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Sentiment: summer 2020 @ $1000
- Thread starter jhm
- Start date
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I chose lighten up a little, though I won't actually do that; I'll just hold through this. This is more of my view of the macro world, than it is my assessment of Tesla's strategy, execution, or the future.
My view of the macro world is that it's a disaster, and that share prices / market caps come back to meet the economy, rather than the other way around. I don't expect Tesla to experience much directly, but it's been my observation that when the market goes down as much as I expect, then everything goes down as well. Until the market is better founded (connected to the economy), I consider any big move to the upside to be fragile.
(That and $5 is worth a cup of coffee - just the way I see things; I also think there are quite realistic and good alternative hypothesis, and I'll hold my TSLA through whichever of them actually occurs).
My view of the macro world is that it's a disaster, and that share prices / market caps come back to meet the economy, rather than the other way around. I don't expect Tesla to experience much directly, but it's been my observation that when the market goes down as much as I expect, then everything goes down as well. Until the market is better founded (connected to the economy), I consider any big move to the upside to be fragile.
(That and $5 is worth a cup of coffee - just the way I see things; I also think there are quite realistic and good alternative hypothesis, and I'll hold my TSLA through whichever of them actually occurs).
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
Mostly I just buy and hold, but I also have a "sell until you sleep well" policy. The goal is to keep TSLA close to a fixed percentage of my portfolio, kind of like the ARK funds do. When TSLA reached 1000 things looked out of balance, so I sold a few of shares from an IRA account.
A month ago when the price was around $800, I thought I would lighten up by selling a few covered calls ($1200 strike Mar and Jun). Recently at $1000, I'm wishing I could light up those calls, which would put me back into the accumulate camp. As the stock price comes back down from $1000, the short calls are losing value. So automatically I am accumulating just a bit. For the most part, I'm content with the covered calls as a hedge. When there is a substantial moves in my Tesla stock position, the hedge is trimming that back about 1/3. So pretty much I'm happy to hold what I've got.
jeewee3000
Active Member
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I voted Lighten my load a bit, but that's only because I'm going to be buying my Tesla at the beginning of autumn. As such, my current shares that are past their 1 year birthday have incremental sell prices, starting at just under 1k, then a few hundred above that, then a few hundred above that.
If the SP breaks $1500 by August, well--I probably would only sell 1/3rd and call it a day.
If the SP breaks $1500 by August, well--I probably would only sell 1/3rd and call it a day.
I'd love to hear from those who want to buy a crapton more.
I'd surmise that most of us holding what we got have already built up a couple crapton position. So holding is already somewhat bullish.
Would be good to hear the difference.
I'd surmise that most of us holding what we got have already built up a couple crapton position. So holding is already somewhat bullish.
Would be good to hear the difference.
I got in relatively late to the Tesla party but I'm accumulating as and when I have money in my account. Price doesn't really affect me too much at this point as I'll hold for 5+ years.
It looks like $1000 is a fairly sticky price. The market seems to wants to stay close to it. Bears tried to slam it down below $940, but the price strongly rebound going into the end if the trading day.
I'm not sure what it would take to see the price go back down below $700. Of course, it is possible, but it is increasingly looking less likely. If I were wanting to build up a bigger position, I might warm up to accumulating a few shares in the $900 handle. I'm pretty patient though. My average basis is $243/sh, and last nibble was at $420.
I'm not sure what it would take to see the price go back down below $700. Of course, it is possible, but it is increasingly looking less likely. If I were wanting to build up a bigger position, I might warm up to accumulating a few shares in the $900 handle. I'm pretty patient though. My average basis is $243/sh, and last nibble was at $420.
In terms of sentiment, buy a crapton more imo. I think the second half of 2020 is going to be very strong, and within 2-3 years $1,000 is going to look SUPER cheap no matter what way you look at TSLA. So I'm quite highly leveraged, and I personally would be buying pretty much hand over fist if I was still looking to invest more $ into TSLA as a long term investment.
However, in terms of what to actually do, it depends a lot on one's personal situation. My income is too low compared to my portfolio to add any meaningful amount, and I need to save up for personal expenses that I expect to make in the next 1-2 years (currently interviewing to do an MBA), so that I won't have to sell any TSLA at that point.
So I voted "buy a crapton more", but I'm actually "holding what I got".
However, in terms of what to actually do, it depends a lot on one's personal situation. My income is too low compared to my portfolio to add any meaningful amount, and I need to save up for personal expenses that I expect to make in the next 1-2 years (currently interviewing to do an MBA), so that I won't have to sell any TSLA at that point.
So I voted "buy a crapton more", but I'm actually "holding what I got".
I presume the one "short it now" vote was @TrendTrader007 before he changed his mind again?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Lol from a contrarian standpoint your survey is actually pretty reassuringI presume the one "short it now" vote was @TrendTrader007 before he changed his mind again?
Wisdom of crowds is the operating phrase right now and sentiment is far from excessively bullish so sounds like the stock has long ways to go on the upside before it tops out
I will start worrying once the sentiment becomes excessively bullish which it is clearly not at this point in time. Appreciate you doing the survey and please keep up the great work
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I think it won't be as nearly as much of a dropoff as it was for the initial set back. It's not as scary the second time, and we now can waggle our fingers at the states who opened too early with "you should have known better." There will be more stagger drops I think, but probably not too far down.
I think Q2 will overtake any fears.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Fair Comment. You think there will be a dip before month end ? / before the Q2 results are made public ?
wsucougz
Member
Accumulate. I'm saving "Buy a crapton more" for if/when the overall market corrects again. If that doesn't happen I'll just keep accumulating here and there.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I think there maybe a relative dip before earnings, probably fabricated. I don't think it'll go very low, however.
I think there would be a noteworthy dip if the Q2 results aren't as rosy as we all hope (in the 60k-70k range), probably from all the retail investors abandoning ship, and the shorts exasperating it.
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