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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Well, awaiting delivery of my car late December, I already ordered this insureance. And many on the Benelux section of this forum did. So yes, it is for real :)
Tesla / CB jointly produced promotion flyers were on the table in the Tesla store and passed on to me.

Amazing, 2 Euros per day! What a great deal. I was quoted $250/month by GEICO, which ended any dreams of a new Model S.
 
Amazing, 2 Euros per day! What a great deal. I was quoted $250/month by GEICO, which ended any dreams of a new Model S.

That's crazy. I'm in a non-Tesla market and was able to get 2600 eur / year which is 100 eur / month and that's quite a premium on the car because there's no Tesla in Estonia. I'd guess in US you just need to check other insurances as that's way too high a price unless you are a serial car destroyer...
 
To continue somewhat off-topic, but perhaps on-topic in case Tesla soon actually do come out with in-house Insurance in the US: Tesla does not offer Insurance in Norway, and they are not cooperating With an Insurance Company either. There is a big distinction between them partnering up With and Insurance Company (good stuff) or Tesla themselves acting as an insurer (groundbreaking if that were to happen). I can really see the business case for Tesla themselves providing Insurance. Elon could say, just like he said about service, that Insurance is a service to the customers and that the Insurance part of the business will be priced where Tesla does not make Money on it, just breaking even. Talk about stealing the livelyhood under the nose from not only the dealers, the lease providers (sort of) but in this case also the Insurance Companies...

(Not sure why a lot of Words got auto-capitalized in my post, I'm not writing in German).
 
(Not sure why a lot of Words got auto-capitalized in my post, I'm not writing in German).

It does add a certain Gravity to Your Words, though ;-)

To also continue off-pist so to speak, I think it would be fantastic if Tesla would offer car insurance as well. But that might shake one too many political hornet-nests. Big Money is better to have on your side, especially if you are running battle against Big Oil. (If you can drive a wedge in between them...)
 
To continue somewhat off-topic, but perhaps on-topic in case Tesla soon actually do come out with in-house Insurance in the US: Tesla does not offer Insurance in Norway, and they are not cooperating With an Insurance Company either. There is a big distinction between them partnering up With and Insurance Company (good stuff) or Tesla themselves acting as an insurer (groundbreaking if that were to happen). I can really see the business case for Tesla themselves providing Insurance. Elon could say, just like he said about service, that Insurance is a service to the customers and that the Insurance part of the business will be priced where Tesla does not make Money on it, just breaking even.

This is a good idea. A Tesla Insurance would be very useful also in Italy where the Insurances foresee only the so called "fire and theft" insurance meaning to say that you cannot have only the "theft" insurance without including also the "fire" insurance. So this means that in Italy we wouldn't have any discount because the Model S is insured by Tesla for fire risks.
 
Not only is he using statistics generated by other people - as is obviously cited in the blog post - you seem to be leaving out your own apparent 96% of ICE fires which are apparently spontaneous and not caused by collision, of which Tesla has, of course, had zero. So if there is less overall risk, and less spontaneous risk, and there is risk involved when driving through multiple concrete walls and into a tree but the occupants still stay safe, you consider this a safety issue?

That is a key point. A fire is a fire to your insurance company. Regardless how the fire starts, they simply want to know what are the statistical chances of a fire occurring over the life of the vehicle. If overall, the Model S is much less the ICE cars, they won't be concerned. And to be honest, if it is more likely to occur on the open road and not in your garage, that's probably a big plus.

Same goes for the NHTSA, however, they care more about injuries from the resulting fire. So far the Model S has a perfect record in this regard. So if the this type of fire has a very low chance of resulting in an injury then I'm sure they will not issue any sort of recall.

BEV's are a completely different type of vehicle, and have completely different types of failure modes. A lot will be learned over the next couple of years as more BEV's are on the road.
 
Same goes for the NHTSA, however, they care more about injuries from the resulting fire. So far the Model S has a perfect record in this regard. So if the this type of fire has a very low chance of resulting in an injury then I'm sure they will not issue any sort of recall.

Agree 100%. To this concern I would like to add that maybe the NHTSA could also recognize that the warning system of the Model S to detect damages to the battery pack is a very useful safety tool. So IMO the NHTSA could also order that it be installed on all new electric cars having the battery pack at their bottom side.
Of course I am not an expert of safety systems for electric cars but to me this looks like a good idea. Just my opinion.
 
That is a key point. A fire is a fire to your insurance company. Regardless how the fire starts, they simply want to know what are the statistical chances of a fire occurring over the life of the vehicle. If overall, the Model S is much less the ICE cars, they won't be concerned. And to be honest, if it is more likely to occur on the open road and not in your garage, that's probably a big plus.

I will actually have to disagree with you here. An insurance company would much rather pay to fix a car than to fix a person, so all accidents are not created equal. A safer car is going to be cheaper to insure, all things considered, because it's going to cost the insurance company less overall if they don't have to pay medical bills or lifetime pain and suffering or whatever else and just have to pay to fix a car - which, with this recent warranty change, they will have to pay even less to fix because Tesla will absorb the costs of this very rare event happening again. So the insurance company cares about passenger safety just as much as the NHTSA does, and in both cases, we're dealing with the gold standard so far. If the market were only as rational as the insurance companies, which literally care about nothing other than numbers, then there would be zero issue at the moment.
 
Found this while reading about bitcoins, but it seems to apply here as well.

BZWVEj-CMAA7B9n.jpg

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bove-600-on-hopes-of-d-c-blessing-china-buzz/
 
Now multiple outlets are reporting that NHTSA says that Tesla didn't ask for Model S investigation.

"But NHTSA Administrator David Strickland told a House panel Tuesday that Tesla didn’t request an investigation and that the agency had made an independent decision to open an investigation into 13,100 Model S vehicles after two battery fires were reported since early October in the United States.“Investigations are independent,” Strickland told The Detroit News in an interview after the hearing. “We have never — in my recollection, before I got to NHTSA (as a Senate staffer) or as administrator — have actually had an automaker ask for a formal investigation, but it causes a couple of implications: If a manufacturer asks me or asks the agency for a formal investigation, you’ve already made a determination that you may have a defect that imposes an unreasonable risk to safety. ... I don’t think that would ever happen.”


From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131119/AUTO01/311190095#ixzz2l8bEwiNU

Not good is Elon starts saying this that are provably not correct.



- - - Updated - - -

Not only is he using statistics generated by other people - as is obviously cited in the blog post - you seem to be leaving out your own apparent 96% of ICE fires which are apparently spontaneous and not caused by collision, of which Tesla has, of course, had zero. So if there is less overall risk, and less spontaneous risk, and there is risk involved when driving through multiple concrete walls and into a tree but the occupants still stay safe, you consider this a safety issue?

And if you're so convinced that these statistics are wrong, why not present your own? How are you going to do the math on that one? Do you know how many collisions there have been with road debris which haven't resulted in an incident? How are you going to sort these collisions, by size or geometry of object? Is your denominator any bigger than two? Because, you know, having a two in the denominator leads to some rather silly statistics.

As for tarnishing electric vehicle reputation, Tesla had to deal with years of "Volt fire" and "Fisker fire" nonsense (which were, I repeat, both nonsense), and now you think they're trying to drag everyone else down? Tesla is the name in EVs, and Tesla is the reason the Volt and Leaf even exist in the first place (by explicit statement from the CEOs of those companies). Of course what happens to Tesla affects EVs.
I have posted references in other threads and didn't want to repeat too often.

www.usfa.fema.gov—v13i11.pdf
page 6. "Collisions, as a factor contributing to ignition, resulted in 4 percent of all highway vehicle fires"

The majority of other fires are not
necessarily spontaneous, i.e. just sitting in a garage. They're typically while the car is running, flammable liquids spilled onto hot components. Thats why vehicle age makes a big difference.

If you factor in just 4% of ICE fires from collision into Elon's stats, you end up with 3-5x greater risk of a fire from a collision of a Model S than an average ICE. 4% means that 1 in 25 ICE fires are from a collision. All the Model S fires have been from a collision. 1/4.69 chance of any fire in a Model S vs. ICE. But factor in 1/25 ICE fires from collision = 1/4.69 divided by 1/25 = 25/4.69 = 5.33 times higher risk of a fire from collision compared to an ICE vehicle.

Apparently NHTSA agrees there's an unusually high risk and has launched an investigation.
Apparently Tesla doesn't see an easy fix other than raising the car, otherwise they would have already done it.

In every other post I've made about Volt's having zero fires I add the caveat except for ONE fire weeks after a crash test, with the car on its side, where GM proactively reinforced the battery. The LEAF has traveled 3x as many miles as the Model S with zero fires. It was even in a forest fire where the car burned, but the battery did not.

If its an issue with the battery chemistry, thats not something not easily changed. I had hoped they could just use a steel cover instead of aluminum, but apparently Tesla doesn't think thats a worthwhile change.

The Fisker fire was not nonsense. It was a real spontaneous fire risk not from a collision. All fires are not created equal. Can't lump all EVs together as either safe or not.
 
Now multiple outlets are reporting that NHTSA says that Tesla didn't ask for Model S investigation.

"But NHTSA Administrator David Strickland told a House panel Tuesday that Tesla didn’t request an investigation and that the agency had made an independent decision to open an investigation into 13,100 Model S vehicles after two battery fires were reported since early October in the United States.“Investigations are independent,” Strickland told The Detroit News in an interview after the hearing. “We have never — in my recollection, before I got to NHTSA (as a Senate staffer) or as administrator — have actually had an automaker ask for a formal investigation, but it causes a couple of implications: If a manufacturer asks me or asks the agency for a formal investigation, you’ve already made a determination that you may have a defect that imposes an unreasonable risk to safety. ... I don’t think that would ever happen.”


From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131119/AUTO01/311190095#ixzz2l8bEwiNU

Not good is Elon starts saying this that are provably not correct.


thanks for posting this!

I'm curious what the heck this first sentence means from the news article:

"NHTSA’s preliminary analysis resume was dated Friday. Musk said in a Twitter posting that the same day “Tesla VP of Regulatory Affairs, Jim Chen, invited NHTSA senior staff to conduct a review of Model S.”

Preliminary analysis RESUME? What's this mean?! Typo?

Also, The article/interview didn't say when we should expect a report from NHTSA... Anyone know timeframe?
 

The media really love to show attention grabbing B-roll of the first fire in which firemen treated it as a gasoline fire which caused the flames to greatly amplify. Of course they don’t bother to explain that.

That aggressively negative Herb seemed to be reaching for and inventing arguments. His final complaint that warranting against fire damage will hurt the bottom line is ludicrous. So far only three cars have sustained fire damage, and even if total wrecks, then replacing those cars and perhaps a few more at manufacturer’s cost is hardly a bump in the bottom line. Elon and his team have undoubtedly evaluated the costs and benefits of the expanded warranty. They realize that the policy could greatly enhance sales by reinforcing consumer confidence.
 
So far only three cars have sustained fire damage, and even if total wrecks, then replacing those cars and perhaps a few more at manufacturer’s cost is hardly a bump in the bottom line.

I suspect that Tesla may only be replacing 2 cars, not 3, so it will not even be a small bump for them. It's not clear to me that the Model S in the Mexico incident wasn't already totaled by smashing through a concrete wall and crashing into a tree before catching on fire.
 
Elon Musk Is Playing With Fire — and Tesla May Get Badly Burned

Good article. Another story reporting that Tesla didn't request the NHTSA investigation. Also mentions the questionable odds stated by Elon about fire risk. And brings up a good point about the recall risk being greater for Tesla than others. 1 car and issue is the core technology. I worry that Elon is saying these things because they've decided there is no easy fix.
 
Elon Musk Is Playing With Fire — and Tesla May Get Badly Burned

Good article. Another story reporting that Tesla didn't request the NHTSA investigation. Also mentions the questionable odds stated by Elon about fire risk. And brings up a good point about the recall risk being greater for Tesla than others. 1 car and issue is the core technology. I worry that Elon is saying these things because they've decided there is no easy fix.


You say it's a good article, and then go on to summarize why it's a bad article?

And a fix? Fix for what? Greatly reduced risk of occupant injury? You want them to make the car less safe or something?
 
Elon Musk Is Playing With Fire — and Tesla May Get Badly Burned

Good article. Another story reporting that Tesla didn't request the NHTSA investigation. Also mentions the questionable odds stated by Elon about fire risk. And brings up a good point about the recall risk being greater for Tesla than others. 1 car and issue is the core technology. I worry that Elon is saying these things because they've decided there is no easy fix.

These 'sensational fires' will soon be a non-issue. Bears are running out of time and hanging onto every last piece of FUD they can. Soon there will be enough Teslas on the road and enough miles driven to show the superior safety to the masses. Even if there are dozens of battery fires there will likely still be ZERO (or close to zero) injuries or deaths despite this and the crashes Teslas have been in.
where as the same amount of brand new ICE cars and miles driven would have resulted in many deaths (fire or no fire).
Ths is the most important stat and will be framed in the media soon enough, I hope anyone short the stock is ready for those sets to soon start sinking in.

Im selling tons of puts now while they're expensive, it's time to make money!!
 
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