Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[PeterJA]

bloomberg article is spot on and saying what i've said after the q3 earning when dumping my shares. it's easy to cook the books and fool people who are not familiar with accounting. tesla is still losing money and prefered to represent it as they've turned it around, BS!

suddenly i ear more and more voices here who don't likes much of the things that happen lately with the company, it's nice to know that not everyone here worship tesla and can have a word against when deservedly so.

anyway in the long run i still believe tesla can become a great company but lately they are far from it.

The assertion that demand for the Model S with the finance program available is not "true demand" is not spot on.

The implication that anyone was misled by putting GAAP numbers on page 3 instead of page 1 of the ER is not spot on.

Tesla is increasing its revenues, gross margins, and addressable markets, and is building infrastructure at a phenomenal rate.

These statements are not "worship" of Tesla; they are facts. Tesla is a great company right now.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Under what assumption do you say that Tesla isn't making money. Their cash balance increased and as far as I understood it's not offset by short term liabilities. The main contention point is that non-GAAP assumes that Tesla is pocketing 100% of the lease delayed money either because the car isn't returned or because they can turn it around for profit on average.

So which part of this do you disagree with?

 

[redharel]

The assertion that demand for the Model S with the finance program available is not "true demand" is not spot on.

The implication that anyone was misled by putting GAAP numbers on page 3 instead of page 1 of the ER is not spot on.

Tesla is increasing its revenues, gross margins, and addressable markets, and is building infrastructure at a phenomenal rate.

These statements are not "worship" of Tesla; they are facts. Tesla is a great company right now.

you miss the point of the article, it's not about lower demand or whatsoever.
the problem is not the book but it's cover

- - - Updated - - -

Under what assumption do you say that Tesla isn't making money. Their cash balance increased and as far as I understood it's not offset by short term liabilities. The main contention point is that non-GAAP assumes that Tesla is pocketing 100% of the lease delayed money either because the car isn't returned or because they can turn it around for profit on average.

So which part of this do you disagree with?

sorry mario i've tried to explain it to you once but you are stubborn to understand/don't have the knowledge and i'm not going to try again.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

sorry mario i've tried to explain it to you once but you are stubborn to understand/don't have the knowledge and i'm not going to try again.

Well I run a successful business so I think I do understand some. And even though it's a future liability I still think it's wrong to use that as a claim that Tesla is losing money. They make money taking a theoretical future liability. Especially as the likely sales situation in three years includes far more sales therefore having a minor impact on GM in the worst case.

So do elabotate how they are in fact losing money and to where...

 

[PeterJA]

you miss the point of the article.

The point of the article was to smear Tesla with an inflammatory headline backed up by mostly baseless innuendo. I did not miss that.

 

[FANGO]

sorry mario i've tried to explain it to you once but you are stubborn to understand/don't have the knowledge and i'm not going to try again.

Redharel, it's Mario, and others, who have tried to explain it to you, and you are the one who is too stubborn or unknowledgeable to understand.

The company gained money, and GAAP numbers are lower because of a nonexistent liability on "leased" cars because GAAP has no way to report the financing model Tesla has and makes them report them as leased when they are not. You continuing to say they lost money when they have more money than they used to have is ridiculous, and you are the one who is being stubbornly unaware of the facts here.

And to respond to everyone else: as I said before, you're all just grasping for some way to deal with the losses of the last couple weeks. Yes, they suck. But all this stuff about "Elon isn't into it anymore" or whatever is complete nonsense. Nobody is trying to tank the stock (well, except for the media), nobody is misreporting safety issues (except for, again, the media), nobody has lost their passion (except all of you). The level of commentary I've seen here in the last couple weeks has been frankly disgusting, a bunch of chicken little nonsense, people talking about raising the ride height of the cars and putting cow catchers on the front of it and other ridiculous fantasies which will never happen, should never happen, and have no reason whatsoever to happen. You're all being taken up by this media narrative that Tesla is having "problems" when nothing could be further from the truth. The company just posted stellar earnings, the cars are as safe as you can get, and the only reason we all feel this way is that robots expected 7k cars in the last quarter. That's what started the slide, and then everyone piled on trying to find an explanation of why the slide happened. When they couldn't find a reason in the Tesla quarterly results, which were stellar, they had to make one up. And then a crash happened where the car kept the occupant perfectly safe, and where the occupant was able to return later and get his documents out of his car, by using the key which still friggin worked even though the firefighters were about to pry the doors off because they expected the car to be a complete writeoff. How is this not amazing to people? Get over your paper losses and start being rational. I know the market won't be rational and never is, but that's no excuse to let your doom and gloom attitude seep over towards the company instead of just at the stock.

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: everyone play nice please. I'd rather not have to start editing out chunks of a fast moving thread......

 

[redharel]

Well I run a successful business so I think I do understand some. And even though it's a future liability I still think it's wrong to use that as a claim that Tesla is losing money. They make money taking a theoretical future liability. Especially as the likely sales situation in three years includes far more sales therefore having a minor impact on GM in the worst case.

So do elabotate how they are in fact losing money and to where...

don't take it personally, i'm sure you're a great guy and very skillful but you probably don't have the knowledge in that part.
as i said before it's not only the difference in GAAP and non GAAP revenues that makes tesla a losing money company.
but leave it a side, we've been there already and don't want to get there again.

 

[gene]

And to respond to everyone else: as I said before, you're all just grasping for some way to deal with the losses of the last couple weeks. Yes, they suck. But all this stuff about "Elon isn't into it anymore" or whatever is complete nonsense. Nobody is trying to tank the stock (well, except for the media), nobody is misreporting safety issues (except for, again, the media), nobody has lost their passion (except all of you). The level of commentary I've seen here in the last couple weeks has been frankly disgusting, a bunch of chicken little nonsense, people talking about raising the ride height of the cars and putting cow catchers on the front of it and other ridiculous fantasies which will never happen, should never happen, and have no reason whatsoever to happen. You're all being taken up by this media narrative that Tesla is having "problems" when nothing could be further from the truth. The company just posted stellar earnings, the cars are as safe as you can get, and the only reason we all feel this way is that robots expected 7k cars in the last quarter. That's what started the slide, and then everyone piled on trying to find an explanation of why the slide happened. When they couldn't find a reason in the Tesla quarterly results, which were stellar, they had to make one up. And then a crash happened where the car kept the occupant perfectly safe, and where the occupant was able to return later and get his documents out of his car, by using the key which still friggin worked even though the firefighters were about to pry the doors off because they expected the car to be a complete writeoff. How is this not amazing to people? Get over your paper losses and start being rational. I know the market won't be rational and never is, but that's no excuse to let your doom and gloom attitude seep over towards the company instead of just at the stock.

Very well said. I am still holding all my shares and even have added some more. This has been/is still just yet another battle getting to where many of us would like, a future of EV cars of all brands and types on the road. Without Tesla, Nissan and California we wouldn't have all the cool EV's we have and are coming soon.

I can really use an EV truck.

 

[mershaw2001]

I've lost a tremendous amount (as has everyone else here) because of this and other stocks tanking at the same time and having to sell out to meet margin calls. Whenever that happens, I become more risk averse.

However, I consistently remember that about 2 days after I become risk averse is the time to buy. Most of us here have a high tolerance for loss and it's usually the time that we break that is the time to buy.

I have sold a number of puts today based on
1) the news cycle is now grasping at straws, as they are raising issues that have been raised before in an effort to push the stock down.
2) Several times we have tested 134.
3) we need a large event to happen to take out 134, and absent that we will walk along in the 130's for a while-3-4 days- until everyone calms down, and then a good piece of news will come out.

 

[InTheShadows]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

I can really use an EV truck.

Me too, my wife and I were just talking about this today. Two full sized motors with dual battery packs with the ability to tow. Using the Model S motors it would have more torque than the F-350/3500 series diesel trucks on the market today. All they have to overcome is overheating towing up a big hill. Regen braking could be greater with both motors holding a load back down the hill with less risk of overheating brakes. With dual packs you could charge in the same time at a supercharger and with out extra load you could still have a range of 300+ miles. Ok, I'll stop. The truck is really exciting. besides this is OT.

 

[redharel]

I've lost a tremendous amount (as has everyone else here) because of this and other stocks tanking at the same time and having to sell out to meet margin calls. Whenever that happens, I become more risk averse.

However, I consistently remember that about 2 days after I become risk averse is the time to buy. Most of us here have a high tolerance for loss and it's usually the time that we break that is the time to buy.

I have sold a number of puts today based on
1) the news cycle is now grasping at straws, as they are raising issues that have been raised before in an effort to push the stock down.
2) Several times we have tested 134.
3) we need a large event to happen to take out 134, and absent that we will walk along in the 130's for a while-3-4 days- until everyone calms down, and then a good piece of news will come out.

i think you are in the wrong side, tesla is a momentum stock and the trend is by far bearish. you can always find a positive like oh 134 is very hard resistance and we've had all the bad news already and so on but as much as most of people don't like to hear it, until q4 results tesla will mostly be traded on technical as i can't see any news to either side to realy make a change to trend.

take a look at the weekly chart and the tell me you still believe we're going up?!

 

[Grendal]

1. Tesla is building cars at a faster rate than ever.
2. The car is still one of the best cars on the planet.
3. It is still one of the safest car on the planet, in spite of all the fear mongering.
4. Tesla has increased their profit margins.
5. Demand is increasing, not decreasing.

All of that indicates a successful business. I don't care how you play with the money, GAAP, non-GAAP, leases, whatever. The stock price has little to nothing to do with Tesla itself and what it is doing.

And here is why it doesn't look as good as it could - on paper:

6. The company is still growing and spending on infrastructure. This includes R&D, Superchargers, employees, the factory, and stores (Tesla's form of advertising).

Most new large companies like Tesla are not even supposed to make money at this time in their business cycle. The fact that Tesla is still spending to create that growth means that, in time, there will be sales that are generated because of that growth.

 

[FANGO]

i think you are in the wrong side, tesla is a momentum stock and the trend is by far bearish. you can always find a positive like oh 134 is very hard resistance and we've had all the bad news already and so on but as much as most of people don't like to hear it, until q4 results tesla will mostly be traded on technical as i can't see any news to either side to realy make a change to trend.

take a look at the weekly chart and the tell me you still believe we're going up?!

Tell us again why "buy high sell low" is a good strategy. Did you also sell NFLX at 70 and buy it at 300+?

 

[aznt1217]

The assertion that demand for the Model S with the finance program available is not "true demand" is not spot on.

The implication that anyone was misled by putting GAAP numbers on page 3 instead of page 1 of the ER is not spot on.

Tesla is increasing its revenues, gross margins, and addressable markets, and is building infrastructure at a phenomenal rate.

These statements are not "worship" of Tesla; they are facts. Tesla is a great company right now.

I was going to make my response, but this pretty much echos what I was going to say. They aren't losing money they are making progress (which must be emphasized in a capitally intensive business) to get to the GAAP standard of profitability. Stating that the problem is "not the book but it's the cover" doesn't make any sense at all and Redharrel, I don't know how it is in Israel but I hope you realize these statements have to pass multiple levels of audit checks by third parties.

On another note, you may want to tone it down. We all know this thread is susceptible to confirmation bias... it's the Tesla Motors Club... but any movements on the downside that are backed by solid evidence, framed properly, and unbiased have been taken to heart. Problem is, I haven't found any unbiased posts that you've made so far, they strike me as emotional and too directed at others to the point where it's really unproductive-- mods, my sincerest apologies if this is "snipinnes" but I would like it more to be taken as constructive feedback.

 

[FluxCap]

And to respond to everyone else: as I said before, you're all just grasping for some way to deal with the losses of the last couple weeks. Yes, they suck. But all this stuff about "Elon isn't into it anymore" or whatever is complete nonsense. Nobody is trying to tank the stock (well, except for the media), nobody is misreporting safety issues (except for, again, the media), nobody has lost their passion (except all of you). The level of commentary I've seen here in the last couple weeks has been frankly disgusting, a bunch of chicken little nonsense, people talking about raising the ride height of the cars and putting cow catchers on the front of it and other ridiculous fantasies which will never happen, should never happen, and have no reason whatsoever to happen. You're all being taken up by this media narrative that Tesla is having "problems" when nothing could be further from the truth. The company just posted stellar earnings, the cars are as safe as you can get, and the only reason we all feel this way is that robots expected 7k cars in the last quarter. That's what started the slide, and then everyone piled on trying to find an explanation of why the slide happened. When they couldn't find a reason in the Tesla quarterly results, which were stellar, they had to make one up. And then a crash happened where the car kept the occupant perfectly safe, and where the occupant was able to return later and get his documents out of his car, by using the key which still friggin worked even though the firefighters were about to pry the doors off because they expected the car to be a complete writeoff. How is this not amazing to people? Get over your paper losses and start being rational. I know the market won't be rational and never is, but that's no excuse to let your doom and gloom attitude seep over towards the company instead of just at the stock.

Extremely well-said.

What we are seeing is the delayed but finally somewhat successful attempt by Tesla's enemies (big oil, big ICE-makers) with near limitless pocketbooks to use every trick in their arsenal to move media opinion against Tesla Motors. The fact that many of Tesla's most dedicated supporters on this very forum have been swayed speaks volumes. Yet, the fact that many of us took defensive positions due to a halting of the momentum of TSLA in no way means we do not believe in Tesla Motors bright future.

The stock and the company are not the same thing.

Elon is fine.

The main product is the best car on the planet, still.

More people want the car than can have the car, which is an enviable problem for any company. The company instantly sells EVERY PRODUCT IT MAKES.

The company has incredible and sustainable cashflow and profit growth which insulates it from risk going forward.

The scaling of the supply chain to produce more cars is a solvable problem without excessive complexity or risk.

***

However, the company's brand is under all-out attack, and its stock price has taken the hit as a result.

As for TSLA, whether you buy and hold or wait and see is up to you. But as for Tesla Motors: keep supporting the company, and the dream of the brighter, faster, cheaper, safer, more fun future that it enables.

 

[palmer_md]

After reading a bit of this argument in recent comments, I decided I wanted to go back and look at the details a bit further upstream to try and understand where redharel is coming from. I must say that I'm still confused about how the bank account went up and they are still losing money. In one quote redharel indicates that the money could have come from a non-core part of the business, but that would have to be a lot of income would it not? I'm still trying to learn how to read financial reports and I'd be very interested in hearing how this works. Perhaps this topic is too hot, and I'll have to learn elsewhere, but I hope this discussion could remain civil even if we cannot agree on the numbers.

The quote below I'm most interested in hearing discussed is the one that includes "at the end of the day 15,935 - 18,422 = losing money"

After writing this, I realized that this is probably not the best place to have this discussion since it is the short term price movement thread, so it the moderators want to move it to the thread about the q3 report that is fine by me...it just happens that this discussion was here and it is where I found all the quotes...and I don't mean to pick on redharel by quoting all his posts, but others seem do disagree with his view and I really wanted to get a handle on what his view is compared to the others which on the surface seem to make the most sense to me.

really? you can't lose money and have a positive cash flow? PMSL
i guess you are not familiar with accounting magics
0.12$ profit is like the rest of wall street which is a lie on a non gaap basis.
tesla lost 0.32$(if i remember correctly)

wrong, analysts expected more than 5500 and some of them even greater than 6000

i agree that you have to spend in order to gain and it's normal and fine but it's still won't change the bottom line which is that tesla is still losing money
BTW leave tesla aside, you never know if the R&D invesment is real or not.
some companies cooking their books.
in tesla case it can be that margin on car is not as they say so. they can throw the difference(the real and desire one) just to get the number they want into R&D section(not me and not you can know that for sure)
tesla example is hypothetical!

the positive cash flow can come from lots of things who's not related to core business and is not relevant(the company doesn't give details about that).
the 800$ Mill in tesla pocket is from people who bought their shares and from bonds issuing and not from profit they create.


don't get me wrong, i believe tesla can change the world of transportation but as we talking in a short term topic you can't bring assumption that will happen in the future to prove a price worth in present time. paying premium for future growth is fine and natural but when your share price valuing 95% future growth and 5% real value don't be surprised if the share is crashing when you fail to deliver out of the blue expectation.

anyway let's move on...

again you're trying to predict the future, that's why GAAP exist to prevent those sort of colossal mistakes.
when the ceo can't give you a forecast for 2014 you try to predict 2016?
and people expects smart money to flow into tesla based on few years dreams!

no i don't think tesla will have 100% loss from the lease accounting and the market don't care what i think.

as i said about the market and what i think, same is for you, the market don't cares what you think.



the difference between the GAAP and non GAAP is not only based on the lease accounting.
non-GAAP to GAAP compensation
R&D Stock-based compensation expense(8,707)
+
SG&A Stock-based compensation expense(9,715)
= 18,422
Net income (Non-GAAP)15,935
at the end of the day 15,935 - 18,422 = losing money
as i said before it's easy to cook the books to fool those who are not accounting profesional or those who don't read between the lines(ask the big banks about that, they are masters in that section)

bloomberg article is spot on and saying what i've said after the q3 earning when dumping my shares. it's easy to cook the books and fool people who are not familiar with accounting. tesla is still losing money and prefered to represent it as they've turned it around, BS!

suddenly i ear more and more voices here who don't likes much of the things that happen lately with the company, it's nice to know that not everyone here worship tesla and can have a word against when deservedly so.

anyway in the long run i still believe tesla can become a great company but lately they are far from it.

don't take it personally, i'm sure you're a great guy and very skillful but you probably don't have the knowledge in that part.
as i said before it's not only the difference in GAAP and non GAAP revenues that makes tesla a losing money company.
but leave it a side, we've been there already and don't want to get there again.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Solar City is now partnered with Nissan and BMW. Any bets on how long it will be before Tesla partners with BMW and Nissan?


SolarCity Offers 10 Percent Discount to BMW i3 Buyers | PluginCars.com

 

[MikeC]

Those of us that were around since before Q1 are used to periods like this. It's only the bandwagon investors that became used to a never-ending run-up that think the sky is falling because the stock is finally taking a breather after a perfect storm of bad news. The true believers who are buying in now in times of fear and doubt are the ones who will reap the benefits when TSLA takes off again.

 

[FANGO]

Extremely well-said.

What we are seeing is the delayed but finally somewhat successful attempt by Tesla's enemies (big oil, big ICE-makers) with near limitless pocketbooks to use every trick in their arsenal to move media opinion against Tesla Motors. The fact that many of Tesla's most dedicated supporters on this very forum have been swayed speaks volumes. Yet, the fact that many of us took defensive positions due to a halting of the momentum of TSLA in no way means we do not believe in Tesla Motors bright future.
***

However, the company's brand is under all-out attack, and its stock price has taken the hit as a result.

I will disagree on one thing though, I do not necessarily think this media narrative is a conspiracy from big oil or anything of the sort. I think the media is just doing their normal thing, exploiting an easily-spooked public to keep them glued to the TV so their sponsors will be happy. They see a prominent world-changing venture, they see something they can call a "problem," so they put it in front of people's eyes because they know the combination of those two things will drive clicks, and clicks equals money. They don't care what the narrative is, they just care that there is a narrative, and that the narrative an be framed as exciting.

The flipside of all this is that "there is no such thing as bad publicity." Remember there are vast swaths of the world who have no idea what Tesla is. It is unfortunate that their first introduction to it is through a media narrative that this car "isn't safe," but remember they are still being introduced to it nonetheless, and best of all, it's not costing Tesla any money. As long as Tesla can't afford or doesn't make it a priority to advertise, free media advertising is great, although unfortunately you need to take the good with the bad. Thankfully, those who already know about the car, and anyone who does any amount of research into it, will know that this is not an issue, and this goes for many of the people who are just being introduced to the brand. This is probably why sales went up after the first incident - it was publicity. That said, I don't know that I fully believe there's no such thing as bad publicity, but as long as we're not talking about a Toyota-like situation, I think this will all be fine and possibly even positive.

And in a little while, the media will move on to something else, and so will the public. The public will know that an electric car exists, that a lot of people are buying them, and thus a couple barriers to entry are taken down. Unfortunately they'll associate the car with something they shouldn't, but for a long time that was the only thing anyone knew about the Volt, and their sales are doing just fine. Of course this is the short-term thread, so maybe I should be saying all of this somewhere else.