Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[HongKongFan]

You're guys are correct. I just compared TSLA stock movement with NASDAQ and they're compatible. Maybe the downward pressure on TSLA has subsided, I'm guessing $170 was the bottom and now we just tick along with NASDAQ. So as long as NASDAQ doesn't drop to 2% we should close above $170 today.

Thanks guys for pointing that out for me!

 

[Norse]

Newsflash!!! Tesla is in crisis because a car crashed, no one got killed and the stock is down eeeeh 5% at levels it was 2 years.. Ehrm weeks ago.

Imagen a Elon tweet just...now! Imagen the short interest.

 

[NigelM]

Yes obv this stock is volatile, but wtf is wrong here? This is clearly an overreaction.

A one product company that's valued (some would argue overvalued) on future potential, a jittery market (due to uncertain politics) and some irresponsible press. Quite honestly, I think TSLA is holding up pretty well under the circumstances.

The guy was driving in highway...he couldn't have hit a large object on highway. That doesn't sound probable.

I've seen suitcases, wheels, mattresses and a 16ft ladder laying on the freeway at different points in time. Everything is possible.

The accident happened Tuesday, I think by wed evening the damaged car was en route to Fremont. It should have arrived today.

Who says that Tesla has first dibs on the car? It's not theirs after all and the insurance company will want to look at it first and they may also bring in forensics, then there's possibly NHTSA inspectors (who aren't allowed to fly right now due to govt shutdown). Tesla can hopefully access some logs but it might be a while before they stand any chance of taking the car to Fremont.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

A one product company that's valued (some would argue overvalued) on future potential, a jittery market (due to uncertain politics) and some irresponsible press. Quite honestly, I think TSLA is holding up pretty well under the circumstances.




I've seen suitcases, wheels, mattresses and a 16ft ladder laying on the freeway at different points in time. Everything is possible.



Who says that Tesla has first dibs on the car? It's not theirs after all and the insurance company will want to look at it first and they may also bring in forensics, then there's possibly NHTSA inspectors (who aren't allowed to fly right now due to govt shutdown). Tesla can hopefully access some logs but it might be a while before they stand any chance of taking the car to Fremont.

Actually, when I was in Boise, ID in August, I had to evade a really big sleeping bag plus lots of other stuff lying in the middle of a highway. I barely made it going 75mph.. that was "fun". I agree.. so be prepared for anything at anytime .

 

[farzyness]

CNBC is about to interview a firefighter that was on site at the Tesla fire. I'll keep you guys posted.

 

[Norbert]

I've seen suitcases, wheels, mattresses and a 16ft ladder laying on the freeway at different points in time. Everything is possible.

Once I had a big living room chair fall off a pick up truck something like 200 ft in front of me. Had to change lanes, as far as I remember.

 

[kevin99]

At $170, TSLA seems to form a support level in the short term.

With TSLA or any other volatile stock, the stock will exceed my imagination in half of the times. However if I try to time the absolute top and bottom to the 1% accuracy, then I would miss the other half of the times which could be even better opportunity given a few days or weeks.

When this kind of movement happens, a lot of people are fixated to get that absolute price. Well unless you put in a limit order and stand there to execute it, i.e., as the price approaching your target, you don't move away so it won't filled, half of times you end up chasing it back once it start the rebound and filled at a higher price.

Yes a lot of unknown and all very subjective call. So place the right size of trades accordingly.

 

[tslafan123]

Consumer Reports wieghs in:

Tesla, 'safer than most' despite fire

Tesla, despite fire: Expert - CNBC

 

[Convert2013]

A one product company that's valued (some would argue overvalued) on future potential, a jittery market (due to uncertain politics) and some irresponsible press. Quite honestly, I think TSLA is holding up pretty well under the circumstances.



Who says that Tesla has first dibs on the car? It's not theirs after all and the insurance company will want to look at it first and they may also bring in forensics, then there's possibly NHTSA inspectors (who aren't allowed to fly right now due to govt shutdown). Tesla can hopefully access some logs but it might be a while before they stand any chance of taking the car to Fremont.

+ 100 on all of the above

 

[Norse]

CNBC is about to interview a firefighter that was on site at the Tesla fire. I'll keep you guys posted.

Anything??

 

[Cameron]

Newsflash!!! Tesla is in crisis because a car crashed, no one got killed and the stock is down eeeeh 5% at levels it was 2 years.. Ehrm weeks ago.

Imagen a Elon tweet just...now! Imagen the short interest.

This post made my day :smile:

Everyone is blowing this wayyy out of proportion. Things can only get better from here!

 

[Jeeps17]

Selling opportunity for puts
Buying opportunity for calls and stock

Those that were looking for a dip to make a move on, hope you had your liquidity ready.

+1.

Put an order for stock at $169, which got executed.

My previous purchase was at $85 (following $55 and $34). I was annoyed I had missed $164, now we'll see how the ball rolls.

 

[farzyness]

Anything??

Nothing yet from the firefighter. They did a quick recap of the story. However they iterated that no one was hurt and that tesla has the car in its possession.

 

[Snoopie]

I am a very strong tesla long. I sold last week at the top of the channel, it just seemed too vulnerable to me. I have bought back in at 181 yesterday (missed the bottom), 170.3 and 168.35 today. My next buy points are 164.35 and 160.35 after that ???? Hope we don't get there, it seems very ugly to me! Also have a buy point at 174.75 for when we are back in the channel and near the 20 day. This being below the channel and the 20 day kinda makes my crystal ball opaque.

 

[sleepyhead]

Sleepyhead noted buying calls right now is expensive due to the implied volatility. How long does it take for IV to settle down after something like this (assuming the stock trades relatively flat at some point here soon...)? We talking a couple days or weeks?

This is true. E.g. if you buy calls now with TSLA at $170, you might have to pay high IV. Then if TSLA settles down and trades in a range around $175 for two weeks, you will probably be able to buy those same options for less. The risk is that there is a sharp reversal and TSLA blows past $180 and you missed the last great buying opportunity.

At the same time TSLA can go to $150 - $160 and consolidat there for weeks and your options will end up plummeting in value.

Good time to buy stock. Probably a good time to buy options, but I am skeptical because of the severity of the news that came out. This fire is a big deal for many reasons and the stock price is a big unknown right now. Too much risk for me.

What does sleepy have to say , or rather, what next are you making.

If I had capital, I would definitely be buying calls right now, but I like taking risks. This will probably turn out to be a great buying opportunity, I bought a couple of calls but will wait till next week. I will have more capital next week to invest and I will wait for the dust to settle, IV to come down a bit, and for TSLA to establish a trading range. Great time to buy LEAPS though if that is what you are looking at.

I would rather put my capital in solar stocks right now and that is my main focus. I sold my TSLA puts today and quickly moved all of that money into solar calls.

Will be buying TSLA calls, but have to wait and see what happens first.

 

[kevin99]

At $170, TSLA seems to form a support level in the short term.

With TSLA or any other volatile stock, the stock will exceed my imagination in half of the times. However if I try to time the absolute top and bottom to the 1% accuracy, then I would miss the other half of the times which could be even better opportunity given a few days or weeks.

When this kind of movement happens, a lot of people are fixated to get that absolute price. Well unless you put in a limit order and stand there to execute it, i.e., as the price approaching your target, you don't move away so it won't filled, half of times you end up chasing it back once it start the rebound and filled at a higher price.

Yes a lot of unknown and all very subjective call. So place the right size of trades accordingly.

I like the way it race to $173. Then consolidate a bit, and seems resuming the uplift.

- - - Updated - - -


San Jose mercury news just called me. I give them my take, basically my posts in this one and the Fire thread.

 

[hershey101]

Some more news:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/10/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-shares-still-falling/

- - - Updated - - -

Is that it, are we on the path to recovery?

 

[Lessmog]

more bad news
http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn...&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20131003:nPnNY91628

from several minutes and pages ago ;-)

OK, so a firetruck chaser this time - well, at least that's a variation of the tired old ambulance niche.

Isn't the 'fact', as reported somewhere, that the firefighters first tried to put it out with water before they changed to chemical a pretty solid further indication of inherent safety in Tesla battery packs? Provided true, of course. You don't want to pour water on 400 Volts, normally.

But I still think Tesla and/or Musk should issue a brief statement. Obviously they do not have full facts, but then say so! And declare that you intend to find them and take any responsible action deemed prudent as soon as you do have them. Own the news. Act, not react.

MHO

 

[Citizen-T]

This stock wants to get back in its channel. If we close in the channel, the trend will be unbroken (amazingly). On the daily chart, it'll look like it just kissed the bottom bar and powered higher. I will buy hand over fist if this happens.

 

[kevin99]

I like the way it race to $173. Then consolidate a bit, and seems resuming the uplift.

Normally it will take more time to heal. However with TSLA, the strong possibility is a quick recovery.

I am leaning on the side that we have seen the worst from to the fire incident.

Already back to $175! That is the TSLA I am familiar with!