Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[sleepyhead]

They'd have to finish fairly well ITM though to be more profitable than a lower call value though, right? If it just squeaks over to 215 or some such, you probably didn't get enough leverage off of the small premium to overcome the high target.

In my strategy my $215s can make a lot more than ATM options. I have different strategies and that is why I don't like discussing what exactly I buy. I could cash out with a huge gain and someone else might lose money if they bought the same option I did.

I will gladly talk after the fact to show what I did for academic purposes, whether it works or it doesn't.

 

[Robert.Boston]

The recent volatility in the broader market made me wonder, has anyone tried to estimate TSLA's beta? My guess is that it's over 1.0. Over the past few days, what fraction of the TSLA movement is simply tracking the market, and what's the idiosyncratic piece?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

That looks like an older list released from IB a few days ago. The second list was just released today and contains 39 new stocks (including familiar retail stocks like NFLX and FB):

http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/2113

Maybe other brokers linked to IB haven't processed the second list yet.

Had a chat with my broker further and they claim that this should only affect stock itself. Not options. So one shouldn't get a margin call on the options. However they told me to keep my eyes open at market open (this will not be in effect before market opens) and to call them if I do get a margin call as they promised to balance my position out and return the options or look for other ways to make sure I don't get called on this.

 

[Citizen-T]

News is circulating. I hope it moves the stock today.

Vehicle ID Numbers Provided By Tesla Customers Suggest Tesla Motors Has Assigned VINs To At Least 13,000 Model S Sedans It Hasn’t Previously Announced As Sold

 

[sp4rk]

News is circulating. I hope it moves the stock today.

Vehicle ID Numbers Provided By Tesla Customers Suggest Tesla Motors Has Assigned VINs To At Least 13,000 Model S Sedans It Hasn’t Previously Announced As Sold

Love the rampant speculation. One poster updates with a VIN and the press takes it as gospel. Plus the web page will not load without the OBNOXIOUS video that you cannot get rid of.

 

[maekuz]

News is circulating. I hope it moves the stock today.

Vehicle ID Numbers Provided By Tesla Customers Suggest Tesla Motors Has Assigned VINs To At Least 13,000 Model S Sedans It Hasn’t Previously Announced As Sold

Not good. The article might move the whisper number for Q3 to unreachable highs. And it is my perception that thare are no "European VINs". A rather misleading article.

 

[Citizen-T]

Not good. The article might move the whisper number for Q3 to unreachable highs. And it is my perception that thare are no "European VINs". A rather misleading article.

Yeah, I had that same concern. Got to keep our eyes on the analysts.

 

[AlMc]

Craig's own 'suggestion' based on his VIN collection/graphing of production estimates puts number at mid 5000 to mid 6000 deliveries. The 'cat is out of the bag'. I agree that these numbers are known/will be known by analysts before Q3 ER.

Personally, I believe the number to be 6,500.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well our advantage is that we've known those numbers for weeks now This means that on all the dips we've all hopefully positioned ourselves to the Q3 numbers and if the cat's out of the bag, then the stock should catch up to the new numbers pre-earnings. If it does (i.e. runs past $200 pre-Q3), then we can hedge nicely

 

[aznt1217]

Craig's own 'suggestion' based on his VIN collection/graphing of production estimates puts number at mid 5000 to mid 6000 deliveries. The 'cat is out of the bag'. I agree that these numbers are known/will be known by analysts before Q3 ER.

Personally, I believe the number to be 6,500.

Doubtful that the cat is out of the bag. Analysts know enough that these are just personal estimates and aren't willing to put client money on person on the internet posting up guesses (no matter how good they are). Elaine Kwei pegged it at like 5250 or something like that.

 

[AlMc]

Doubtful. Analysts know enough that these are just personal estimates and aren't willing to put client money on person on the internet posting up guesses (no matter how good they are). Elaine Kwei pegged it at like 5250 or something like that.

I hope you are correct. :wink:

 

[sleepyhead]

The recent volatility in the broader market made me wonder, has anyone tried to estimate TSLA's beta? My guess is that it's over 1.0. Over the past few days, what fraction of the TSLA movement is simply tracking the market, and what's the idiosyncratic piece?

There are many different ways to calculate Beta. You can use 1 year of daily returns, 2 years of weekly returns, etc. There is basically an infinite amount of ways to calculate Beta.

That said, I have read an article about a month ago that said that TSLA is actually a low beta stock and had a beta of 0.58. I can believe this, because the stock has a mind of its own and goes up when the market is down and vice versa.

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Doubtful that the cat is out of the bag. Analysts know enough that these are just personal estimates and aren't willing to put client money on person on the internet posting up guesses (no matter how good they are). Elaine Kwei pegged it at like 5250 or something like that.

Yeah, the market doesn't know squat and that is why TSLA is still so cheap today.

Just look at the DB report, where the analyst put a $200 PT and said that deliveries in Q3 will mirror Q2 and he expects Tesla to ramp up to 600 vehicles produced per week some time in Q4...

Seriously?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Sure am happy I got out of those weekly $175's with marginal profit instead of probably taking a total loss today. Unless there's a positive news story that sparks a rally in which case my generic long position should benefit

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Oh and didn't get the margin call so very likely my broker was right and the IB margin updates only impacted stock related margin and not options as mine remained the same as last night.

 

[sleepyhead]

Sure am happy I got out of those weekly $175's with marginal profit instead of probably taking a total loss today. Unless there's a positive news story that sparks a rally in which case my generic long position should benefit

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Oh and didn't get the margin call so very likely my broker was right and the IB margin updates only impacted stock related margin and not options as mine remained the same as last night.

How do you trade options on margin? I only trade options with cash, no margin allowed (and it is better that way).

 

[aznt1217]

I think all the TSLA guys went to SCTY today.

 

[sleepyhead]

SCTY was an easy buy in pre market hours today. I would have bought some, but I am loaded up 100% so no cash left. I know at least one person got in on SCTY pre-market in the other thread. Easy money.

 

[aznt1217]

SCTY was an easy buy in pre market hours today. I would have bought some, but I am loaded up 100% so no cash left. I know at least one person got in on SCTY pre-market in the other thread. Easy money.

Only if he books profits. What I think is interesting related to TSLA short term is... how many of those deployments were due to Model S customers. Whenever SCTY does well I think TSLA is going to as well given that they make the battery packs for them too.

 

[Lump]

Profits from TSLA were used to buy SCTY this morning & added to positions in EOG, KOG & PXD earlier in the week...(a sector most around here probably dislike).

 

[Mario Kadastik]

How do you trade options on margin? I only trade options with cash, no margin allowed (and it is better that way).

Well the maintenance margin that has to be covered by assets is for any position that I short on. So as I have sold Dec $195 puts (x3) then my maintenance margin is $20k which goes up with TSLA dropping and down with TSLA going up. If it were to exceed my net liquidation I'd get a margin call. So I'd say it's trading on margin. I don't know what "level" I have because I think the Estonian regs and US regs are a bit different how they're given (I still have to have at least $25k to day-trade etc) so I'm assuming that any LHV client who qualifies for Trader account gets maximum access including full margin etc.

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Oh and today is a good day, CSIQ is up, SCTY is up a lot and TSLA is mostly green So I'm again in the green with my portfolio even with the paper loss of ~8% on the 3x $195 puts. Good day so far contemplating hedging somewhat my SCTY position, but not quite sure if I should I guess I'll hedge half to risk free and ride with the other half...

 

[Chickenlittle]

How do you trade options on margin? I only trade options with cash, no margin allowed (and it is better that way).

i couldnt agree more. borrowing to invest on margin is, in my opinion a dangerous risky issue. if you dont need the money why are you borrowing to buy options? think about those in same position in 2008. not claiming thats going to happen soon but catastrophic events do occur (terrorist attacks, wars, natural disasters etc) could wipe you out i use options and stocks but options on margins.....i avoid