Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[CalDreamin]

I was suprised when they kept guidance at 21,000. Do they expect anyone to be surprised when they do better?

About 40% of current Model S production is for Europe. 40% of 600/week is 240/week. I believe it takes about 4 weeks to ship cars from Fremont to Europe. So ~1000 Model S could be in transit to Europe at end of 3Q, produced but not sold/delivered. Does that sound right?

 

[gym7rjm]

Am I the only one getting vibes that this Gen3 car is on the fast track? Recent rumors have me wondering if they might sell it a year or so after Model X.

1. Rumor of third battery supplier in China. Will they really need 3 suppliers for X & S alone?

2. Trademark of Model E. Will Gen3 be called Model E? Why do it now? Only thing I can think of is an announcement soon.

3. Recent quote from Elon in an interview "the technology to build the Gen3 is already here today". He has said stuff like this before, but this felt different. Maybe the Chinese batteries will be significantly cheaper?

4. Tesla employees hinting at "cool stuff to come". We all assumed they were referring to Model S improvements, but maybe they are hearing about Gen3 announcements. They would be pretty excited because that would REALLY pack the stores.

Tesla understands that in order to sell a car for the masses they must tackle the issues prohibiting that goal now... battery supply and vehicle production constraints are the two big ones IMO. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of some new factory acquisitions after the launch of Model X because NUMMI just isn't large enough for global Model E demand. In fact, NUMMI isn't even large enough for US demand so it's only a matter of time till another factory is built or acquired in the US. Battery plants take time to build and ramp, so work in that area needs to go now, especially consicering Model E will use more Li-Ion batteries than the world can make right now... Panasonic's $200 million investment and the Samsung news are just a start to a big problem.

It's hard to say how fast Tesla will move on the Gen 3. Tesla has obviously learned a lot on the ramp up of the Model S. These lessons will be seen with a more fluid launch and ramp of the Model X. Are these lessons learned translatable to a mass produced car an order of magnitude larger than Model X or S?

It would be perfect if Gen 3 hit full blown US production at the start of the quarter where Tesla sells it's 200,000th EV. This would qualify early gen3 buyers nearly 6 quarters of tax rebates. Since the rebate rules don't seem to list a vehicle limit during the credit phase, out hundreds of thousands of purchases could potentially qualify. Imagine the stampede of pre-orders knowing you would get a $7500 rebate on a Gen3? This positive feedback loop would be good for Tesla and good for EV adoption, not to mention very good for their stock price.

In order to make this scenario possible Gen 3 needs to debut before 200k US sales which really depends on how much Tesla ramps up production of S and X and how long they wait. I don't want to see Tesla push too fast and make mistakes, but if it is within reach it would be a shame to miss that small window of opportunity. Thoughts?

 

[mitch672]

Thoughts on why Gen3/Model E can't be released too soon.... It's really 2 issues:

COST of the batteries is the main reason. Period. End of story. The cost must come down by 1/2 or 2/3, to be able to sell a 200 mile range car for $35K. The other reason has already been mentioned several times, availability of enough cells to mass produce the car. The issue is asking Panasonic and the other battery manufactures "Hey, we need 25 times the batteries we are now buying from you, and BTW, we need to pay 1/3 or 1/2 what we are now paying".

Math: 20K cars annually to 500K cars annually, roughly 25 times the quantity of batteries

 

[JRP3]

I very seriously doubt it for many reasons.

* Tesla (Elon) has spoken many times about 3-4 years, so we're looking at 2016 at the earliest.
* They haven't even got the X out of design stage yet. Elon's said most of his time is being spent on the X design at this point.
* In several interviews, Elon has talked about needing a few years of battery improvements to meet the E's range goals.
* In at least one interview, Elon talked about needing around a billion dollars to fund the E and being able to do that from S/X profits.

There's just no way. Not enough time, not enough people, not enough money, and not enough batteries to "fast track" it.

This.

 

[jeff_adams]

I very seriously doubt it for many reasons.

* Tesla (Elon) has spoken many times about 3-4 years, so we're looking at 2016 at the earliest.

I was saying end of 2015, so not too far away from that timeline.

* They haven't even got the X out of design stage yet. Elon's said most of his time is being spent on the X design at this point.

You must have meant "final design", because they have been showing off a prototype for quite some time.

* In several interviews, Elon has talked about needing a few years of battery improvements to meet the E's range goals.

Yep and I believed that. Now I'm wondering. Why sign an agreement with the Chinese battery company 3-4 years out? What if the Chinese company can sell the Model E batteries cheap enough in 2 years?

Maybe Elon promised the Chinese government he would build some cars in China? Could they not subsidize the battery company's costs so they could deliver cheap enough batteries to Tesla? They have sent some people to Freemont to see the factory and meet with Tesla representatives. They can imagine how many Gen3 cars Elon can sell in China. The government wants cleaner air in the major cities.

What if all Model E cars were built in China? How much cheaper would that be? Could they hit the gross margins they want?

* In at least one interview, Elon talked about needing around a billion dollars to fund the E and being able to do that from S/X profits.

Obama has talked about kick starting the DOE loan program again. You can bet the Chinese would offer a low interest loan as well. Elon could easily raise the capitol he needs if he wanted to.

There's just no way. Not enough time, not enough people, not enough money, and not enough batteries to "fast track" it.

I certainly felt like that, but I'm just not sure. We know Tesla will be building the X for sure. They seemed determined to make the E plus a small SUV on the same platform. There are comments from Elon about building a sports car and truck in the future.

My gut feeling is they will want to add one new vehicle a year. If that's true, they now have a 5 year plan.

 

[JRP3]

They've always had a 5 year plan. 2012-2017, S,X,G3, then expand on those platforms for the future.

 

[ckessel]

I was saying end of 2015, so not too far away from that timeline.

It took 2 years from the time Tesla had a factory and purchased equipment to get the Model S line moving at a relatively slow velocity (2010-2012). Tesla needs a huge bunch of equipment again (and people) for the Model E line. They'd have to be getting the factory stuff ready RIGHT NOW to make it happen by 2015. They don't even have the presses ready for the X.

I understand being hopeful, but you're way, way beyond that into fantasy territory

 

[InTheShadows]

I think I rember reading that they were going to produce the X on the same line. I'll look for the source.

 

[ckessel]

I think I rember reading that they were going to produce the X on the same line. I'll look for the source.

Probably the same line, but different dies. On the tour they talked about swapping out dies and doing a bunch of whatever those dies were, then swapping again, etc. I'd guess with the X they'd have yet more dies. If they don't get more pressing lines though, they're going to have to really up their throughput to get enough stampings out to do both the X and S. I suppose they can run more shifts.

 

[TSLAopt]

I think I rember reading that they were going to produce the X on the same line. I'll look for the source.

When did you order and did you get a delivery date yet? Just trying to get a feel for how long the wait is these days to help gage demand/production

 

[InTheShadows]

Finalized 8/13, got our vin# 8/15, delivery date 9/28.

 

[smorgasbord]

for me the results are secondary as I have deeper and more important goals. I'm trying to refine my thinking and understanding, and improve my decision making processes....

I would think we've got a 60-80% chance of gapping down tomorrow, and then if it does gap down at open then another 60-80% that we close lower than we opened. However, there's always a chance that buyers show up and stop the downward momentum (ie., we could see stock open higher tomorrow and consolidate in the 160s or higher). However, at this point I'm not very optimistic. Momentum was reversed in a serious way today, and it would take some major buying to keep TSLA in the 160s IMO. But if somehow uptrend momentum can be recovered tomorrow, I'm looking to re-enter with a position if it breaks through the 170.5 level (possibly earlier in the 167-8ish level but depending on strength at that moment). (note: I'm also playing some small short-term scalper positions, ie., bought some weekly puts during the breakdown. And these positions can/will change during the day.)

OK, so now that we've seen today's action was quite strong (and on a overall market down day), have you revised your thinking? Did you re-enter in the 167 level (at which it closed)?

I think a safer strategy is to have some kind of trailing stop loss (ie., $4 lower than a previous high) that auto adjusts the stop loss order according to the current price of the stock.

Stop loss orders on a volatile stock like Tesla are asking for trouble, IMO. $4 is less than 2.5% of the price, and so it'd be easy to get sold out on the dip before the next run-up.

 

[TSLAopt]

Finalized 8/13, got our vin# 8/15, delivery date 9/28.

so it is getting slightly longer...I'm guessing the hype for this car will continue to grow and the waits will get increasingly longer despite their increases in production...ultimately it will cause the stock price to further inflate as the hype for this car goes viral globally....right now it's just on CNBC but soon the hype for this car will catch everywhere in the world pushing the stock insanely higher...I'm tempted to buy a ton of OTM options (ie. 200 or 220 strikes) again for December or March to see if I can get another 10 bagger+...I would say chances are 25-50% which is pretty good odds for a 10 bagger

 

[blakegallagher]

Finalized 8/13, got our vin# 8/15, delivery date 9/28.

The website says about a month for P85's I have been checking it waiting for it to go to 2 months I am glad to see yours was about 1 and 1/2 months. it seems likely that when the wait list grows it will cause the stock to balloon due to the waves of new retail investors. (due to the many articles that will run big headlines)

 

[jeff_adams]

I understand being hopeful, but you're way, way beyond that into fantasy territory

Yeah, it's highly unlikely I have to admit.

Only possible way it could happen is if Chinese government dangled a great big carrot in front of Elon.

What if they loaned a Chinese battery manufacturor enough capitol to sell batteries to Tesla at a loss to kickstart Gen3? Didn't they do that for the solar panel manufacturors to corner the market?

The idea would be to improve margins until the battery maker could be profitable and pay the government back (just like Tesla did on the DOE loan)


They could certainly hook up Tesla with a sweetheart factory deal to build Gen3 if they wanted to (no retooling of Freemont needed). Question is, could cheaper labor, cheaper materials and cheaper batteries be enough to lure Tesla into doing it?

 

[austinEV]

Finalized 8/13, got our vin# 8/15, delivery date 9/28.

I made my order 10 minutes before TheShadows (got the previous sequential VIN ) They said my car would be ready as early as next week Sept 6.

Did you request a later date?

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, it's highly unlikely I have to admit.

Only possible way it could happen is if Chinese government dangled a great big carrot in front of Elon.

What if they loaned a Chinese battery manufacturor enough capitol to sell batteries to Tesla at a loss to kickstart Gen3? Didn't they do that for the solar panel manufacturors to corner the market?

The idea would be to improve margins until the battery maker could be profitable and pay the government back (just like Tesla did on the DOE loan)


They could certainly hook up Tesla with a sweetheart factory deal to build Gen3 if they wanted to (no retooling of Freemont needed). Question is, could cheaper labor, cheaper materials and cheaper batteries be enough to lure Tesla into doing it?

+1000000. I love this theory.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I was making fun of the suspicion. Come on it is 23million shared traded yesterday. When there is about 200 pairs of eye balls, not sure how much volume those eyeball brings, and whether that tips the balance of going up or down. :wink:

I am guilty of posting the thought that this board might have an influence on the direction the stock price is taking. I made that observation after the sudden reversal in yesterday's price direction after CitizenT brought everyone back down to earth with his post. I agree it may be coincidence but is the idea really that far fetched?

I have noticed anytime there is big movement in the stock, this thread gets a lot of guest users, in the hundreds. What brings them to this site at that very moment? I know a 100 guests equals 200 eyeballs, but that is a snapshot in time. Five minutes later, they could be the eyeballs of 100 new guests, it can equate to quite a few over the course of a trading day. Maybe a good portion of them are looking to make a decision on trading a few thousand shares? It could add up, that's all I'm saying.

 

[InTheShadows]

I made my order 10 minutes before TheShadows (got the previous sequential VIN ) They said my car would be ready as early as next week Sept 6.

Did you request a later date?

No, I choose the earliest possible. Could be configuration batching. I am also under the old options, I think you choose the new. Could also be location as I'm on the east coast.

 

[austinEV]

You know you should get out of the advice biz when you don't follow your own advice. I have been suggesting that the right play is to just trust a relentless trend upward over a few weeks. But Monday I freaked right out and figured it was too much too soon and closed my calls near the top (great timing) and bought less again this morning. But it look how nicely things are going in the same little relentless channel. It now seems like that 172 gap will be filled soon enough without all the stress.

 

[jeff_adams]

+1000000. I love this theory.

Haha, it's a classic conspiracy theory. Chinese delegation visits Tesla factory. DOE loan is paid off soon afterward (and the restrictions to build only in USA go away). Tesla expresses a lot of "excitement" about Chinese market. Rumor that Tesla not only reached an agreement with Samsung to provide batteries, but also a Chinese company.

Elon has said he will not rest until EV cars replace ICE vehicles. Maybe the Chinese government has become a believer in his mission. If Elon is right, the government would be providing a lot of jobs by backing him.