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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Uh oh. I'm a strong long but that almost makes me want to sell, sell, sell.
Me too dude me too, but I think he's just trying to get viewership by saying that he gets shorts to watch his show.
ShortSlaver
Member
The market has ben cautious but still posted really impressive gains for October. Cautious is good. I think everyone is so concerned with bubbles and big crashes that the market isn't getting too carried away with itself. Plus we're in this whole QE experiment and nobody really knows if it will end up well. They said the economy isn't good enough to taper yesterday and indexes fell. Then today Chicago PMI was well beyond expectations making the indexes fall due to fears QE might get tapered. The market is just uncertain but optimistic right now. It's quite healthy in my opinion.
You're right, Q4 is often generous - we'll see what happens. Just that lately options have been a bad play. Call writers have ben winning. Not saying that is indicative of future behavior - just that a lot of the big pops have priced in great earning reports so big beats aren't a shock and traders are keeping their cool.
However, TSLA has been pretty bearish the last month or so and some better than expected news could help it. I'm a bit skeptical, but will have a small position regardless. If we see a big dip tomorrow will get a larger position. I'm just staying out of options on this one - however, I might change my mind in a day or 2.
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I can say I'm a validation of your case here - essentially what I was thinking.
I agree I think many are waiting on the side for many reasons. I think they are justified, one can't help but second guess their sanity when the whole world is saying the opposite. I've been doing that quite a bit.
I just think it's interesting that so many people are bringing up lack of demand as an issue again and pair it up with supply constraints. Whenever I see these being brought up it makes me comfortable again. For me, the Panasonic announcement really allayed my concerns about these points people were bringing up.
My real concern is the gross margin progress and delivery reaction. October was the only month in the year Tesla ended in the red. For me, this is because of people who want in but are claiming it's too expensive. What will matter is guidance and if we see production progress. If we see these two things and sales in the 5500 mark (perhaps even a little less) I think we will resume.
I also think we will be seeing word of potential takeovers or increased OEM deals as per Daimler.
I just think it's interesting that so many people are bringing up lack of demand as an issue again and pair it up with supply constraints. Whenever I see these being brought up it makes me comfortable again. For me, the Panasonic announcement really allayed my concerns about these points people were bringing up.
My real concern is the gross margin progress and delivery reaction. October was the only month in the year Tesla ended in the red. For me, this is because of people who want in but are claiming it's too expensive. What will matter is guidance and if we see production progress. If we see these two things and sales in the 5500 mark (perhaps even a little less) I think we will resume.
I also think we will be seeing word of potential takeovers or increased OEM deals as per Daimler.
ShortSlaver
Member
Emotion is such a big part of it. Given enough times bears have ben able to take control which isn't especially hard when a stock rises so fast. At some point enough people will take their profits and move on to the next easy score.
My only concern is I think it's expected they blow out again and at the current valuation they need to in order to not collapse. They need something else that makes people think bigger. It's a problem with a lot of high flyers this year - they've crushed ER a few times this year and Wall St has gotten wise to sandbagging and has already priced another killer quarter in quickly. Meaning that just a killer quarter isn't enough.
Google popped and kept it because they killed the quarter and also spoke about new mediums such as taking TV advertising revenue in addition to the various hardware bets they're making in the coming year. Apple kills it but does nothing (they have risen from 385 to 525 in 4 months - no small feat and I'm happy to have been a part of it) because everyone knew they would kill it but there is nothing left to the imagination right now. Once Apple announces a new piece of hardware - if they do - they will rocket again, for instance.
FB and NFLX killed it but they didn't have anything let to dream about. NFLX popped all year because of thoughts of being bigger than HBO and that's all been priced in. FB has more priced in than anyone could imagine. Amazon keeps their stock scam going because there's hardware, new products to sell and the eventual takeover of Wallmart's lunch, etc even though Amazon can't make a buck.
Tesla needs to inspire and have more than good numbers. Wall St and their mom's know what their numbers could and will likely be. That's expected and priced in. The question is what can be next? IT's so much so fast and perhaps this stock just plays a 140-190 range until they either don't meet expectations and crash (first miss this stock crumbles) or they create something new that will inspire. At the very least the Model X becomes a reality and the stock can get to 350. But that will take time. I guess I'm saying the quick money might be done here.
Duly noted. In your mind, what has changed since we flew to the 190's? We held those levels for quite a long time. That's what has me scratching my head. I haven't seen anything to really whip saw us back down except for the fact that Q3 earnings bets are being placed because people think demand is tapering and Tesla is having quality issues due to batteries and what not.
As a heads up, I mentioned this in another thread, but whisper numbers are $0.19...
Earnings Whispers : Earnings Whisper Number for TSLA
Earnings Whispers : Earnings Whisper Number for TSLA
I have used it before, and it has been relatively good... Its much better for certain companies than others, never checked TSLA before because I wasn't worried about a TSLA beat before today.
ShortSlaver
Member
Profit taking from momentum traders who have moved on. The first sign of weakness starts a cascading effect in these things. I mean also the stock is really highly valued so a lot of people are going to call a top and take profits as well as begin shorting something that isn't moving up every day. Nothing goes straight up.
So, profit taking and loss of momentum, shorting and a bit of meh news as well as the government shutdown hurting fragile stocks.
Also, keep in mind last July we saw 2 or 3 day dips from 115 to 88 (nearly 25%!). 195 to 150 is about the same. I think we had a 130 to 100 dip at one point that quickly recovered? I lose track!
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Earning Whispers are what people actually expect it to be - not insider info on what it will be. Essentially it's saying sentiment won't be positive if that number isn't hit generally.
Exactly... So beating $.11 won't be enough, we have to beat $0.19 (and buy a lot)... My model says $0.17 so...
Yea I think the Tesla mania has tapered off on the street due to the wave of major earnings... let's be real the past two weeks have been crazy for the market. I don't think analysts at this point know what to expect. It's funny I wasn't sure of a Tesla beat in Q2 and took some profits off the table. I'm not sure of a beat either, but I'm pretty sure guidance will be good (which I think matters more)
Definitely will be losing some sleep though this weekend haha
Definitely will be losing some sleep though this weekend haha
Thumper
Active Member
InTheShadows
Active Member
That's because I have this pain in my neck called nov 200's that I don't know what to do with. At this point I think I will keep them and on ER day sell half for whatever I can get for them. Then let the rest ride.
At this point you should. I allocated what I thought I would be willing to lose. Definitely wish I waited but this was an expensive (that was learned). Keep them on ER. In the event of a ridiculous blow out or people just waking up you may see them go up substantially and at the very least make your money back.
I also think it's quiet because... well it's iPad Air day gotta get on line to get one haha
Seems like the stock wants to stabilize around $160 and behavior appears similar to pre-Q1 days like some people have mentioned. Including today, we now have 3 trading days left before ER. I think if the Nasdaq was up a bit we would see Tesla closer to $165 today..I see a whole lot more news threads about Tesla today , one nice one about "Most popular car choice in wealthiest zips"...
BTW... it's really interesting to read articles and comments about NFLX and the amazing parallels (to TSLA) between the bulls and the bears.. bears calling for NFX to be $56 to $65 range and bulls for $420. Same type of swipes and exchanges between the longs and shorts on the comment sections of articles. So that said, if NFLX is still trading where it is even after its CEO's comments, ER, and stormy October, I am optimistic TSLA will stabilize at these levels and then begin to climb in November and December.
BTW... it's really interesting to read articles and comments about NFLX and the amazing parallels (to TSLA) between the bulls and the bears.. bears calling for NFX to be $56 to $65 range and bulls for $420. Same type of swipes and exchanges between the longs and shorts on the comment sections of articles. So that said, if NFLX is still trading where it is even after its CEO's comments, ER, and stormy October, I am optimistic TSLA will stabilize at these levels and then begin to climb in November and December.
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I'm optimistic about next week, but I have to admit it's a nervous moment checking the stock price first thing in the morning typically 30 minute or so after the market has opened for me (California). Was nice to see green for the first time in a while to start the day.
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