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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Actually, I think Tesla did originally guide for 5000 delivered in 2012 and 20,000 in 2013. This was probably back in early to mid 2012. By fall 2012, they lowered their guidance for 2012 to 3000 or so cars but kept their 2013 guidance at 20,000.
Tesla reminds me of Netflix, a stock I watched like a hawk for years in the early days, tuning in to every conf call and studying every analyst report and SEC filing. The market and the media routinely just stumbled over themselves with a lack of understanding of the stock. The company's guidance was slow, deliberate, careful, quarter by quarter for years. They stuck to their guns, had a story, had a way of addressing the dumb concerns about "when are you gonna stop shipping DVDs and start streaming" etc etc.
I see similar issues happening with Tesla. With Tesla instead of DVDs vs streaming, we have Model S/X versus Gen III and 100,000+ deliveries per year. That's all the market really wants to hear about. The luxury car thing is a niche and Tesla needs to expand out of it successfully.
Tesla doesn't instantly gratify and the market wants instant gratification. It's a game changer, but the game it is trying to change is one where the players and the rules have been doing it their way for 100 years.
I think the market will correct its overselling of TSLA over the next few days and we'll be back into the 160s. I think the 200s are kinda gone for a while though.
Elon and company need to catch up on their sleep, execute wildly, and come out with some terrific momentum news like they were doing in Feb-July of this year. Today's conf call was awful. I hope they find their mojo again soon.
I see similar issues happening with Tesla. With Tesla instead of DVDs vs streaming, we have Model S/X versus Gen III and 100,000+ deliveries per year. That's all the market really wants to hear about. The luxury car thing is a niche and Tesla needs to expand out of it successfully.
Tesla doesn't instantly gratify and the market wants instant gratification. It's a game changer, but the game it is trying to change is one where the players and the rules have been doing it their way for 100 years.
I think the market will correct its overselling of TSLA over the next few days and we'll be back into the 160s. I think the 200s are kinda gone for a while though.
Elon and company need to catch up on their sleep, execute wildly, and come out with some terrific momentum news like they were doing in Feb-July of this year. Today's conf call was awful. I hope they find their mojo again soon.
How come the CC was awful? Deepak and Elon sound fine to me? Call happened around lunch time... perfectly normal. Did I miss something?
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Good work, brainstorms (yes, I did that again). Hope it'll be corrected in time for the print edition as well.
Hold on tight through the pain tomorrow and the next few days/weeks. I bet on SCTY instead of TSLA on the eve of both their Q2 reports; got into SCTY at $40 back then, gritted my teeth through the low 30s only to see it flying high now.
Hold on tight through the pain tomorrow and the next few days/weeks. I bet on SCTY instead of TSLA on the eve of both their Q2 reports; got into SCTY at $40 back then, gritted my teeth through the low 30s only to see it flying high now.
This is where the movers and shakers will get more insight/infoElon sounded bored and depressed. Most unenthusiastic delivery of good news. Like someone had to pull it out of him.
I think Elon is too smart for that to be an accident. I think he's purposely trying to reduce expectations and stabilize the stock price. I think he's rebelling against having to answer to the market every quarter for a business that runs on longer cycles.
But I keep wondering if there's some other reason as well. Could there be a reason for him to drive the stock down now, to drive it back up at a later date?
I think Elon is too smart for that to be an accident. I think he's purposely trying to reduce expectations and stabilize the stock price. I think he's rebelling against having to answer to the market every quarter for a business that runs on longer cycles.
But I keep wondering if there's some other reason as well. Could there be a reason for him to drive the stock down now, to drive it back up at a later date?
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
This is factually inaccurate. Tesla even says in their shareholder letter they are raising projections from 21,000 to 21,500.
Why is the NYTimes out to get Tesla? What is their agenda? More importantly for right now, how can we force a correction/retraction to this blatantly false statement?
Edit: just saw brianstorms' post. Thanks!
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Yuri_G
Member
Huh? I've only listened to the past three or so conference calls, but there was no difference between this one and the others. Same inflection and tone.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I have to disagree. To the average investor, today's CC was awful. And if I was Elon, I would feel rather offended because despite how hard TSLA and the team had worked to beat expectations, it wasn't enough to satisfy greedy and overzealous investors.
Here's the message I got from the CC: Even if any other manufacture wants to get into the EV business, it would be an uphill battle to resolve the lithium ion supply issue that TESLA has a firm grip on until 2017. The best thing from CC was TESLA is building a gigafactory to supply its Gen 3 with Lithium ion, essentially almost engraving their dominance in the EV game in stone. It is only a matter of time and not if that Tesla will announce their battery gigafactory.
Here's how I would play it tomorrow. Use 50% of your money to buy in at $155 because you never know if this is already the bottom. If the action moves positive or negative 4-5 points, throw in another 20% and repeat. I suspect the bounce back to 160s will be rather quick. And once the market figures out Tesla is in better shape than the previous 2 quarters we can expect 180s before Q4 CC.
It is being corrected as per other thread. They contacted the person. The 25k was 2012+2013 deliveries.
They're on it. I raised a holy war with them about it an hour or so ago, and I've already heard back from the writer that NYT is working on a fix. (See this and following posts)
Yes I agree. He was quite jovial when asked about the road trip and the subject of his kids was brought up.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Yes, he needs to keep the stock from running away too quickly in order to keep stock options as a valuable incentive tool.
Norbert
TSLA will win
My personal interpretation was that they sounded that way because they saw the stock diving with the release of the shareholder letter. Once it found support around $153 (or wherever that was), their mood seemed to improve. Before that, I think maybe they didn't see a way to counteract what was happening. But maybe that's just my interpretation since that is what I felt like myself in the last few days, remaining on the sidelines in terms of earnings-related investments/trading. I'll probably remain on the sidelines in the coming days since I have no clue where it will go near-term, but my long-term confidence in Tesla (the company) has only increased. I like the idea of a battery giga factory built with partners, and everything Elon said about that. I'm not sure it's what quarterly-result-oriented analysts want to hear, but as a Tesla "fan", it sounded like great news they are actually (and already) considering various locations, even if no decisions have been made yet. Battery production will be a crucial element in the electric car future, and the more influence Tesla and Elon have on that, the better I think it will be.
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It looks like the article has been updated now: Tesla Posts Smaller Loss, but Shares Start to Temper - NYTimes.com
The footer indicates that the print edition will be delivered with the new, updated title. However, there's no indication that the article was previously published online with factual inaccuracies.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I haven't seen anyone say this yet but the market is clearly worried that the Gigafactory is going to mean a huge capital raise.
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