Why is that so clear? The AH dive happened well before the discussion ever turned to the gigafactory.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Why is that so clear? The AH dive happened well before the discussion ever turned to the gigafactory.
Depends on when it's built. There's probably a ton of government incentives. I also don't think it's coincidence that Daimler made the comments earlier in the week. Toyota might even help as well.
I noticed it moved lower when that was introduced. Granted most of the drop had already occurred but we lost another 5 points on that I view it in opposition. Imagine the competitive position if they pull that off, then again it also portends Elon doesn't think super capacitor is viable for a decade
Ah, I guess I wasn't paying close enough attention. I agree that it would put them in an incredibly strong position and I should hope most long-term investors believe the same.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
no mate, it's a news wire from IB.
you'll get articles about that later today, don't worry.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I didn't get the impression that he was depressed or bored. I got the impression that he was repressed and censored.
At these calls he talks as if he is working at sorting through what he can or cannot say. This time I got a picture in my mind's eye of someone looking at him over the top of their glasses at him, passing him notes or kicking him in the shin under the table.
When he's upbeat, he appears to excitedly reveal a bit too much prematurely and it comes across as overly ambitious. I wouldn't be surprised if he has been asked to temper his enthusiasm. Sometimes he drops some subltle clues about things that are really big once you contemplate it for a while. That is why I love to listen to him speak. You really have to pay attention to his qualifier words.
Nice to see major financial firms upgrading Tesla. However I am wondering how this Gigafactory will be financed. Elon has some work to do on this before introducing Gen 3.
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Futures are up. Hope that causes some buying of TSLA tomorrow.
Elon should have stated total cars produced for Q3 and stated the number he indirectly mentioned for 2014 guidance - 40K (20k US and 20 K Europe). Not a fully prepared ER IMO.
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EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Elon specifically said, when asked by Andrea James about whether it would be Tesla or a battery manufacturer that would build the giga factory, that it "would most likely be a partner." So I don't think this had an impact.
I see a JV as a likely result. So TSLA would for example bear 50% of the costs. On the other hand, the Asian (most likely Panasonic) partner would probably have to be convinced to build this factory in California near the TSLA plant, which he may object to.
I don't see a battery partner taking 100% of the risk to build this "giga" factory for a single customer given the sums involved.
if it involves supplying other customers, TSLA would probably fear risking intellectual property (at least, that's what TSLA bulls contend arguing TSLA's BMS and batteries are years ahead of the competition for cars).
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One thing on the call was completely clear: The requirement for an impending fundraiser to keep pace with investor expectations of exponential growth is so out of the question that the question was not even asked. Not once.
The company has achieved a steady state of cash flow positive hypergrowth standing on its own sales and cash flow model, in the auto industry of all things. Musk does not need to labor to point out this obvious fact to the market because the company is in no hurry to sell any of its shares. Noticing this fundamentally key paradox (cash flow positive growth) and upgrading existing shares accordingly is a job well suited to market analysts.
Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Product ArchitectYes, the general course we are trying to take is to make steady modest improvements in our available cash while growing the business at a really rapid percentage rate relative to the rest of industry I mean these are super big percentage growth rates compared to you know what is normal in [the] car business. So if we can we can actually generate a little bit of positive cash flow while having an ongoing very high percentage growth rate, that seems like a pretty good outcome.
Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial OfficerAnd that's how we look Q3 results, considering how much we have invested globally in our infrastructure and our growth and we still generated positive cash flow. It is a great outcome for the quarter.
One more thing: Lease Accounting.
All 2013 residual guarantees: All circa 6450 of them (going on 30% of 21,500 units) will become eligible for redemption in 2016 and not before. 2016 is a year in which at least 100,000 Model S and Model X combined deliveries will occur.
The total value therefore of the residual guarantees at circa 50% of the sales price of 6450 cars represents 100% of the sales price of 3225 cars. In other words the maximum possible cost to the business of 2013 Residual guarantees is 3.225% of 2016 gross revenues from the sales of Model X and Model S vehicles assuming all 6450 of those 2013 Model S cars are repurchased by Tesla in 2016 and simply crushed. They will of course not all be repurchased and none of them will be crushed. Naturally those that are repurchased will be resold, reducing the real-world impact of Lease accounting on both current and future cash flows to very close indeed to absolute zero.
The company has achieved a steady state of cash flow positive hypergrowth standing on its own sales and cash flow model, in the auto industry of all things. Musk does not need to labor to point out this obvious fact to the market because the company is in no hurry to sell any of its shares. Noticing this fundamentally key paradox (cash flow positive growth) and upgrading existing shares accordingly is a job well suited to market analysts.
Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Product ArchitectYes, the general course we are trying to take is to make steady modest improvements in our available cash while growing the business at a really rapid percentage rate relative to the rest of industry I mean these are super big percentage growth rates compared to you know what is normal in [the] car business. So if we can we can actually generate a little bit of positive cash flow while having an ongoing very high percentage growth rate, that seems like a pretty good outcome.
Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial OfficerAnd that's how we look Q3 results, considering how much we have invested globally in our infrastructure and our growth and we still generated positive cash flow. It is a great outcome for the quarter.
One more thing: Lease Accounting.
All 2013 residual guarantees: All circa 6450 of them (going on 30% of 21,500 units) will become eligible for redemption in 2016 and not before. 2016 is a year in which at least 100,000 Model S and Model X combined deliveries will occur.
The total value therefore of the residual guarantees at circa 50% of the sales price of 6450 cars represents 100% of the sales price of 3225 cars. In other words the maximum possible cost to the business of 2013 Residual guarantees is 3.225% of 2016 gross revenues from the sales of Model X and Model S vehicles assuming all 6450 of those 2013 Model S cars are repurchased by Tesla in 2016 and simply crushed. They will of course not all be repurchased and none of them will be crushed. Naturally those that are repurchased will be resold, reducing the real-world impact of Lease accounting on both current and future cash flows to very close indeed to absolute zero.
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I admit I'm an amateur with stocks, but I've wondered if the tone of the CC was intentional to bring down the price in order to spur more buying of stock. And wouldn't that be a way to raise capital?
we were at 156.8 when cc started(and even 155 before) so the factory issue got nothing to do with the price tank
Gtoffo
Member
Has this been posted yet?
Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) but lowered its price target to $205.00 (from $240.00). The change follows Q3 results, which disappointed some investors.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...$205+at+Wedbush/8851994.html?si_client=intbro
Wedbush maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) but lowered its price target to $205.00 (from $240.00). The change follows Q3 results, which disappointed some investors.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...$205+at+Wedbush/8851994.html?si_client=intbro
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
What, G&S stating positive view? Impossible 
But they are still idiots claiming that they don't know if the demand is there. Maybe Tesla should release the reservation numbers dynamics to alleviate considerations on demand shortage?
But they are still idiots claiming that they don't know if the demand is there. Maybe Tesla should release the reservation numbers dynamics to alleviate considerations on demand shortage?- Status
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