-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
Also profitable excluding ZEV credits. Are those going to rebound next year at all? Or are they pretty much gone?
I think they will remain a part of Tesla's revenue for some time, but Tesla is guiding for them to go to 0 just to be safe. There are some indications that other states might do a similar scheme, since 8 of them just adopted some of CA's EV standards (though not the ZEV credits yet, I think?)
Precisely. People were expecting Tesla to significantly beat analysts expectations. I'm viewing this as a great buying opportunity. After hours volume weak. I think Tesla will find support at the prior support (around $153?). The only thing missing from this conference call was guidance for 60,000 - 60,000 Model S for 2014. I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in late November/ Early December, around the time that Tesla announces the Model X is sold out for 2014.
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
I'm not at all surprised what's happening with the stock. It was priced to have a 'significantly beat expectations' like from the dot com days. Now they're realizing that such fast growth isn't possible when manufacturing extremely complicated large pieces of hardware. I think in a couple of years the stock will me much higher but it will take awhile to launch new production lines.
No way they'll guide for that. They'll guide for 30-35 and they'll deliver 35-40.
Elon basically said the 2 billion battery cell commitment from Panasonic was a lower bar, and that additional production could be needed from other manufacturers. He addressed the comment about the order and I think basically said it could be greater than the figure you get by dividing 2 billion by the number of Cels in a Model S battery pack.
Tesla Model S, Model X and Gen 3: 2 Billion Lithium-Ion Battery Cells Deployment Graph
I don't think he would guide for 60,000 Model S in 2014, but he kind of did just that by saying there is demand for about 20,000 Model S annually in North America alone. Elon has mentioned on numerous occasions that he expects demand will be about equal in North America, Asia, and Europe. A few weeks ago Elon said that there was demand in Germany for approximately 10,000 Model S. Doesn't this almost confirm that Tesla expects to sell more than 20,000 Model S in Europe every year?
Last edited:
Elon mentioned 40k cars for 2014. It was mentioned while he was in Europe. I don't recall if it was at one of the events or during an interview.
I bet he didn't want to put the number in ink because it isn't clear exactly when the supply issues will be up to speed.
So regarding tomorrow, anyone dare to predict where we have a strong bottom or how low it can drop in a worst case scenario factoring in this ER? Anyone think it can drop below 120 let`s say? I am still holding my stock no matter how low it drops because after all said and done Tesla is still growing and moving forward and I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla will indeed revolutionize the auto industry. However, as we all well know on this forum, a big portion of the market does not understand Tesla and might use this negative momentum to further drive down the stock. That is why I am wondering if there is some solid foundation to how low it can drop.
Anyhow.... in some years we will all look back at this time smiling and wishing we would have bought more....
And even if the after-hours market expectations is not what we hoped for and the QE3 ER was not as blowout as we had hoped/expected, I want to take the opportunity to thank everyone on this forum for their tireless and brotherly devotion to the "Tesla Motors Family Club" :smile:
I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla and everyone of us will end up being winners in the long run.
Anyhow.... in some years we will all look back at this time smiling and wishing we would have bought more....
And even if the after-hours market expectations is not what we hoped for and the QE3 ER was not as blowout as we had hoped/expected, I want to take the opportunity to thank everyone on this forum for their tireless and brotherly devotion to the "Tesla Motors Family Club" :smile:
I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla and everyone of us will end up being winners in the long run.
Last edited:
I will wager a guess and be a contrarian from what most people might think to say the stock opens down in the low 150s and climbs to 160ish as value investors start seeing opportunities here based on the long term outlook for Tesla Motors.
Unless I misheard (and I missed a few minutes at the half-hour) Elon specifically stated that Eu and Asia would comprise about 60% of deliveries (or was it production? demand?) in 2014. So, if 20,000 NA is on the mark that means a total of 50,000.
Now, demand, production and deliveries are not identical, as we know. Still interesting, I think?
Oh, and he said 1.8 B cells over four years, right? Divided by 7,104 for 85kWh pack makes 253,000 cars and change, or 80,000+ per annum linearly. Plus additional sourcing.
I have quite a bit of stock, and as I plan to hold it long, I'll be happily buying up some more tomorrow morning!
I really feel for the kind folks here who have lost money on their options, but fir once, I am glad to be long.For goodness [***] sake. Elon!
Cash flow positive growth that is MUCH faster than auto industry norms.
Targeting 0.5 Million units for combined Gen III, S, X.
Demand increasing in North America (US demand peaked: no).
China demand is off the charts - order now or the queue will grow.
Europe demand 20K units.
RHD cars getting ready for UK, ZA, JP etc.
Tesla / Mercedes Model B - most compelling 2014 affordable electric car (True).
Tesla owns significant proportion of battery IP.
Model X + S 100,000 units in 2015 (another 100% compound growth jump).
Tesla knows how to hit 100,000 units of $100,000 vehicles without a massive capex hit - so long as they have the cells, customers will get the cars.
Panasonic able to maintain supply through 2014 and 3x contract supply rate should be considered a floor and not a ceiling. Panasonic "main partner" not only partner.
Supply constraints to be substantially alleviated in 2014.
Gen III design to be readied in 2014 - photo shoot much!
Battery breakthrough for Gen III identified and ready in 2.5 years time - range extension / price breakthrough on the cards for MS and MX.
CFO: The main purpose of this call is to tell folk we are growing at a crazy pace and adding money to the bank account at the same time! Indeed. That was the main point. Was it really necessary to interrupt Musk whining about far distant battery supply constraints that he plans to solve anyway for the making of 500,000 cars to get the main Q3 2013 point across?
This was the worst telling of the best story I have ever heard.
Cash flow positive growth that is MUCH faster than auto industry norms.
Targeting 0.5 Million units for combined Gen III, S, X.
Demand increasing in North America (US demand peaked: no).
China demand is off the charts - order now or the queue will grow.
Europe demand 20K units.
RHD cars getting ready for UK, ZA, JP etc.
Tesla / Mercedes Model B - most compelling 2014 affordable electric car (True).
Tesla owns significant proportion of battery IP.
Model X + S 100,000 units in 2015 (another 100% compound growth jump).
Tesla knows how to hit 100,000 units of $100,000 vehicles without a massive capex hit - so long as they have the cells, customers will get the cars.
Panasonic able to maintain supply through 2014 and 3x contract supply rate should be considered a floor and not a ceiling. Panasonic "main partner" not only partner.
Supply constraints to be substantially alleviated in 2014.
Gen III design to be readied in 2014 - photo shoot much!
Battery breakthrough for Gen III identified and ready in 2.5 years time - range extension / price breakthrough on the cards for MS and MX.
CFO: The main purpose of this call is to tell folk we are growing at a crazy pace and adding money to the bank account at the same time! Indeed. That was the main point. Was it really necessary to interrupt Musk whining about far distant battery supply constraints that he plans to solve anyway for the making of 500,000 cars to get the main Q3 2013 point across?
This was the worst telling of the best story I have ever heard.
Last edited by a moderator:
You nailed it Julian. Let us just pray that, at least, a part of the market can realize this the following days.
Last edited by a moderator:
Now analysts are armed with official data to write up new/revised price targets. Hope that happens this week.
I'm glad I wasn't the only one who noticed this! Someone commented here how it was already down 14pts, and I got really confused because I didn't see the letter anywhere. Even if some sources got it quicker then most of us here, I can't imagine they legitimately looked through it all and came to a fair conclusion that soon. CNBC quick jumped on this fact it was down and they already had a guy saying how 2014 will be a horrible year for Tesla, by the time I was finally getting to read it. I mean regardless they didn't have a blowout earnings like many were hoping, but I still got a sense there were some powerfully groups working against us.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll
