover/status/1715416966054502666?s=20

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Not sure what you mean here-- if the idea is Q3 and the call tells us 2024 will kinda suck for earnings and sales growth, and in your mind the stock price today reflects that, then why do you think it'd rebound significantly DURING 2024 when the suck already priced in is playing out? Wouldn't we (again barring macro as I already said) need something counter-suck to drive a large rebound in the share price in the (relatively) short term?

Yeah we do and not named by Elon (because of obvious reasons) are any timelines in CT ramping, Project Highland, including a Plaid version, FSD licensing, Teslabot, FSD complete (yes I know how often this was postponed, but at least we now know the path is the right one (or it wel never happen in any car!!!!)) and thus robotaxi. If al s*** is already baked in, what can be the next? only good things, but we need an economic recovery, fast preferably!

 

[SpeedyEddy]

216 incoming

Maybe this will help....

https://x.com/TSLA_lover/status/1715416966054502666?s=20

sell them in Israel and Ukraine

 

[Nocturnal]

216 incoming

sell them in Israel and Ukraine

Or America.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Yep, would work wonders in Oakland, LA, and New Yorks.....

 

[juanmedina]

Yep, would work wonders in Oakland, LA, and New Yorks.....

The Cybertruck will keep us safe from TSLAQ

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah we do and not named by Elon (because of obvious reasons) are any timelines in CT ramping

Which we've been told will be a money-loser for all of 2024 at least.

, Project Highland, including a Plaid version

I expect this will help 3 sales, but not sure it'll help EPS all THAT much? pricing initially seems to be anywhere from a little cheaper to a little more expensive so far in the countries you can order one, and they refused to say when it was coming to the US at all (and if they need to take 3 production down in CA for a few weeks as they did in China that might be an issue for total deliveries)

, FSD licensing, Teslabot, FSD complete

None of which I've seen any serious evidence of being anything happening/earning revenue in 2024 though. EPS for 2024 keeps being revised DOWN and PE keeps going up for a company that just announced it was intentionally slowing growth for a while.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Which we've been told will be a money-loser for all of 2024 at least.




I expect this will help 3 sales, but not sure it'll help EPS all THAT much? pricing initially seems to be anywhere from a little cheaper to a little more expensive so far in the countries you can order one, and they refused to say when it was coming to the US at all (and if they need to take 3 production down in CA for a few weeks as they did in China that might be an issue for total deliveries)




None of which I've seen any serious evidence of being anything happening/earning revenue in 2024 though. EPS for 2024 keeps being revised DOWN and PE keeps going up for a company that just announced it was intentionally slowing growth for a while.

my glass is half full, yours half empty, I guess

 

[SpeedyEddy]

216 is some kind of resistance for the day as could be expected, so the bounce is not yet convincing, sorry... another low coming..
closing positions that were positive

 

[thenewguy1979]

Based on today SP movement, low 210 and stuck at 215, are we already hitting base and next week is our ride up??

Seeing resistant as SpeedyEddy pointed out. Personally don't think we hit the low low yet. Holding on to the Puts till the fat lady sing.

 

[Max Plaid]

I've become a lot more bearish since earnings. EPS for next year is probably around $3. Not long ago we were looking at $12.
I rolled -265P for end of November to -250P Jan 2025 because there was little extrinsic left. A little bummed because I only got about $10 (I was getting $5+ on months rolls when closer to the money). Need to keep watching Jan 2024 175/200 BPS. I want them to go away completely. Can roll them out a year for about a $3 credit right now, but I don't want the risk over my head. I was thinking SP 400-500 in Jan 2025. Now I don't know if we hit 300.

Agreed, it feel really really bearish now, even with CT, Highland and Q4 record deliveries coming

I couldn't decide whether to sell off all my +c200's or sell calls, so I went 50/50, closed half and sold 60x -c200's for next week to cover downside, having already sold 100x -p225, there's upside cover in case the SP takes off

Didn't get the price I wanted, especially with the fake recovery in the morning, but OK, substantially de-risked for the moment

And at least I have enough cash to cover early assignment of Jan 2024 should that occur

 

[thenewguy1979]

SP deflating again.... guess noone want to hold the bag over the weekend. Maybe that chicken guy predicting $79 is not that far off......mmmmm chicken.

If SPY broke 420 - it's a sign Tesla will go lower. If it rebound then Tesla may go back up alongside.

 

[tivoboy]

I’d be very cautious holding or adding here.. I’m still targeting 196/185 as my fuller entries (within 30 days most likely), and will use lower 200’s option put pricing to sell 185/195 Nov/Jan puts for lowering cost of entry.. but I’ll be adding to shares at those levels as well.

May sell Nov $225 -C, theres some nice money there.

 

[dl003]

We're not done yet.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Are we expecting a bounce to 225 before dropping furthur?

 

[joh01652]

TSLA had just transitioned from making $0 net EPS to positive, of course you are going to get wonky PE ratios at that time. More importantly, projections of EPS in 2022 were more important so the forward PE ratio was probably still under 100 even with massive earnings growth.

There are no massive estimates for 2024 earnings to rely on. No, we cannot have a massive forward PE ratio way above everything else in the market. 2024 EPS will get revised down under $4. Please tell me what other mature (making proft) stocks have forward PE ratios of 75?

I don't trade other stocks, only TSLA. What I'm trying to say is I've never personally found an edge trading/investing by fixating on PE and earnings like you seem to imply. Do you find this makes you money? If so, great, keep winning and making money. Personally I think TA is a more helpful guide to getting into and out of short-term SP movements than just PE and earnings (among a ton of other seemingly random, chaotic factors and variables, some related to Tesla, some not). My goal is to pick up pennies as safely as I can while Mr. Global crushes as many gamblers as possible.

If you've found a trading edge with PE and earning, kudos to you. Keep up the good work. I wish I could find the same edge. At the end of the day I just focus on winning bits of money here and there, not arguments. Good luck.