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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
In the last 27 trading days, AAPL added an entire TSLA in market cap.
(HT: Heisenberg)
(HT: Heisenberg)
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
bonds fell, probably green tomorrow
if CPI and FOMC are on the same day, chance of green:
if CPI and FOMC are on the same day, chance of green:
That means you believe a 15 mth old startup with $6 billion can arrange to take a surprise early delivery that a $600B 15 yr-old company failed to prepare for?
SpaceXaddict
Member
Absolutely, when Elon is running the company and its staffed with people who know how Elon operates, I'm certain they have been preparing to build out a data center around NVIDIA for at least 15 months, probably more like 20 months.
Also, Elon isn't going to give away internal secrets... so it's a good chance DOJO is doing better than expected so they don't need them, and thus better for xAI, or the efficiency gains in their software stack means they don't have to scale hardware as much as they thought they would need to, 24 months ago.
Both are quite possible.
SpaceXaddict
Member
So I'm still managinging my 1st quarter earnings call screw up. I could eat the loss, but while I have made mistakes, I am slowly working down how much I would eat to take the loss.
Meanwhile, I bought a straddle at $175 for this weekly shenanigans. I really feel that we are going $20 one way or the other when the votes are announced.
Also, my strategy going forward is developing. I saw Yoonas "5 premium wheel" diagram. (Below) and have been thinking about a modified version of this.
Where I have gotten into trouble in the past is the surprise $20 move. But I like strangles so I know how to manage them.
So the idea is this-- do below, only sell strangles instead of Straddles.
To mitigate risk, set the width of them out to %90 pop (10 deltas)
Do this weekly and manage. Trying to keep 50/50 shares and cash to cover puts (no margin)
If one side is threatened, roll up the other side.
In theory with a 10 delta the move is so outsized that you are happy to have the contract exercised and the likelihood of falling soon after is pretty good too.
Doing this weekly still nets you more premium per day for equivalent risk (delta anyway) than doing 45 day.
But this is based on this weeks premium and IVR is a bit high right now.
Meanwhile, I bought a straddle at $175 for this weekly shenanigans. I really feel that we are going $20 one way or the other when the votes are announced.
Also, my strategy going forward is developing. I saw Yoonas "5 premium wheel" diagram. (Below) and have been thinking about a modified version of this.
Where I have gotten into trouble in the past is the surprise $20 move. But I like strangles so I know how to manage them.
So the idea is this-- do below, only sell strangles instead of Straddles.
To mitigate risk, set the width of them out to %90 pop (10 deltas)
Do this weekly and manage. Trying to keep 50/50 shares and cash to cover puts (no margin)
If one side is threatened, roll up the other side.
In theory with a 10 delta the move is so outsized that you are happy to have the contract exercised and the likelihood of falling soon after is pretty good too.
Doing this weekly still nets you more premium per day for equivalent risk (delta anyway) than doing 45 day.
But this is based on this weeks premium and IVR is a bit high right now.
The first paragraph is conflicting because if you believe what you said is true "when Elon is running the company and its staffed with people who know how Elon operates, I'm certain they have been preparing to build out a data centre around NVIDIA"
Then why did Tesla not prepare for the shipment? Is he not running Tesla? I assume your first paragraph was referencing XAI and why they were able to take a shipment of graphics cards that Tesla had no need for.
Poor CN numbers, should normally be ramping-up this late in the quarter, not down. Looks like M3H isn't selling particularly well, MY still doing OK
Edit: folks claiming the Dragon Boat Festival is the root-cause behind the dip and that all brands had lower sales, so might be a temporary glitch... markets won't parse that though
Edit: folks claiming the Dragon Boat Festival is the root-cause behind the dip and that all brands had lower sales, so might be a temporary glitch... markets won't parse that though
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I know this is the sell the options thread, but other than ideology... Why not buy the stock with 10% OTM cc for 2 years? At least long term cap gains for most of the profit is available. And both tie up the same amount of capital.
SpaceXaddict
Member
Yes, XAI was prepared... and so was Tesla, but other initiatives removed the need. Before Tesla didn't know how many compute resources were needed to make FSD really work... so they were scaling compute in two ways-- 1, buying NVIDA GPUS, 2- Building DOJO (long term project) 3- Reducing compute need by making things more efficient.
At some point they became "No longer compute constrained" due to some combination of the above three. this means that the space that NVIDIA order would have gone into could be utilized for something more valuable... meaningTesla didn't need them at that time, so they went to XAI.
People seem to want to see drama here but the reality of business is, you cannot plan for the unknown-- it was unknown how much compute would be needed, and in this case, Tesla deployed multiple contingencies that we know of, and lucked into finding a breakthrough in the end to end system where the dynamic changed and that compute was no longer as urgent as it was.
So you have to be flexible... and this is what happened.
Company 1: putting 50k H100s + Dojo in a brand new factory section that didn't even exist when they placed the order
Company 2: putting 12k H100s anywhere they can
Lest you forget, H100 lead time was 8-11 months last year when the orders were placed.
Tesla server room today:
Tesla server room when they swapped deliveries:
This points out rather glaring questions:
1. The Datacenter construction you are showing above was being constructed while Mr. Musk was the (allegedly/presumably) “active/involved” CEO of Tesla, and yet until very recently this Datacenter unpreparedness and many other problems somehow developed that required drastic actions on his part this calendar year. Why were problems not detected / addressed sooner so that Tesla could put these chips to use on the planned delivery date?
2. How, under the same CEO, did the other company somehow find a way to take delivery of these and put them to productive use several months in advance? Was this the one instance of planning at the other company being so dramatically ahead of schedule (not something typically seen)? If so, the question of “why the gap between the two” in terms of preparedness looms large. If not, then the question of “Why not have Tesla do whatever creative solution the other company did?” looms even larger.
I can think of two possible explanations, one malevolent and one benevolent, but both of them require accepting intent to deceive, so I am very much hoping someone has a third explanation of why A) Tesla was so unprepared and B) Tesla was unable or unwilling to take delivery of H100s as planned and put them to use via the same or similar means that the other company was able to use (many months earlier than planned).
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
You're way over-thinking this. Here's an article on why the Austin data center was delayed: Tesla data center delay highlights industrywide challenges
The causes were bad weather and supply-chain issues. Elon evidently blamed the project's director of infrastructure enough to fire him for the delays.
1. We're talking yearish to multiyear time lines for Tesla. Imagine ordering furniture for a house that hasn't been built yet. Weather doesn't respect timelines. They did replace the site leader for Giga Texas earlier this year though.
2. As I mentioned, the scale of the two companies is completely different. Tesla is building out for over 4x the compute of the swapped delivery.
There is no need for deception.
Not to sidetrack the chip discussion but inflation “cooling” and stock go up.
Maybe I’ll get to resell those 185c and join the tall call wall.
Maybe I’ll get to resell those 185c and join the tall call wall.
chillerjt
Member
Ark invest. $2600 expected value for 2029
They have lost a lot of credibility at this point.
People were saying the same thing in 2018...
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