Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[mrdoubleb]

That lady is sharp! It's good to watch her talking about Tesla over two years ago -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrM1rhk7Rxc

WOW! So funny, because i noticed her over the past couple of months, thinking she has such smart and logical reasoning and is spot on with her opinion. Now looking at this interview, it makes me even more confident in her recent 200 Dollar target (August 26 interview).

One may think "well, she just had a lucky guess 2 years ago", but if you pay attention to her answers in the interview, it really shows how prepared and smart she is.

Great find!

 

[justthateasy]

That lady is sharp! It's good to watch her talking about Tesla over two years ago -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrM1rhk7Rxc

Amazing to watch videos like that with the current perspective of how things panned out. She was spot on on everything and I feel like she still today is the one analyst who actually gets Tesla and shares the views of the potential that we on this board have.

Wow did she change a lot or something? Seems like two different people with the same name! (in a good way)

She is the anti-Peterson! Link this video in the comment section of his articles. They are both on public record. One seems very smart while the other looks more foolish every day....

I like that she toured the factory before making that PT increase to $40 / share. Some analysts just sit in their offices the whole day calling out numbers from thin air (or a thin computer screen and many thin sheets of paper)

WOW! So funny, because i noticed her over the past couple of months, thinking she has such smart and logical reasoning and is spot on with her opinion. Now looking at this interview, it makes me even more confident in her recent 200 Dollar target (August 26 interview).

One may think "well, she just had a lucky guess 2 years ago", but if you pay attention to her answers in the interview, it really shows how prepared and smart she is.

Great find!

You guys got me to watch all her other videos!

Amazing how she called what we're seeing now back in 2011. I've seen her name in an article or two about Tesla but I'll be adding her to the people I follow about the company and the stock.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Don't know if you guys have seen this, Yuri_G posted this over at the battery thread.

Samsung SDI poised to sign deal with Tesla-The Korea Herald

The short of it is that Tesla is on the verge of signing a deal with Samsung for batteries. Yuri did not quote this part, but the original article says China's BYD (yes, that BYD) will be a 3rd supplier. This was posted 2 days ago but i have not seen it in the mainstream western media yet.

If and when this is officially announced, I think it has the possibility to start another run for the stock. Not only would this remove some of the big constraints on supply Elon was talking about, but a name like Samsung joining Panasonic by commiting to deliveries of (hundreds of) millions of cells per year should also strengthen confidence in the compamny.

 

[hoang51]

I'm starting to wonder if that battery contract rumor is the reason why we made a big jump yesterday and still stabilizing today. If so, once the contract is finalized, the stock would definitely shoot up. The battery article was released 8/25 and updated 8/26.

 

[justthateasy]

I was busy all morning and didn't have the chance to look at my watch list on my trading platform on my desktop but man oh man was it a bloodbath. The only stock to finish green was TSLA.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I'm starting to wonder if that battery contract rumor is the reason why we made a big jump yesterday and still stabilizing today. If so, once the contract is finalized, the stock would definitely shoot up. The battery article was released 8/25 and updated 8/26.

I think the jump yesterday was due to the California data. That got picked up pretty well by the media all over. May be just me, but i haven't seen the battery news at yahoo finance, bloomberg, cnbc and the likes. I only found out about it by reading these forums.

 

[jeff_adams]

Amazing to watch videos like that with the current perspective of how things panned out. She was spot on on everything and I feel like she still today is the one analyst who actually gets Tesla and shares the views of the potential that we on this board have.

There are more than one. Adam Jonas has been saying the same thing for quite a while. They understand disruptive technology better than their colleagues. They do their homework.

Something tells me they will end up with a lot more clients by being so right about Tesla. The people that listened to them have made fortunes.

 

[30seconds]

in case you haven't been watching the official board, the VIN assignment ramp seems to have accelerated to 600/ week, with the latest report ~21,500. I think this is a good indication that both production and demand are set up for a solid Q3 and 2013Y beat over current mgmt guidance and analyst projections.

 

[MikeC]

in case you haven't been watching the official board, the VIN assignment ramp seems to have accelerated to 600/ week, with the latest report ~21,500. I think this is a good indication that both production and demand are set up for a solid Q3 and 2013Y beat over current mgmt guidance and analyst projections.

I agree. Also, the 600/week rate is based on the slope of a straight line, but since we know they are accelerating
production, a curved line would fit better and have a steeper instantaneous slope, implying a rate even greater than 600.

 

[Thumper]

Some months ago we knew that Tesla had asked a supplier (for frunk liners if I remember right) to ramp up to 650/wk delivery rate for September. It looks like they likely to hit that production rate.

 

[PeterW]

I was suprised when they kept guidance at 21,000. Do they expect anyone to be surprised when they do better?

 

[Bonken]

There are more than one. Adam Jonas has been saying the same thing for quite a while. They understand disruptive technology better than their colleagues. They do their homework.

Something tells me they will end up with a lot more clients by being so right about Tesla. The people that listened to them have made fortunes.

Yes Adam Jonas has always been very good, and one of the few analysts that asked relevant and knowledgeble questions during conference calls etc. I do however feel like he does not fully believe in the product (Model S) as he still says things like "You have to treat it as a toy and be completely cool if it doesn't work". I think that most of the people here and who own a Model S sees it as much more than just a toy but rather a primary and fully functional car for daily use in commutes and roadtrips.

 

[fjm9898]

I was suprised when they kept guidance at 21,000. Do they expect anyone to be surprised when they do better?

they kept it at 21,00 purely in case they do run into some kind of supply issue they would have some cushion. If they raised and then missed it would look bad. Better to meet or outperform instead of possibly missing.

 

[brianstorms]

they kept it at 21,00 purely in case they do run into some kind of supply issue they would have some cushion. If they raised and then missed it would look bad. Better to meet or outperform instead of possibly missing.

A very reasonable explanation. That, and they prolly wanted to save some great news for the Q3 call

 

[ppl]

Ok doubt many Syria experts here but what do you think Syrian conflict does to the price? Seems Syrians fired first volley with cyber attacks. Now I don't mind the target (new York times) but tesla does a lot over the internet. Of course increase in oil could help price and highlight our need to decrease oil dependence. Of course there could be a dump of all stocks, although tsla seemed almost immune today. Any ideas

 

[Zythryn]

Ok doubt many Syria experts here but what do you think Syrian conflict does to the price? Seems Syrians fired first volley with cyber attacks. Now I don't mind the target (new York times) but tesla does a lot over the internet. Of course increase in oil could help price and highlight our need to decrease oil dependence. Of course there could be a dump of all stocks, although tsla seemed almost immune today. Any ideas

That actually is not what happened.
The NYT put Broder in charge of the server farm:wink:

I think if there is an actual spike in gas prices we will see a short term rise in TSLA as well.
Frankly, I am sure we will see another spike that lasts many months at some point. I am just hoping it doesn't happen until Tesla is building the third gen sedan.

 

[Clprenz]

You guys got me to watch all her other videos!

Amazing how she called what we're seeing now back in 2011. I've seen her name in an article or two about Tesla but I'll be adding her to the people I follow about the company and the stock.

I've emailed with Andrea before and we have kept in touch. I let her know about the frunk factory, increased production rates and other info. She is truly as awesome as she seems in the videos. I think she has been promoted several times since may... Now Vice President of the company!

 

[jeff_adams]

That actually is not what happened.
The NYT put Broder in charge of the server farm:wink:

I think if there is an actual spike in gas prices we will see a short term rise in TSLA as well.
Frankly, I am sure we will see another spike that lasts many months at some point. I am just hoping it doesn't happen until Tesla is building the third gen sedan.

Am I the only one getting vibes that this Gen3 car is on the fast track? Recent rumors have me wondering if they might sell it a year or so after Model X.

1. Rumor of third battery supplier in China. Will they really need 3 suppliers for X & S alone?

2. Trademark of Model E. Will Gen3 be called Model E? Why do it now? Only thing I can think of is an announcement soon.

3. Recent quote from Elon in an interview "the technology to build the Gen3 is already here today". He has said stuff like this before, but this felt different. Maybe the Chinese batteries will be significantly cheaper?

4. Tesla employees hinting at "cool stuff to come". We all assumed they were referring to Model S improvements, but maybe they are hearing about Gen3 announcements. They would be pretty excited because that would REALLY pack the stores.

 

[DaveT]

No megapost today. I need time and space to think about my trades.

But I will say TSLA's strength was very impressive today in midst of a market sell-off. It seems like shorts want to pull the stock down under 160, and longs want to push the stock above 170. The 160s appear to be a very unsettling place where there's a fierce battle going on. High volume, and lots at stake.

We'll see how tomorrow unfolds.

 

[ckessel]

Am I the only one getting vibes that this Gen3 car is on the fast track? Recent rumors have me wondering if they might sell it a year or so after Model X.

I very seriously doubt it for many reasons.

* Tesla (Elon) has spoken many times about 3-4 years, so we're looking at 2016 at the earliest.
* They haven't even got the X out of design stage yet. Elon's said most of his time is being spent on the X design at this point.
* In several interviews, Elon has talked about needing a few years of battery improvements to meet the E's range goals.
* In at least one interview, Elon talked about needing around a billion dollars to fund the E and being able to do that from S/X profits.

There's just no way. Not enough time, not enough people, not enough money, and not enough batteries to "fast track" it.