With today’s macro squeeze, sold the buy-writes:
- 21Jun$180 at $6.38 (basis $176)
- 21Jun$187.50 at $3.57 (basis $187)
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
While the AI machine is still hot, can it tell us the target for AAPL, NVDA, and SMCI
Thanks.
AI got FOMO... I think the 150's is more likely...
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Nooooo, used to have ~12000 TSLA, but sold them... these are calendar diagonal spreads...10,000 shares?
STO 100x -p170/-c182.50 for this week... risky, maybe, but P&D will kill any rally and I have so many +p150's I don't care too much
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AI projections all 30 dayWhile the AI machine is still hot, can it tell us the target for AAPL, NVDA, and SMCI
Thanks.
AAPL $233
SCMI. $755
NVDA $131
TSLA- according to @dl003 on Twitter :
"This chart looks like it will go 180 before pulling back all day tmr, then result comes out and BOOM."
@thenewguy1979 asks: "to Boom what direction? Up or down?"
Yes, of course.
"This chart looks like it will go 180 before pulling back all day tmr, then result comes out and BOOM."
@thenewguy1979 asks: "to Boom what direction? Up or down?"
Yes, of course.
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On the pop over 180 I sold 202.5CCs for Friday, and Jan 2025 260 strike that I plan to BTC for a profit on any dip later today or tomorrow.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Does it continue to Boom what direction? Up or down?
BTC the Jan 260CCs after a 0.55 profit.
Will sell them again tomorrow on any strong pop.
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What troubling me, is when I forecast "a, b, then c", then a and b happen, but people keep asking me if c will happen as well or whether I've changed my mind. I mean, I'd understand if people expected me to change my mind had I been wrong on a and b, but I wasn't.
Trader lingo: a pullback doesn't precede a BOOM down. A pullback leading to a BOOM down is simply a crash.
SpaceXaddict
Member
The most powerful cognitive bias is narrative bias. If someone tells you a story, you believe it, and then you view all future information on the basis of that narrative.
Even if the narrative is false. Even if the other information contradicts the narrative.
The current narrative is unrealistically simplistic. For these reasons:
1. There are multiple data center projects going on at Tesla and XAI simultaneously for the past several years, including DOJO and NVIDIA infrastructure in NY, California and Texas at various stages, plus a half dozen or a dozen third party data centers with rental agreements and buildouts at various stages of negotiation and completion.
2. There is significant lead time for all of these efforts of at least a year. Rental agreements can take a year, construction in a year is fast and then deploying 10,000 H100s or whatever also takes months if not a year from beginning to end.
3. Given multiple years of lead time for chips, hosting/power and other infrastructure projects, you have to predict 1, 3, 5 years in advance how much you will need of construction, location, power, capital equipment. So everything is an estimate based on estimates.
YOU DO NOT REALLY KNOW HOW MUCH YOU ACTUALLY NEED that far in advance.
4. There are multiple efforts that significantly affect the amount of compute needed at any given point in time. The cost of training is going down every year with improvements in software. The amount of training needed goes down every year or becomes more efficient with improvements in the software. The extent of retraining goes down. The future size of the model needed changes as all of the above becomes more efficient.
5. Dojo and the FSD software have had significant advancements.
In the normal course of business, any one of the items in any of the 5 previous points alone is sufficient to shift the needs by an amount of 12,000 H100s for 6 months.
If you think there's any evidence of deception here you are reading way too much into it, or you are locked not a narrative, or you just don't understand business and how it works when you are innovating.
Almost all Tesla analysis these days comes from a very simplistic viewpoint of people who have clearly never worked for an innovative technology company... and most journalists don't know the first thing about business.
Elon can't give a 14 paragraph explanation for the switch and if he did people would not read it and it would reveal operational details that he should not reveal. So Elon is forced to give a simplistic answer.
I don't know about xAI, but I've known about the problem at Tesla since April. Have you?
I'm thankful for my good memory. As soon as I read the headline 2 weeks ago, my mind automatically connected the dots. Elon instructed NVDA to reroute back in DECEMBER. Fast forward 4 months and the roof and ground floor were still missing in APRIL
So call Elon overly optimistic on the building timeline, but I don't see how this can be construed as intent to deceive.
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SpaceXaddict
Member
If the vote passes, a new lawsuit would have to be used to suppress it. Delaware rolling would be null, right?
Can't claim that after a widely publicized lawsuit that the shareholders were not fully informed in 2024.
SpaceXaddict
Member
Would you mind sharing the full calendar spread? I don't need quantity but I'm interested in strikes and expirations.
You sold 170-182.5 strangles for this week, what's the position later in the calendar?
I'm thinking of doing something similar. But not sure how to manage it. EG: sell a 150-200 strangle in the near term, maybe buy a 150-200 strangle in the long term. OR maybe just buy a $175 straddle 2 months out and sell weekly 150-200 strangles... then adjust as necessary.
The idea of putting the data center in the extension still blows my mind as idiotic. Such a waste of resources not being in a stand-alone building further north on the site.
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