Chickenlittle
Banned
I suspect your correct it would be interesting to look at large sellers in the am to see who started the ball rolling
i believe this whole investor thread should be closed. It does nothing to promote the car or company.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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i believe this whole investor thread should be closed. It does nothing to promote the car or company.
This article is a joke.
The NHTSA published their investigation on Friday November 15. It was not a secret, it was on the internet. Tesla referred to it on the following Monday in Elon's blog - that's within 1 workday. I am quite sure no company is required to announce anything over a weekend. Plus, as I said, the NHTSA made it available online so it was available to all. As an investor you can even set up automatic email alerts on Tesla via the NHTSA website.
As with majority of articles from this author things just do not add up. Information about NHTSA preliminary investigation was available from their site since Friday, the day investigation was open. Since information was publicly available on Friday, the claim of trading based on insider information on Monday just does not hold any scrutiny.
Oops I gave him page views because I though there was a possible SEC probe. While I'm not sure if the investigation was actually on the website on Friday, I can't honestly see how it is Tesla's responsibility to notify the shareholders of the impending investigation. In fact NHTSA had commented that they usually tell the automakers first before telling the public. NHTSA would not do that if it weren't perfectly legal. Now if someone inside Tesla shared this information with market participants that is insider trading but the SEC would have to find out who did it and go after them.
Just a flood of negative articles today all over the net. (Google seems to offer up the most negative articles at the top of the news feed, why is that?)
Astonishing to me the level of ill-will and deliberate misinformation regarding Tesla in the US press, Bloomberg, Fox, Wall Street analysts, etc.
War profiteers and Koch bothers control a lot of the press these days though subsidiary entities.
Hard to avoid the impression that it is an all out coordinated attack on the company and the stock.
People are publishing this crap because they are being paid to do so.
Astonishing to me the level of ill-will and deliberate misinformation regarding Tesla in the US press, Bloomberg, Fox, Wall Street analysts, etc.
War profiteers and Koch bothers control a lot of the press these days though subsidiary entities.
Hard to avoid the impression that it is an all out coordinated attack on the company and the stock.
People are publishing this crap because they are being paid to do so.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Probably todays slump cause while market in general is up:
TSLA -- which has nearly quadrupled in value year-over-year -- has switched gears recently, shaving off 31.3% during the past month to trade at 26.09, thanks in part to a poorly received fourth-quarter forecast on Nov. 5. As such, Barclays slashed its price target for the equity to $120 from $141 this morning.
Analyst Downgrades: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA), Twitter Inc (TWTR), and Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) | Trading Floor Blog | Schaeffer's Investment Research
TSLA -- which has nearly quadrupled in value year-over-year -- has switched gears recently, shaving off 31.3% during the past month to trade at 26.09, thanks in part to a poorly received fourth-quarter forecast on Nov. 5. As such, Barclays slashed its price target for the equity to $120 from $141 this morning.
Analyst Downgrades: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA), Twitter Inc (TWTR), and Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) | Trading Floor Blog | Schaeffer's Investment Research
I could agree with what you said about Fox, but that is hardly a surprise (and to a lesser extent Bloomberg).
But many mass media outlets had tons of positive coverage for TSLA. For example an "analyst" like Andrea James. Please ask yourself objectively if she sounds like an analyst or a TSLA PR person.
Ask anyone in PR/advertising what the TSLA coverage post IPO was worth in terms of saved advertising $. There are thousands of companies listed, many of them have innovative products worth talking about. Ask yourself how many got as much free press coverage and interviews as TSLA (except for maybe AAPL, but then AAPL has the largest market cap worldwide).
TSLA was long a media darling, there is no "conspiracy", except for the obvious outlets such as Fox where everything alt energy/Obama is close to evil
.As for analysts, I also think the contrary is true. Most sell-siders are bullish on TSLA, some with price targets above $200. If anything they follow the price on the chart. Look for my old comment where I listed the analyst of Deutsche Bank price targets. His TSLA PT was $28 up to late February 2013, now his latest from September 2013 is $200.
Mass media love to put "heroes" on a podium, celebrate them...only to smack them down again. That's how they work and make money, cynical but true. Same for artists as for companies. Mass media, including most financial media are in the business of entertainment.
Anyone looking for good stock advice from CNBC and other outlets is misguided in my opinion. Do your own research, study the numbers, don't follow the herd. Following momentum is dangerous until you exactly know when to jump off. That is my honest opinion.
When I warned here in late September and posted links about "Behavioral Finance" (that would include only getting news and opinion on a forum such as this one where 90%+ is bullish) I got tons of negative reactions. Many if not most longs were sure TSLA would soon cross $200 post earnings or at least stay close to $200.
What successful investors told me: Listen to people who take the opposite direction of your trade before you make a decision - otherwise, you are in for more biased/selective news filtering.
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that's a fair point and accentuates the world we're in today. There are precious few long term investors and even fewer long term big thinkers and doers.
When you invest in TSLA for MORE than following the price, your following the same rough road that Elon and Co are taking.
That's the road I prefer for myself (while understandably not the one for many),
I think it will afford the largest reward in the end (and not just financially)
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I agree with you. Unfortunately, I've gotten in the habit of following this thread because it's been exciting. I've been hoping for the rise to continue. OTOH, the drop is good for me in the immediate future. I don't want to sell any of my TSLA in the near term, but I'm retired and about 75% of my TSLA is in my IRA. I have to sell and cash out of my IRA a minimum distribution. The lower TSLA is this year, the less I'll have to remove next year. Hopefully it will go up enough next year that my minimum distribution will involve a smaller number of shares.
Hello, I am new to this forum, however has been lurking for a few weeks.
I got into TSLA at 30ish, and had to sell at 80ish as i needed money as a down payment for my house.
Overall, i love the company and the product, however the price here is insane. Pricing in huge growth with very little risk discounting is not prudent.
I have finally shorted TSLA at 155, covered a half of my position and got some Dec 100 puts instead.
What triggered my position was the stand that Musk took with the fires. Launching into funny math of comparing Tesla fires with current ICE fleet fire statistics makes no sense.
The argument should have been Model S vs. Mercedes S class or BMW 7 both 2012-2013 model years as benchmark.
I predict that there is actually a recall that will have to happen and meanwhile there is a cloud of uncertainty that will drive the stock lower on a short-term.
I got into TSLA at 30ish, and had to sell at 80ish as i needed money as a down payment for my house.
Overall, i love the company and the product, however the price here is insane. Pricing in huge growth with very little risk discounting is not prudent.
I have finally shorted TSLA at 155, covered a half of my position and got some Dec 100 puts instead.
What triggered my position was the stand that Musk took with the fires. Launching into funny math of comparing Tesla fires with current ICE fleet fire statistics makes no sense.
The argument should have been Model S vs. Mercedes S class or BMW 7 both 2012-2013 model years as benchmark.
I predict that there is actually a recall that will have to happen and meanwhile there is a cloud of uncertainty that will drive the stock lower on a short-term.
You're wrong. But thanks for going short (I'm long). The Model S should not be compared to new cars, as the Model S fire risk will not increase over time. However, ICE cars do have increased risk over time. No recall. And price will rocket. My previous average share price was $92 (I bought 15% more this morning), and I started buying at $27.
While that may be true, do you know if that data is available? Especially non-U.S. data? The comparison you are looking for may not happen merely because we lack the data. Fires are relatively commonplace and non-Tesla auto manufacturers are not necessarily privy to all the fires and crashes that have taken place with their cars. Further, they may not be willing to share any such information they have on a per model basis. It's plainly unremarkable when an Audi, BMW, or Mercedes goes up in flames after a crash. Or goes up in flames without a crash.
We do have recall information in some instances in the U.S. which helps provide some comparison. For example, Ford had recall their Eco-boost engine based cars several times for fire related issues including 13 actual fires due to overheating problems. But do we have specific global information on say a BMW 7 series? I doubt it. Search BMW fire and you'll see number examples of BMW's burning to the ground without crashes - just electrical problems, overheating problems, etc.
I hear that! Not in a dissimilar situation myself; everyone has to invest within their own circumstance, no doubt
Yes, there might well be a recall, we don't know. That is in fact, very much part of the automotive business and part of the road to bringing EVs to the masses, which Elon clearly states as the mission of Tesla (and as such the mission of the long term investor). In fact, I could say with a fair amount of certainty that my investment in the company not only expects many recalls over the years of that road, but demands them when appropriate.
I agree with you by the way- that the share price (valuation) was much too high to be sustainable over the short term, even regardless of fires or other production events (In fact, so did Elon by his statements). And with a short squeeze it was accentuated. It was disheartening to know that some of the gains on-paper would have to be sacrificed on-paper for the next process to take place (and it does make sense to do the things necessary for that- protective puts, adjust LEAPS, trim positions etc.). I'm actually happier now that the price has come back to a more reasonable level with future growth expectation and risk, precisely because that's back on the road I'm on.
Model S risk may not increase over time, however newer ICE car do (arguably) have much lower risk of fire vs. older cars. This is why you must compare apples to apples.. best way it to compare to direct competitions. aka cars Model S is positioned to compete against (as i said earlier S-class and 7 series).
Alternatively, compare to other electrics, aka Volt, which i believe had to be re-called for similar fire situation.
Newer ICE cars do not have lower risk. New BMWs and other cars burn all the time. The design of these cars has not changed materially in 20 years to prevent fire. Tesla on the other hand has materially changed design of cars to prevent death where before there would be certain death (Mexico). Thus, no recall, and reiteration of superior design when all is done. The price will rocket (just warning you).
The warning is really funny
will give u props for that. I don't see an upside trigger. My position will only change once real statistical argument will come into play. I am sure the Feds have fire statistics by make/year/miles driven, etc. The fact that the cars are safer now vs. 12 years ago (an average age of a car on a road) cannot be disputed.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Anyone familiar with NHSTA investigations know how long this will take? I am trying to pick the right timing for the announcement
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
Talk about a flat line around $121.50. It's been a while since this stock has flatlined like this.
Norbert
TSLA will win
We don't know, however don't think there will be one. Not because I would have experience second-guessing NHTSA (which I don't), but because that would open a can of worms for gasoline car manufacturers. In theory, they might have to recall all their cars and have no replacement.
They'd be stuck in recall-timeloop. The share (and options) price had become a momentum play and attracted related algo bots and all sorts of attention, rather than an investment by those who believe that electric cars are the future. However, over time, the understanding of electric cars will increase in numbers, and confidence, sufficient to genuinely support a growing share price reflecting the significance of this "mission". The goal shouldn't be to make it a momentum play again. (Except it currently probably also is, or was, just in the negative direction.)
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