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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
I'm with you about the tea leaves giving the right signs today and the price being real and not simply due to the computer errors. However, seeing the ask price below the bid in after hours had me a little worried.
Norbert
TSLA will win
It was a news item on Reuters half an hour before the run (which started when trading went online again)
Add to that the China news, Elon's comments of future factories, the ABC News Special and, as said above the E trademark and CNBC staying at the factory throughout the day, the crash test talk still in and on the air... wow. What a day. No wonder the stock went so high.
The question is, will it pull back again tomorrow or go for 160?
Bardlebee
Member
sahanim
Member
[FONT=&]Here's my first attempt at predicting future $Tsla movement:
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Background: To learn price movements and the options market I set aside ~$2000 to play with. I bought sept 170 calls at the beginning of august when the price was at $138/share expecting an epic short squeeze after the q2 report, which never ended up happening. Now, with the whole market instability because of the fed taper talk and my options being in the red since the q2 report I decided Monday was the day I would bite the bullet and live to see another day.
I obviously wasn't expecting this great run up in the last 2 days. I missed out on and had I held onto my sept calls I would be in the green today. C'est la vie.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Lookingforward:
I did some simple visual analysis and realized there was a small pattern forming in the number of days we've spent at certain price levels. Here are my findings:[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 110s: ~8 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 120s: ~10 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 130s: ~8 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 140s: ~9 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 150s: ~3 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]As you can see, starting at the $110 level, we've spent approx. 8-10 days for each $10 increment. I would argue that this is the same pattern other people have described using channels, just represented in a different form. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]With this and other information from this thread, the two conclusions I am coming up with are either the stock will flat-line at the ATH of $158.88 for another 5-7 days or the stock will go north of 160 with enough demand followed by a correction back into the 150s. The only problem with my latter conclusion is that it does not factor in a short squeeze. The media is going crazy with the safety report and elon could be getting ready to fire off some more rounds. This could be result in another purging of the "short tesla" movement which will cause some intense volatility. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]Right now i'm considering buying some puts if we see the price go north of 160 without any new news. This could obviously change if none of my predictions turn out to be correct. Lastly, I'm fairly new to this so im not 100% confident in what im doing. Any suggestions/thoughts are welcomed.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Background: To learn price movements and the options market I set aside ~$2000 to play with. I bought sept 170 calls at the beginning of august when the price was at $138/share expecting an epic short squeeze after the q2 report, which never ended up happening. Now, with the whole market instability because of the fed taper talk and my options being in the red since the q2 report I decided Monday was the day I would bite the bullet and live to see another day.
I obviously wasn't expecting this great run up in the last 2 days. I missed out on and had I held onto my sept calls I would be in the green today. C'est la vie.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Lookingforward:
I did some simple visual analysis and realized there was a small pattern forming in the number of days we've spent at certain price levels. Here are my findings:[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 110s: ~8 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 120s: ~10 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 130s: ~8 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 140s: ~9 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]Time spent in the 150s: ~3 days[/FONT]
[FONT=&]As you can see, starting at the $110 level, we've spent approx. 8-10 days for each $10 increment. I would argue that this is the same pattern other people have described using channels, just represented in a different form. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]With this and other information from this thread, the two conclusions I am coming up with are either the stock will flat-line at the ATH of $158.88 for another 5-7 days or the stock will go north of 160 with enough demand followed by a correction back into the 150s. The only problem with my latter conclusion is that it does not factor in a short squeeze. The media is going crazy with the safety report and elon could be getting ready to fire off some more rounds. This could be result in another purging of the "short tesla" movement which will cause some intense volatility. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]Right now i'm considering buying some puts if we see the price go north of 160 without any new news. This could obviously change if none of my predictions turn out to be correct. Lastly, I'm fairly new to this so im not 100% confident in what im doing. Any suggestions/thoughts are welcomed.[/FONT]
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
yes, great book! Very educational, there's a really good one called "Automate This" and the first chapter is about the markets first going electronic, the rest of the book is really good as well (ie. about how algos are taking over the world in other industries as well)
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Depends on the broker you use, you see...there are 15-20 US exchanges and ECNs that each stock trades on. I saw that too this afternoon on my broker's screen showing the NBBO being crossed but I've been around enough to know that I'm sure it is because one of those 15-20 ECNs wasn't working properly after the NASDAQ came back up and was showing stale quotes. The broker will sometimes not recognize this quick enough and can include the stale quote in the NBBO it shows its customers, hence the confusion you said you saw in the crossed bid/offer spread you...most brokers act quickly to take out the data from the ECN quoting the stale quotes, but others may not act so quick.
Any thoughts about Elon's comments on the stock price and what that may mean to short term prices? I enjoy watching him as he definitely likes to set a 'realistic' bar then consistently over performs.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I think actions speak louder than words. He hasn't sold a single share. But who knows, it could have some effect.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
More or less that the market is being very generous with it's valuation, that he wants to work hard and prove that it's worth of the valuation it has, but also that he thinks a lot of future stuff is priced in. Also mentioned that sentiment will have huge effects on the price.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000193150
Not anything bad. Very honest and nothing that this forum has not discussed. Just do not know the impact on 'outside' investors.
I see, sounds like a fair and diplomatic answer. I wonder what he really thinks...
(Can't watch video yet because I'm at work)
His answer actually seemed very genuine and honest. And he is right, the market is being really generous and expecting them to execute flawlessly until Model E (glad we don't have to call it Gen III anymore
). If I was on the fence about buying Tesla stock and heard this response, I probably wouldn't invest.His answer actually seemed very genuine and honest. And he is right, the market is being really generous and expecting them to execute flawlessly until Model E (glad we don't have to call it Gen III anymore
This is what I am thinking if I am an investor. So, it will be interesting to see what this will do to short term price. Long term, I think he/TM continues to beat expectations. In addition, I think the whole battery issue (which was my biggest long term worry) is/will be addressed in time not to seriously impact 'E' ramp up.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Your perspective is different from mine. The world needs more honest and upfront CEO's. when I hear him say things like that and "we make the same profit no matter which market we are selling our cars in", and "our service centers are 0 profit." I want to invest more.
Keep your sense of humor handy everyone, I find it hard to imagine we won't see some articles courtesy of our short friends along the lines of: "Never mind the 'cult of Tesla', Elon Musk himself thinks Tesla's valuation is exuberant."
Of course, such articles won't include what I think is the key piece of context... Elon has repeatedly expressed his strong confidence of a clear path to Gen III, and in his comments today on the stock price he basically said the price will vary based on the ups and downs of market confidence in Tesla's future execution.
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I agree Shadows. Really appreciate the honesty. In this case I think some will try to take advantage of it. I think it's possible part of why he said this is he doesn't want the stock to move into bubble territory with unsophisticated investors expecting another 5-fold gain in a year being burned (and Tesla's name getting associated with bubbles and other unreliable things).
marvinat0rz
Member
Yeah, that was my thought too. That comment was not full disclosure by any measure. Although it was very fair and diplomatic.
His answer actually seemed very genuine and honest. And he is right, the market is being really generous and expecting them to execute flawlessly until Model E (glad we don't have to call it Gen III anymore
When he answers confidently, they call it arrogance. When he answers with humility, they call it weakness.
Personally, I think maybe he doesn't want to scare off the shorts yet. Come on in, the water's fine...
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