Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Wenche]

Hello fellow Teslarians! Warm greetings from Hong Kong!

First of all, before you start reading my long post, please excuse my English as it is not my first language


My buddy who is a sport car fanatic asked me to join him for a test drive in the Tesla Model S here in Hong Kong last month and I absolutely loved experience! In fact, my affection for the car was so great that I could not resist the temptation to join my buddy as one of the first 'official' owners of the Model S in Hong Kong (we know of a few proud Hong Kong's Tesla Model S owners who did not have the patient to wait until the official launch and have imported the car into the city already). I spent the subsequent week cajoling my wife to allow me to sell one of our 2 family cars and replace it with the Model S as our we only have 2 car parks in our apartment building. In case, you guys are not aware of, real estate is extremely expensive in Hong Kong and car parks (both commercial and residential) often command astronomical prices (costing USD $200,000 - $400,000 per car park). After a lot of pestering my wife gave in, I placed my deposit with Tesla Hong Kong, and now I am anxiously waiting for the official launch.


Since investing/stock is also another huge passion of mine (as with perhaps more than 50% of the adult Hong Kong population! from professional local investors to stay at home moms and even restaurants chefs and street cleaners….virtually everyone in Hong Kong has a brokerage account to invest or trade), I took a keen interest on TSLA.


I started with a smaller stake at the end of July, added some more at the beginning of August and then made my last purchase during the dip to $135-140 two weeks ago. My average cost is just above $130 and my ~25% gain in just 1 month is more than enough to cover the deposit I have paid for the Model S. Thanks Elon!


I have been an avid reader of the forum and particularly this investor thread over the past month and I cannot express enough gratitude towards its many contributors (Kurt, Austin, Dave etc…) for their invaluable posts that helped guide me in my TSLA investment. Thanks guys!

Welcome to you
I find it very interesting to read your views about Hong Kong. China is considered as a wild card, I have heard.
I see there are some concerns, that maybe the seats at back needs to be changed for the China market, because at lot of Chines people are driven by their chauffeur. Do you have any thoughts about this?

 

[sub]

anyone think there will be a sell off on Friday due to the Holiday? Maybe it's best to wait for that to buy some additional shares?

 

[ongba]

Labor Day in the United States on Monday.

 

[redharel]

it's about time the SEC take a look at TSLA trading, price manipulation is screaming here!

 

[twinklejet]

it's about time the SEC take a look at TSLA trading, price manipulation is screaming here!

You say that because...? I don't see anything manipulative today

 

[redharel]

You say that because...? I don't see anything manipulative today

i guess you need a binocular then...
2% up then 2% down now 1/2% up
not to mention monday 6%+ up then in couple of hours 6% down and i can give you another 101 examples just in the last 100 day trades
if that's not a stock manipulation then what is?

 

[ckessel]

i guess you need a binocular then...
2% up then 2% down now 1/2% up
not to mention monday 6%+ up then in couple of hours 6% down and i can give you another 101 examples just in the last 100 day trades
if that's not a stock manipulation then what is?

Welcome to the normal volatility of TSLA. Been that way since at least Jan 2011 when I started following it.

 

[Citizen-T]

I still think we are at a short term top here. That said, on Aug 30th TSLA officially gets added to the MSI (if I remember correctly) Global index. In addition to that, it is the end of the month so there is likely some window dressing that is going to happen here.

As a result, we may see a spike over the next two or 3 days. I expect this to be very short-lived, but I may close out some of the covered calls I wrote when we were at $172+. They are only up 25% sadly, but I'm not sure I want to hold them these few days. I may write new ones if this pop does materialize. I'll likely keep my puts so that I am still hedged against anything bad happening.

Just thinking out loud.

 

[ongba]

Curious as to what other chart readers are seeing with regards to tsla. My take (for what it's worth): Looks like it is trying to form a bull flag over 160 with a successful (so far) retest of the 5 day MA today (which isn't too reliable as tsla does not seem to respect the 5 day or 10 day MA). It seems the best time to buy has been when it has touched and bounced off the 20 day MA. Hoping for an opportunity to enter should we be be so lucky for it to get down there again. Also, may consider an entry if it breaks above the ATH and overall indices develop a bullish trend again.

 

[gregincal]

i guess you need a binocular then...
2% up then 2% down now 1/2% up
not to mention monday 6%+ up then in couple of hours 6% down and i can give you another 101 examples just in the last 100 day trades
if that's not a stock manipulation then what is?

And I can give you examples of hundreds of other volatile stocks that trade exactly the same way. It's normal fluctuations. Even AAPL, with a valuation of 450 billion is just about as volatile.

 

[Kipernicus]

I still think we are at a short term top here. That said, on Aug 30th TSLA officially gets added to the MSI (if I remember correctly) Global index. In addition to that, it is the end of the month so there is likely some window dressing that is going to happen here.

As a result, we may see a spike over the next two or 3 days. I expect this to be very short-lived, but I may close out some of the covered calls I wrote when we were at $172+. They are only up 25% sadly, but I'm not sure I want to hold them these few days. I may write new ones if this pop does materialize. I'll likely keep my puts so that I am still hedged against anything bad happening.

Just thinking out loud.

Citizen-T I don't understand the part about your covered calls. I thought when you write a covered call the max profit you can realize is the premium you received. What do you mean about them being up 25% and your wanting to close them out? Seems like if you wrote a call when the stock was at 172 and now the stock is well below, you should do nothing until they expire and you keep the premium, right?

Thanks

 

[redharel]

And I can give you examples of hundreds of other volatile stocks that trade exactly the same way. It's normal fluctuations. Even AAPL, with a valuation of 450 billion is just about as volatile.

two wrong doesn't make it right...
the SEC guys are useless, the us market is corrupted from the bone!

 

[v12 to 12v]

Welcome to the normal volatility of TSLA. Been that way since at least Jan 2011 when I started following it.

I recall it being like this all of 2012 as well. It just looks more dramatic because the price per share is higher.

 

[Citizen-T]

Citizen-T I don't understand the part about your covered calls. I thought when you write a covered call the max profit you can realize is the premium you received. What do you mean about them being up 25% and your wanting to close them out? Seems like if you wrote a call when the stock was at 172 and now the stock is well below, you should do nothing until they expire and you keep the premium, right?

Thanks

Yeah, the 25% is the difference between what I sold them for and what it would cost me to buy them back.

The thing is that I think there might be a spike in the share price over the next couple days. I think it will be short term, but it might also break us out of this channel and send the stock much higher. If that happens I'd rather not be positioned the way I am right now. If it spikes but looks like it will be short lived (which is what I am thinking will happen) then I can get back into this trade (write new calls) and try again.

 

[AlMc]

i guess you need a binocular then...
2% up then 2% down now 1/2% up
not to mention monday 6%+ up then in couple of hours 6% down and i can give you another 101 examples just in the last 100 day trades
if that's not a stock manipulation then what is?

I believe all small/medium cap momentum stocks are subject to all kinds of wild swings. These swings can be manipulated, but manipulated in both ways by the dissemination of rumor, half truths and speculation. I do not know how you would take this out of the market place. It may not be pretty and it may not be right but it is the system we have. It is buyer beware.

 

[AudubonB]

And it's seller beware, as well, AIMc.

Redharel, your posts are puzzling. You come on as a new member to this forum and if I am not mistaken, exactly 100% of your posts so far are either insinuating or absolutely stating that this stock's price is being manipulated. Have you anything else to contribute here?

 

[austinEV]

I still think we are at a short term top here. That said, on Aug 30th TSLA officially gets added to the MSI (if I remember correctly) Global index. In addition to that, it is the end of the month so there is likely some window dressing that is going to happen here.

As a result, we may see a spike over the next two or 3 days. I expect this to be very short-lived, but I may close out some of the covered calls I wrote when we were at $172+. They are only up 25% sadly, but I'm not sure I want to hold them these few days. I may write new ones if this pop does materialize. I'll likely keep my puts so that I am still hedged against anything bad happening.

Just thinking out loud.

I think we are a few days from a short term top, but yeah it should start to retest the 20 day Friday or next week and that will be the new good buying opportunity agreed.

 

[Citizen-T]

I think we are a few days from a short term top, but yeah it should start to retest the 20 day Friday or next week and that will be the new good buying opportunity agreed.

Bought back my calls just now. ~30% gain in 48 hours, so I'll take it.

 

[TSLAopt]

I think we are a few days from a short term top, but yeah it should start to retest the 20 day Friday or next week and that will be the new good buying opportunity agreed.

interesting note is that shorts seem to have increased their positions recently or new shorts have come in as there are less shares today available to short at various brokers than there have been for several weeks at those brokers.

perhaps a new short squeeze could pop us up above 200 soon...just need a little catalyst news or perhaps if we don't crash soon the weak shorts will get jittery and start covering themselves creating their own short squeeze

 

[mitch672]

Bought back my calls just now. ~30% gain in 48 hours, so I'll take it.

I've done that once already, however I tried it again last week, and now I'm kind of caught, my covered calls are $7 higher than I sold them for. Unless it drops to <$160, they will probably stay this way.