Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[twinklejet]

I actually have an increasing feeling that volatility might go down a bit. The reason is simply the lack of further catalysts for big movements. EM has said that after the June 20 announcement there will be a period where they will not have much to say. Knowing this, I cannot see why supply and demand of shares would change dramatically after June 20. I am not arguing that the share price will be stable, but that the extreme levels of volatility seen thus far might decline.

For those addicted to the bulls/bears analogy, this would be a period of truce between the bulls and the bears, while both of them are waiting to be restocked with ammo.

I'm of the view that the stream of car deliveries will continue to put upward pressure on the stock. Even better if gas prices go up further.

 

[DonPedro]

I don't know about that. If the bears had a reasonable understanding of what is going on in the world, and this was just a value or risk argument, that would signal a period of calm and decreased volatility.

However, most bears I've been reading have a completely insane point of view of the company, and virtually all of them focusses on things like ZEV credits & federal tax breaks. They're just waiting on the edge of their seat for Tesla to ship the 200'001's vehicle which will mean instant doom of the company after that. And of course, nobody in Europe has any reason to buy a Tesla since they don't have federal subsidies.

I thought this was mostly retail investors but after the autodata thing, I can now see hedge funds and other institutional investors also taking a less than educated position.

I'm not saying that people will stop betting against the company. I'm just saying that there might come a time when there is less entering or exiting positions, because there is no new info. So those who want to be short will already mostly be so, and those who want to be long likewise. The bears will be waiting for their decline, and the bulls will be waiting for their climb.

Remember, most of the large swings we have seen have been in response to news - either the news itself or the fact that an announcement is over ("sell the news"). What is the natural result of less announcements and news? Less large swings.

 

[twinklejet]

Nasdaq composite is downwards yet TSLA is upwards...

 

[deonb]

I'm not saying that people will stop betting against the company. I'm just saying that there might come a time when there is less entering or exiting positions, because there is no new info. So those who want to be short will already mostly be so, and those who want to be long likewise. The bears will be waiting for their decline, and the bulls will be waiting for their climb.

Remember, most of the large swings we have seen have been in response to news - either the news itself or the fact that an announcement is over ("sell the news"). What is the natural result of less announcements and news? Less large swings.

My point is however that they'll invent news. The autodata report ended up being as big a catalyst as an Elon announcement, and that one seems to have been as a result of bears clinging to some piece of nonsense and crying it out from every pulpit that they can find. With dramatic success.

 

[DonPedro]

My point is however that they'll invent news. The autodata report ended up being as big a catalyst as an Elon announcement, and that one seems to have been as a result of bears clinging to some piece of nonsense and crying it out from every pulpit that they can find. With dramatic success.

I concede your point. At the same time, I can't help feeling that Real News + Fake News > Fake News.

 

[callmesam]

Summary of BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS at Shareholder's meeting:


1. Product architecture 7 years with refresh at 3 years and redesign at 7.
2. GEN III will have the form-factor of the Model S and will try to have autopilot.
3. Gross Margins on Gen III will be lower than the 25% projected for Models S and X in order to increase market share and improve affordability.
4. minimum 40,000 units/year demand
5. going from 34 Stores and Galleries to 50.
6. Lot of opportunity in middle America
7. Will have 70 service centers which will soon show up, prior to opening, on teslamotors.com
8. Model X doors will have pinch strips and proximity sensors.
9. End of 2016 will premier Gen III
10. Elon thinks there should be an incentive program for Tesla owners who "sell" cars to their friends.
11. Quick charging is the final announcement and there will be a LIVE DEMONSTRATION on June 20.
12. 120kw charging speed is not the end of the improvements to Supercharging.
13. Zero rent or tiny rent for Supercharging.
14. Expand sales, service and supercharging to rest of world middle of 2014

 

[austinEV]

I'll bet Ferrari does, maybe Porsche as well.

Harley Davidson makes a mint off merchandise.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Got to love this:

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk26m
Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out.
​

How can you not put your money here and stand behind it.

 

[Causalien]

Got to love this: Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk26m Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out. ​ How can you not put your money here and stand behind it.

I am doubling down. Figured if Elon is lying and I completely read him wrong. I deserve to lose my money after all the training I've received in reading body language and investing. They say to not fall in love with a stock, but never anything about not believing in a cause. ...Now, if they can kindly open up gen 3 reservation so I can buy a signature.

 

[brianman]

Now, if they can kindly open up gen 3 reservation so I can buy a signature.

Now this is very interesting. I'm probably pulling us off-topic but...

1. I'm not certain they've "learned enough" from Model S to make Model X Signature compelling.
but
2. I might be willing to give them a shot for Gen 3 Signature.

 

[kenliles]

...Now, if they can kindly open up gen 3 reservation so I can buy a signature.

I'm in on that one. Signature GENIII stopping here on the way to yours in Canada.

 

[Causalien]

I'm in on that one. Signature GENIII stopping here on the way to yours in Canada.

Ah, just remembered I am still showing as in Canada.

 

[Gtoffo]

Going down a lot. Seems beyond normal volatility... negative reaction to something that was said during the Shareholder's meeting? Can't really see what could cause this...

 

[moltenfire]

More likely selling since there was no revolutionary announcement at the AGM, plus no announcements until June 20.

 

[bhuwan]

Going down a lot. Seems beyond normal volatility... negative reaction to something that was said during the Shareholder's meeting? Can't really see what could cause this...

I too am wondering what's going on!

 

[twinklejet]

Some people were wishing for below 90 so they could buy in.. guess they got their wishes.. Some people keep buying up the shares everytime it goes below 90..

 

[Curt Renz]

The decline in the general market is weighing on most stocks today. And the lack of a major new announcement from Elon may indeed have been a factor that motivated hedge funds to initiate new short positions. That triggers a cascade through stop limits set by some shareholders. It also draws in new retail shorts. Then once the price is under $90 the hedge funds appear to cover their shorts. We've seen this several times in recent days and frequently at lower prices over the last couple of months. It also may be that current shareholders or new buyers have limit orders to buy at or under $90. That sets up 88-90 as a support region. In addition, the firms that bought into the recent $92.24 shelf offering would likely want to provide support that keeps the price at or above that level.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Yeah, TSLA just broke to green!

 

[callmesam]

Tesla Motors is making 80 cars/day per Kimbal Musk tweet

Twitter / kimbal: 80 cars per day now @TeslaMotors ...

 

[twinklejet]

the market is still pulling it down.. down.. down..

- - - Updated - - -

Funny. I just got short squeezed.

I woke up this morning with a massive TSLA short position and a margin call. And I mean MASSIVE - my TSLA short position today was 5 times the rest of my account value combined. :crying:

What happened is that I bought a whole bunch of $100 5/31 puts when the stock was at $105 on Friday (They were like 25c's each, so I picked up lots). I read through the brokers options expiration email, and it said that if you don't have the stock into your account, or the money to cover it, they will exercise, and then automatically cover and just send the profits your way. I couldn't nearly cover it so I just let it expire, figuring out they'll close it and just send me the profits.

Except... that's not what they actually did. They actually opened a short position at $100 on me. With over 95% of it on margin (I'm option heavy in my account). I can't open a position like that myself if I tried.

Now luckily I was able to buy it pre-market for $99. But not quite at the $97.77 that we closed at on Friday though. So I lost most of the profits I had on the put but at least didn't make a loss.

But it could have been disasterous. If we gapped up $10 today it would have wiped out half my holdings...

I don't know how people get any sleep at night when they actually short TSLA on purpose .

Why buy it at $99 when it's on the way down?