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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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#10,401
sleepyhead said:
Just wanted to put on record that I loaded up 100% on solar and TSLA today and I am all in. I even threw the kitchen sink at it. If the politicians screw this one up, then I am screwed.

Like I said I have faith in our politicians and they have to do what is right for the people. They can't continue hurting our economy long-term with the games they are playing.

Good luck everyone.
Click to expand...

I did the same thing but with common stock. Sleepy, do you mind sharing one of the medium-term calls you bought? I'm considering doing same for CSIQ or TSLA, or both.

Cheers my friend.
 
#10,403
I'm already fairly heavily vested in Nov calls. Granted, they're underwater right now, but selling them and rebuying won't really help. What little I had left I was going to gamble on a short term option the week before earnings figuring I'd buy a few lottery tickets to go with my regular Nov options :)
 
#10,404
FluxCap said:
I did the same thing but with common stock. Sleepy, do you mind sharing one of the medium-term calls you bought? I'm considering doing same for CSIQ or TSLA, or both.

Cheers my friend.
Click to expand...

A lot of deep OTM Mar and APR calls on csiq, jaso, tsla, sol, and jks. I have a strategy in mind though and that is why I bought stuff such as CSIQ Apr14 $36, even though the stock probably won't get that high. So I wouldn't recommend buying these deep OTM calls unless you have a very good knowledge of options and a strategy.

ATM options are always the safest bets.
 
#10,405
sleepyhead said:
A lot of deep OTM Mar and APR calls on csiq, jaso, tsla, sol, and jks. I have a strategy in mind though and that is why I bought stuff such as CSIQ Apr14 $36, even though the stock probably won't get that high. So I wouldn't recommend buying these deep OTM calls unless you have a very good knowledge of options and a strategy.

ATM options are always the safest bets.
Click to expand...
No November q3 earnings tesla calls?
 
#10,406
sleepyhead said:
A lot of deep OTM Mar and APR calls on csiq, jaso, tsla, sol, and jks. I have a strategy in mind though and that is why I bought stuff such as CSIQ Apr14 $36, even though the stock probably won't get that high. So I wouldn't recommend buying these deep OTM calls unless you have a very good knowledge of options and a strategy.

ATM options are always the safest bets.
Click to expand...

Thanks, bossman. I'm buying calls around Q3 earnings only for now, and won't be dipping into the Sleepyhead Master Plan for World Domination(tm) on 2014 calls quite yet, as you advise. I appreciate everything you do for us here, good sir.

I'm also a partial adviser for management of a fund much larger than my personal one, and have advised them to purchase CSIQ as well. Not a massive institutional investor, but at least a nice solid few buy orders will be coming CSIQ's way soon.

Cheers again.
 
#10,408
Dead Cat Bounce... I dont think we'll actually reverse (back up) until the low to mid 160s, given todays relative weekness, nothing political going to be resolved til the 17th, and my shot-in-the-dark chart.

qNCDbxpz.png
 
#10,409
I don't like how the market is rallying and TSLA is crawling back up, never a good sign.
I'm not sure technical analysis applies so much when we are going through the debt ceiling problem though
My personal thought is that Obama will accept the offer to extend ceiling for another 6 weeks ( why wouldn't he? ) then they can sit and discuss restarting the government next week. If I am right and he accepts the house will meet tomorrow and pass the bill ( more good news for markets ) and next week senate and the white house can wrap it up, ( more good news for markets ). Maybe I am being too bullish?
 
#10,410
arashlzy said:
I don't like how the market is rallying and TSLA is crawling back up, never a good sign.
I'm not sure technical analysis applies so much when we are going through the debt ceiling problem though
My personal thought is that Obama will accept the offer to extend ceiling for another 6 weeks ( why wouldn't he? ) then they can sit and discuss restarting the government next week. If I am right and he accepts the house will meet tomorrow and pass the bill ( more good news for markets ) and next week senate and the white house can wrap it up, ( more good news for markets ). Maybe I am being too bullish?
Click to expand...

That is my theory too, but it is a coin flip. Do you like to gamble?

I bought in, because sometime you just have to go for the brass ring.

You can do all of the research you want and you still won't know if it is a good time to buy, you are at the mercy of the government. That is why it is a good idea to sit out and wait for a resolution. You might miss out on the first 2% but there will be a bigger rally to come.

I don't like missing out on 2% though.
 
#10,411
arashlzy said:
I don't like how the market is rallying and TSLA is crawling back up, never a good sign.
I'm not sure technical analysis applies so much when we are going through the debt ceiling problem though
My personal thought is that Obama will accept the offer to extend ceiling for another 6 weeks ( why wouldn't he? ) then they can sit and discuss restarting the government next week. If I am right and he accepts the house will meet tomorrow and pass the bill ( more good news for markets ) and next week senate and the white house can wrap it up, ( more good news for markets ). Maybe I am being too bullish?
Click to expand...

You're way too optimistic. No one has seen the specifics of the GOP's offer yet; it is likely garbage. I see 0% chance that the white house will accept the first deal as is. This is just the beginning of the debt ceiling debate. Hedge yourself, sit back, and enjoy the circus.

Doesn't anyone remember 2011?
 
#10,412
Just got the following message from IB. Not a good sign, because it leads people (like me...fighting margin requirements the whole day) to decrease some positions...
NOTICE OF MARGIN INCREASE #2

In light of the substantial and rapid price increases which certain securities have experienced of late, IB will be implementing a series of margin changes that will act to increase the amount of collateral required to establish a new position as well as maintain an existing position, the effect of which will also serve to limit the collateral value of such positions for the purpose of financing other trading activities.

These changes, which for a handful of securities have been previously announced and implementation begun, are intended to recognize the possibility that prices revert, at both extent and pace, in a manner similar to that noted above. Accordingly, effective with the October 11, 2013 opening of the U.S. markets, the maintenance margin requirement on the group of 39 stocks listed in KB2113 which are not already at or above 35% will be increased to this level.

Further note that we review margin levels on a continuous basis and you should anticipate the announcement of additional changes to the margin requirements of these as well as other securities over the upcoming days. We recommend that you consider the impact of these changes when making your portfolio management and account funding decisions.

Interactive Brokers Customer Service
 
#10,413
Heh, I decided to go more bullish now that even sleepy decided to join the game and closed down my hedge positions netting me a nice profit from their drops so far. The moment I did TSLA rallied $1.2 ;) So if things keep going positive I've now got far stronger delta to TSLA that might work out very well allowing me to re-hedge before earnings to far more profit :) Now long Nov 190s and Dec 180s and March 200s :)
 
#10,417
Mario Kadastik said:
I wonder if those margin requirements go into effect also for those clients that use IB, but through some other bank (like me) because I've not received any such notice...
Click to expand...
Probably not. Your bank probably only uses the system of IB, but bears the risk themselves. So your bank can decide how much risk they take. If they keep a 15% margin req. minimum for TSLA and tesla falls 20% overnight, then your bank is the one having problem, not IB.
But this whole thing is a very bad sign to the market IMO. It shows that IB sees the possibility that TSLA (and 34 other stocks) could fall by more than 15% "overnight". And what's worse, TSLA was among only three stocks for which they increased the margin requirement yesterday.
 
#10,419
SuryaDham said:
Just got the following message from IB. Not a good sign, because it leads people (like me...fighting margin requirements the whole day) to decrease some positions...
NOTICE OF MARGIN INCREASE #2

In light of the substantial and rapid price increases which certain securities have experienced of late, IB will be Accordingly, effective with the October 11, 2013 opening of the U.S. markets, the maintenance margin requirement on the group of 39 stocks listed in KB2113 which are not already at or above 35% will be increased to this level.

Correct link here: http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/2113
Click to expand...

Note that CSIQ and SCTY are also on the IB list in addition to TSLA, these two stocks were discussed frequently on this forum iirc.

People should never use margins to full extent, IB and other brokers can raise requirements quickly (this also happened in the 2008 crisis for even more stocks, even large "blue chip" and dividend stocks deemed very safe a few months earlier).

The long upcycle party since March 2009 in US stock markets may be near its end soon imho.
 
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