Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[MoshMusic]

For goodness [***] sake. Elon!

Cash flow positive growth that is MUCH faster than auto industry norms.

Targeting 0.5 Million units for combined Gen III, S, X.

Demand increasing in North America (US demand peaked: no).

China demand is off the charts - order now or the queue will grow.

Europe demand 20K units.

RHD cars getting ready for UK, ZA, JP etc.

Tesla / Mercedes Model B - most compelling 2014 affordable electric car (True).

Tesla owns significant proportion of battery IP.

Model X + S 100,000 units in 2015 (another 100% compound growth jump).

Tesla knows how to hit 100,000 units of $100,000 vehicles without a massive capex hit - so long as they have the cells, customers will get the cars.

Panasonic able to maintain supply through 2014 and 3x contract supply rate should be considered a floor and not a ceiling. Panasonic "main partner" not only partner.

Supply constraints to be substantially alleviated in 2014.

Gen III design to be readied in 2014 - photo shoot much!

Battery breakthrough for Gen III identified and ready in 2.5 years time - range extension / price breakthrough on the cards for MS and MX.

CFO: The main purpose of this call is to tell folk we are growing at a crazy pace and adding money to the bank account at the same time! Indeed. That was the main point. Was it really necessary to interrupt Musk whining about far distant battery supply constraints that he plans to solve anyway for the making of 500,000 cars to get the main Q3 2013 point across?


This was the worst telling of the best story I have ever heard.

This was the most concerning part for me in the short term. There's got to be a reason for Elon to be playing the role of cautious and conservative, and Deepak being the optimist. Elon is an amazing story teller and optimist when he wants to be. For some reason, he just doesn't want to be that person right now.

 

[mershaw2001]

Should we start a new thread for the opening price at the bell tomorrow?

My take is that there will be funds that have been sidelined looking to enter, whereas there were not funds looking to exit after the call. If a fund was bearish or looking to take profit, it would not wait until after the risky quarterly earnings when the price was at 176 today, that fund would have exited. However, if a fund thought about entering but had missed the boat, it would want to see that orders were firm, production was firm, and cash was flowing. We got two of the three, and if i were a hedge fund or other large institution, i'd come in now.

I think the after hours is an overreaction because the largest firms don't buy in the AH. I think we'll see some strong support in the 156-157 range tomorrow as some move in to scoop up shares. I think the 154 part at the end of the day is an over reaction. I think we see firm support and then the price begin to move up.

 

[wishing_for_S]

At least someone noticed.

Tesla Motorss Outperform Rating Reaffirmed at Wedbush (TSLA) - Ticker Report

 

[sp4rk]

For goodness [***] sake. Elon!

This was the worst telling of the best story I have ever heard.

Could not agree with you more. The drop occurred at least before I got my email. But when over, I texted a mate of mine, who asked for my opinion, when HE is the expert ... and I had only one word to describe Elon ... EXHAUSTED.

Perhaps he was feeling the ill effects of 10% his (stock) worth disappear over an hour. Like all the longs here did!

It was almost as if they were sitting there, knowing that the report they had just published was perfectly adequate to support the then current stock price, only to see TSLA plummet in front of their eyes and were asking WHY?
And, what do we say to correct the slide?

Realists see the future and Tesla's part in it. And how all the pieces fit so nicely together. Now. Next year. And a decade from now.

We all have our bad days ... and this was not Elon's greatest hour. We cannot expect him to always be on his best. He's juggling so much and sometimes I think we expect too much from him? Chin up, Elon!

Find that lady from Teslive; relax and have a glass of the red she bought you - it's still drinkable!

 

[brianstorms]

True that. Elon sounded pretty much exhausted. His team should make him take the day off before earnings calls. (yeah, right)

+1. I'm left thinking a) Elon truly was just wiped out and is stretched thin like, as Bilbo once said, butter over too much bread; b) this call came out this way because they screwed up something in Q3, or a deal that set something back in Q4, that derailed what might have been a more upbeat call; c) they kept things downbeat and boring for some deliberate reason.

Whatever, this call, plus the repeated quotes from Elon suggesting the stock was higher than the company "deserved", have succeeded in recalibrating downwards the hype and enthusiasm.

Not that I am one bit less enthusiastic about the company's future quarters. I just was kinda getting used to the thrills from Q1 and Q2 2013 and hoped it'd continue. Let's hope 2014's Q1 is a blowout.

In addition to Germany, they simply HAVE to get their s*** together with regard to production constraints. It's now into "excuses" territory rather than "execution" territory.

 

[bonnie]

This was the most concerning part for me in the short term. There's got to be a reason for Elon to be playing the role of cautious and conservative, and Deepak being the optimist. Elon is an amazing story teller and optimist when he wants to be. For some reason, he just doesn't want to be that person right now.

I know this is the short term thread ... but as a long, I'm good with this. The more shorts that pile on in the coming months, the happier I will be. My mental target is realization of the market potential for Gen3.

 

[aznt1217]

I think we'll be fine. This is an overreaction and party from the shorts. Smart money will see the stuff that matters. I think a lot of supplier issues were solved. The results speak for themselves. Elon being tired or not shouldn't matter, the man just went to Germany and works 100 hours a week.

I debated hitting sell, but I think the Q3 is going to be a trap for shorts. The thing that mattered was the Gross Margin for me.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

True that. Elon sounded pretty much exhausted. His team should make him take the day off before earnings calls. (yeah, right)

I haven't listened to the conf call yet, but I wonder if Elon is overworked from working at both SpaceX and Tesla. SpaceX has made impressive technological gains in the past few months, and that has to have come at great effort.

 

[FluxCap]

For goodness [***] sake. Elon!

Cash flow positive growth that is MUCH faster than auto industry norms.

Targeting 0.5 Million units for combined Gen III, S, X.

Demand increasing in North America (US demand peaked: no).

China demand is off the charts - order now or the queue will grow.

Europe demand 20K units.

RHD cars getting ready for UK, ZA, JP etc.

Tesla / Mercedes Model B - most compelling 2014 affordable electric car (True).

Tesla owns significant proportion of battery IP.

Model X + S 100,000 units in 2015 (another 100% compound growth jump).

Tesla knows how to hit 100,000 units of $100,000 vehicles without a massive capex hit - so long as they have the cells, customers will get the cars.

Panasonic able to maintain supply through 2014 and 3x contract supply rate should be considered a floor and not a ceiling. Panasonic "main partner" not only partner.

Supply constraints to be substantially alleviated in 2014.

Gen III design to be readied in 2014 - photo shoot much!

Battery breakthrough for Gen III identified and ready in 2.5 years time - range extension / price breakthrough on the cards for MS and MX.

CFO: The main purpose of this call is to tell folk we are growing at a crazy pace and adding money to the bank account at the same time! Indeed. That was the main point. Was it really necessary to interrupt Musk whining about far distant battery supply constraints that he plans to solve anyway for the making of 500,000 cars to get the main Q3 2013 point across?


This was the worst telling of the best story I have ever heard.

A million times this.

 

[Larken]

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who noticed this! Someone commented here how it was already down 14pts, and I got really confused because I didn't see the letter anywhere. Even if some sources got it quicker then most of us here, I can't imagine they legitimately looked through it all and came to a fair conclusion that soon. CNBC quick jumped on this fact it was down and they already had a guy saying how 2014 will be a horrible year for Tesla, by the time I was finally getting to read it. I mean regardless they didn't have a blowout earnings like many were hoping, but I still got a sense there were some powerfully groups working against us.

This is really not that far fetched, but IMO something to actually expect. We all know that NSA, for example, has the capability to intercept data traffic and that surrveilence capabilities are built into our very own operating systems. You guys probably have not forgotten the recent scandal where a bunch of world leaders got tapped by the NSA. So, if for example, the chanchellor of Germany is even able to being monitored on her every phonecall, despite her having her own massive intelligence apparatus, I would not find it far fetched that a small company (Tesla) can be monitored/hacked into, after all, the report was written electronically at least 2 hours before the ER. Where there is economical incentives you will always find crimes, and do not stop for a second to think that people who claim to follow the law will be the first ones to break it.

 

[MoshMusic]

I know this is the short term thread ... but as a long, I'm good with this. The more shorts that pile on in the coming months, the happier I will be. My mental target is realization of the market potential for Gen3.

I agree. But you have to admit that things seem a lot brighter when Elon the optimist is around.

 

[Julian Cox]

At least someone noticed.

Tesla Motorss Outperform Rating Reaffirmed at Wedbush (TSLA) - Ticker Report

This matters. After the call the analysts get to speak with Deepak about the numbers and then come up with stuff like this.
The numbers say that this company is neither demand nor cash constrained for hypergrowth - in the auto industry - which is beyond remarkable.

 

[tftf]

hypergrowth

How so without more batteries? Is that battery "giga-factory" ready by tomorrow?

Otherwise, I must have listened to a different conference call.

PS: People comparing the IT sector and the car sector will find out over the next few years that the market dynamics, outsourcing options and ramp-up times are very different between the two. One (IT, software) is indeed hyperfast, the other (cars) is hyperslow. TSLA is not the next AAPL. People looking for a quick buck in TSLA will find themselves frozen in time until 2017 or later.

 

[Julian Cox]

How so without more batteries? Is that battery "giga-factory" ready by tomorrow?

Otherwise, I must have listened to a different conference call.

PS: People comparing the IT sector and the car sector will find out over the next few years that the market dynamics, outsourcing options and ramp-up times are very different between the two. One (IT, software) is indeed hyperfast, the other (cars) is hyperslow. TSLA is not the next AAPL. People looking for a quick buck in TSLA will find themselves frozen in time until 2017 or later.

That is an important distinction. They have exactly what they need for hypergrowth through 2015 and beyond - it's done already. Musk was trying to express the considerations for the next issue, getting ready for 500,000 annual production in 2017 and beyond.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think we'll be fine. This is an overreaction and party from the shorts. Smart money will see the stuff that matters. I think a lot of supplier issues were solved. The results speak for themselves. Elon being tired or not shouldn't matter, the man just went to Germany and works 100 hours a week.

I debated hitting sell, but I think the Q3 is going to be a trap for shorts. The thing that mattered was the Gross Margin for me.

I read the shareholder letter and I am more confident than ever that Tesla will achieve its long term goals.

Given the strength of the company and it's nearly 800M pile of cash, the aftermarket drop of 20 pts. is not rational. This is a good buying opportunity for anyone who is willing to hold shares until 2018 and beyond.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

PS: People comparing the IT sector and the car sector will find out over the next few years that the market dynamics, outsourcing options and ramp-up times are very different between the two. One (IT, software) is indeed hyperfast, the other (cars) is hyperslow. TSLA is not the next AAPL. People looking for a quick buck in TSLA will find themselves frozen in time until 2017 or later.

I want to point out though that AAPL's rise was neither fast nor smooth. It took about a decade, from the original iPod, to the iPhone 4S, for AAPL to realize the kind of furious share growth that would lead to a 50-70x return for a very patient investor.

AAPL also faced huge challenges in scaling up production. An iPhone is obviously less complex than a Model S, but it was no cakewalk for Apple to secure millions of leading edge components like Retina displays.

 

[c041v]

AAPL also faced huge challenges in scaling up production. An iPhone is obviously less complex than a Model S, but it was no cakewalk for Apple to secure millions of leading edge components like Retina displays.

Not to mention the fierce competition they had to deal with. Tesla's still enjoying the honeymoon phase on that front.

 

[xhawk101]

Not to mention the fierce competition they had to deal with. Tesla's still enjoying the honeymoon phase on that front.

I don't believe honeymoon is the correct term as this will last for many years ....they have a several year jump on the competition..... I believe the correct term is moat.

 

[PeterJA]

the NY Times strikes again

Headline:
Tesla Posts Smaller Loss but Lowers Sales Outlook

Second paragraph:
The automaker said that it narrowed its third-quarter loss compared with the same period a year ago, as it sold more Model S all-electric luxury sedans, but it tempered its year-end projections for sales. For the year, Tesla said it now expected to deliver about 21,500 cars, down from its initial projections of 25,000.

Tesla Posts Smaller Loss but Lowers Sales Outlook - NYTimes.com

 

[MikeC]

Headline:
Tesla Posts Smaller Loss but Lowers Sales Outlook

Second paragraph:
The automaker said that it narrowed its third-quarter loss compared with the same period a year ago, as it sold more Model S all-electric luxury sedans, but it tempered its year-end projections for sales. For the year, Tesla said it now expected to deliver about 21,500 cars, down from its initial projections of 25,000.

Tesla Posts Smaller Loss but Lowers Sales Outlook - NYTimes.com

Initial projections of 25k?

WTF NYT