Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Citizen-T]

I got very lucky in I got into Apple at the (for now) bottom of the dip just under $400. Trying to weigh my options now between that... up to $500, $600... $700??? and TSLA (with obviously more shares/$ invested) going up to $75, $100, $200 even???

Off topic, but I think you're trying to catch a falling knife with APPL. The reality distortion field around that company is dissipating with Jobs gone and people are starting to see it for what it really is. I'd take my profits and walk away.

 

[DJ Frustration]

Observation: 6 months ago TSLA closed at $28.13 for a 6 month gain of 98.94% with current price of $54.54 (1:41pm EDT).

 

[hershey101]

Observation: 6 months ago TSLA closed at $28.13 for a 6 month gain of 98.94% with current price of $54.54 (1:41pm EDT).

Thanks for the obversation! We need posts like this to make sure people don't over-leverage themselves and are not exposed to too much downside risk. I'm happy for the bull run, but I really think that this rally is going to fizzle after the CC. I'll probably sell by the end of the week, and buy some May puts for protection.

 

[Majerus]

sorry for my ignorance what is "cc"

"but I really think that this rally is going to fizzle after the CC"

 

[hershey101]

sorry for my ignorance what is "cc"

"but I really think that this rally is going to fizzle after the CC"

My bad, Conference Call (5/8 I think?)

 

[adiggs]

cc - conference call. quarterly earnings announcement.

 

[JRP3]

I just took some profits at 54.50, still have most of my stock though.

 

[mitch672]

I just took some profits at 54.50, still have most of my stock though.

Yeah, I did that at $46 a few weeks ago. I re-bought 1/3 of my original position with the profits last week just below $52, it's all profit invested now... TSLA is a rocket, and I think it has much much further to go.

 

[mershaw2001]

Thanks for the obversation! We need posts like this to make sure people don't over-leverage themselves and are not exposed to too much downside risk. I'm happy for the bull run, but I really think that this rally is going to fizzle after the CC. I'll probably sell by the end of the week, and buy some May puts for protection.

'
Yeah actually this is an important point. For everyone who is long here, it's important to make sure that others aren't overleveraged as well so that if we get a downward spell, no one has to sell out to a margin call. The worst case would be a slight fizzle that forces some overeager longs to sell out due to being highly leveraged, and those sell outs catalyze more selling etc. Just a word of caution to be appropriately leveraged- we all want this to go up in the long term.

 

[jeffro01]

'
Yeah actually this is an important point. For everyone who is long here, it's important to make sure that others aren't overleveraged as well so that if we get a downward spell, no one has to sell out to a margin call. The worst case would be a slight fizzle that forces some overeager longs to sell out due to being highly leveraged, and those sell outs catalyze more selling etc. Just a word of caution to be appropriately leveraged- we all want this to go up in the long term.

I got in at $52 with the intention of riding the roller coaster that is Tesla stock for the foreseeable future. Granted I wish I could have gotten in under $50 but I think that in the long term $52 is going to be a very reasonable position to start with.

Jeff

 

[Enadler]

Read this article. It was very good. The only variable that I question on his stock price model is the multiple of 40. http://seekingalpha.com/article/138...k-and-elon-musk?source=email_rt_article_title

Agreed great article however I also question the 25% GM number. Elon has said over and over he will achieve 25% margins on the MS by the end of the year. However even if you assume that he achieves it in Q4 then only about 25% of the 2013 production will be at 25% GM. In addition as you look out I would assume that you will see initial production of Model X and Gen III will also be sub 25% goal.

With that being said I agree with the overall premise and see a large upside to Tesla!

 

[DonPedro]

When discussing a $6-7-10-50 bn valuation, it does not really matter whether or not "initial production" has somewhat lower margins. The long term growth/profit potential is what drives valuation in this stock.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Indeed, and that is why I have a protective stop on TSLA, cash and other investments. Your point is one that is just as pertinent for a range trader as missing a big up move. If one buys at a presumed bottom, a further crash can be quite costly. It one sells at a presumed top, a runaway move to the upside presents the cost of a lost opportunity.

In the meantime, while TSLA is in record high territory, so is its related company SolarCity (SCTY +5%). SCTY is putting on the really big show today by pushing further into its high for both the day and all-time. Perhaps Supercharger news is forthcoming that would affect both companies.

Again, I have been busy with other projects and not keeping up with this thread as much as I should. But then again, I pretty much stopped riding herd on my TSLA investment a month ago.

As to Solar City, I think it much more has to do with this being an Elon Musk wave, as opposed to anything particularly business related.

Tesla has entered a virtuous cycle in terms of being perceived in the media and by the public as a success. They have an extremely well reviewed product, and now its being backed with sales leadership (whether measuring against plugins, or luxury competitors), and profitability for the company. With those factors now combined Tesla is starting to be perceived as a real success, and potentially at the gateway to runaway growth. In other words, the public and media is beginning to see what we see.

In addition, SpaceX is doing something similar in a completely unrelated, but highly visible industry. It's a media darling, and increasingly visible to the general population as well. It's achieved cult status all on its own and is indisputably a major success and seemingly poised for runaway growth.

The common thread is Elon Musk, and I think Solar City is benefiting from that.

 

[ShortSlaver]

The common thread is Elon Musk, and I think Solar City is benefiting from that.

Indeed. When Space X goes public I can complete my MUSK ETF.

 

[K Hall]

Both TSLA and SCTY have positive momentum. I never fight the trend just have to keep the risk manageable to the momentum turn.

 

[hershey101]

Does anyone know how frequently short interests are released and where to find the data? I know that the NASDAQ website has a monthly listing of the short interest on the stock, and last time it was updated was for 4/15, but I saw a post on one of the investor threads about someone claiming that the number should be updated in the next few days. Will there be an end of the month update?
I feel like that this entire rally up from $45-$55 has been sparked primarily by short covering, and eventually we should be hitting a block here. Considering the high amount of options activity for May 60s I think that around $59 might be a good place to sell (seems very likely we might see $59 by the end of the week), and come back and re-evaluate a good entry point.

UPDATE: Sorry, just noticed that NASDAQ reports short interest every 15 days, not 30.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Indeed. When Space X goes public I can complete my MUSK ETF.

I avoided SCTY when it went public. Mostly because it just doesn't impress me as much as Tesla or SpaceX does.

But also because by the time it went public I had already put all of my speculative chips on TSLA and I didn't want to invest the research necessary to anticipate the market. Also, the research is just much too boring to plow through or understand. Too much reliance on high falutin finance to underpin their business model and I just didn't want to have to deal with it. I understand fast cars, and building stuff, so I'll stick with TSLA.

Edit: If SpaceX goes public, I'll buy that. I "research" the company on a daily basis anyways. Nothing boring about rocketry.

 

[Citizen-T]

Great headline on the front page of Market Watch: Musk tweets glee as Tesla runs over the shorts - The Tell - MarketWatch

 

[kenliles]

I avoided SCTY when it went public. Mostly because it just doesn't impress me as much as Tesla or SpaceX does.

But also because by the time it went public I had already put all of my speculative chips on TSLA and I didn't want to invest the research necessary to anticipate the market. Also, the research is just much too boring to plow through or understand. Too much reliance on high falutin finance to underpin their business model and I just didn't want to have to deal with it. I understand fast cars, and building stuff, so I'll stick with TSLA.

Edit: If SpaceX goes public, I'll buy that. I "research" the company on a daily basis anyways. Nothing boring about rocketry.

that all sounds pretty familiar. I wanted some SCTY but by the time I got around to it, the price was at $18 or so and I had all high beta investment in TSLA. When SCTY pulled back to $16 briefly I picked up one lot of shares, and recently added a second when it tweaked back to $23. I've already notified my broker I want SpaceX shares on the IPO.

- - - Updated - - -

wow- closed at new all time high just short of $55;
color me impressed

 

[Benz]

Well on Marketwatch.com and on Google Finance I see that trading in shares of TSLA is still going on after 4 PM ET.
On Google Finance I see there just under the share price written "After Hours", What is that?