Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[brianman]

Karnack the magnificent will tell you about the future as soon as it happens.

For the younger audience, it's probably time to introduce them:
carnac johnny carson - YouTube

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I feel like this has now gotten out of hand... There is no reason the stock should be taking such a beating right now.

A certain vegetable comes to mind.

 

[c041v]

As many others have said, patience is key.

The more I learn about this company, the more I'm inclined to hold on for a very long time. The daily fluctuations are costly and frustrating, but that's a fact of life in holding this stock.

 

[jeffro01]

Fair enough, I got into it in the low $50s so it's not like I'm loosing money... Still though it's depressing to see such a negative number in my E*Trade account for the day. Such is life I suppose, I have no reason to get out so I'll stay in as usual...

Jeff

 

[ShortSlaver]

Wasn't even paying attention but the whole market really tanked in the last hours. S&P down almost 1.5%.

Great month all around with a bad couple days at the end.

Monday will be interesting...

 

[Curt Renz]

9:47 am: After seeing a recap of his test-drive on "Squawk on the Street", Cramer said, "The stock is a cult stock and it's really difficult to figure out where it can go. When you get behind the wheel, you want to get behind the stock. I'm trying to distinguish that. I'm saying that's not the right thing to do."
"I can totally understand why someone that test drives a Tesla wants to buy the stock, because it's about as cool of a thing as I have seen."

He may have realized that by providing a rave review of the car but not the stock, he might influence the share price to dip under $100. That would make it more attractive for him to eventually buy shares and recommend his viewers do the same, especially after he made it clear to his audience that he thinks the car is really cool.

 

[ckessel]

It's still up week on week. It was crazy-go-nuts over the last 8-9 days, going from sub-$90 and peaking at $115. The fact it's given back 2/3rds of that only looks bad today. Back up a bit and squint and things still look pretty spiffy.

 

[callmesam]

It's still up week on week. It was crazy-go-nuts over the last 8-9 days, going from sub-$90 and peaking at $115. The fact it's given back 2/3rds of that only looks bad today. Back up a bit and squint and things still look pretty spiffy.

+1

If you are making money on the gyrations of the market, you're going to make yourself sick some days.

 

[mitch672]

Here's what's important to remember: in 3 or 4 years, assuming Tesla does well and releases the 3rd Gen model, and it's almost as awesome as the Model S (can't imagine it will be any better, just less expensive and smaller), what will TSLA be worth? $200? $300? Possibly even higher, as they may have licensed their drivetrain/battery/Supercharger technology to other manufacturers by then, they could be bringing in more from licensing fee's than building cars. Unfortunately, what goes up, also comes down, there is no direct path to a $43 billion valuation without some bumps along the way.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I am not an expert but the decrease of the stock price is normal according to me. We must realize that new stock has been put on the market by Tesla lately and in such a situation the stock price should have lowered. On the contrary it raised meaning a very good situation for Tesla stock. Now the price is lowering a little bit. It's normal. It should have already lowered. Told by a not expert.

 

[Causalien]

Gap closed today. A good day. If this makes you sick to the stomach. Reduce your exposure, your stock emotional maturity might not be able to handle it, causing you to make a rash and wrong decision. Especially with a stock that has both IV and HV above 1.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Gap closed today. A good day. If this makes you sick to the stomach. Reduce your exposure, your stock emotional maturity might not be able to handle it, causing you to make a rash and wrong decision. Especially with a stock that has both IV and HV above 1.

I was thinking about feeling sick but I actually think I'm excited! We are at (or on our way to?) a nice buying opportunity If I hadn't reduced my exposure yesterday and got some cash available for buying more at a lower price I would probably be sick right now, haha.

The question now is when to buy back in. I'm thinking around 93 or 94 would be good for half my cash, and somewhere in the 80s for the rest if it keeps going down. If on Monday it holds where it is at right now I'm buying in here. Maybe it will just go straight back up on Monday and I'll miss my chance

 

[dmckinstry]

What just happened?
Loads of sells

I just visualize a cartoon of lemmings.

 

[Causalien]

I was thinking about feeling sick but I actually think I'm excited! We are at (or on our way to?) a nice buying opportunity If I hadn't reduced my exposure yesterday and got some cash available for buying more at a lower price I would probably be sick right now, haha. The question now is when to buy back in. I'm thinking around 93 or 94 would be good for half my cash, and somewhere in the 80s for the rest if it keeps going down. If on Monday it holds where it is at right now I'm buying in here. Maybe it will just go straight back up on Monday and I'll miss my chance

It's all a big IF. I am kind of sad that the TA signal isn't stronger. Actually the TA signal is strong for both side. On one side, you got a stock that passes 100 for the first time. Which is one of the more important mantra of TA. On the other hand, you got gap must be filled mantra that got fulfilled, but at the same time bring about the reversal of the $100 mantra. A failed mantra is just as strong of a TA. Question is, which one is true? I honestly wouldn't mind a sideway stock for a while.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

I wouldn't mind a 1-digit stock for a while :smile: , even if it's a 2-minute fluke.

 

[aznt1217]

Lots of short sentiment after today. As the day went on they added fuel to the fire. Many went from long to short for next week and probably loaded up on shorting for next week. Dangerous short term game these guys are playing. First ever Shareholder meeting next week should provide great insight and even more detail on future and results. Then ~2 weeks after is the in person announcement. In person announcements are always interesting.

Watched my account today and was disappointed to say the least, but bulls need to sleep, drink, and eat before running again. I'm getting the same feeling I had before I chickened out on apple when it was $80. Not missing it this time.

 

[touda78]

I've been a long for a week ish, started at $97, was in great mood when it topped at 110ish and started feeling sick on the way daw, sold at 99 to keep a profit and will re-evaluate the market on monday and buy even more shares

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Lots of short sentiment after today. As the day went on they added fuel to the fire. Many went from long to short for next week and probably loaded up on shorting for next week. Dangerous short term game these guys are playing. First ever Shareholder meeting next week should provide great insight and even more detail on future and results. Then ~2 weeks after is the in person announcement. In person announcements are always interesting.

Watched my account today and was disappointed to say the least, but bulls need to sleep, drink, and eat before running again. I'm getting the same feeling I had before I chickened out on apple when it was $80. Not missing it this time.

I would have liked an end-of-week close above $100, just for the novelty of it, but this week's insanity is just noise over the long haul.

The shorts have already burnt 2 billion dollars, and I agree that if people are moving to short positions again, they are only playing with fire.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Technical analysis is pseudoscientific snake oil. Stay away from it. It's like reading tea leaves. If anyone could predict anything off analysis of the stock charts, they would already have created a computer program to do it to every stock in the world and earn as much money as they cared to.

Tesla's true valuation is the present value of all their future profits, which is unknown. It will take years, probably more than a decade, for the stock market to have enough information to make even a remotely educated guess for this number. Until then, you can either hold on or get out. The current valuation is a weighted number based on the probability of the company becoming a certain size.

If you believe that Tesla has more than a 50% chance of becoming as big as General Motors in terms of profits, the true valuation would be more than 200, so just hold on until the price reaches this number. Just find some probabilities you're comfortable with and hold on. You'll save a lot of money in commision and taxes while eliminating the risk that you are out when the big moves happen. There is more than one user of this forum that's still waiting for an entry point and kicking himself for missing the ride up from 45 to 90+.

 

[Causalien]

Technical analysis is pseudoscientific snake oil. Stay away from it. It's like reading tea leaves. If anyone could predict anything off analysis of the stock charts, they would already have created a computer program to do it to every stock in the world and earn as much money as they cared to.

This quote is funny, at least to me, because they did... and I did... Look, I used to think the same, but those of us who uses TA knows that it is just a % chance of coming true. Whether or not you use any TA is up to you. I've talked to a lot of Fundamental analysts (I myself being one) and I often ask why they buy and sell at certain point. What they don't realize is that they are basing their decisions on TA. Some believe firmly in either camp. I am a believer that you need to know both camp... + HFT because that's about 70% of the trades nowadays.

 

[DaveT]

My guess is that Cramer will make the following points:
- Test drive went great. It's a great car.
- Tons of people love the car.
- Doesn't know how to value the company (cult leader w/lots of believers).
- Won't suggest buying or shorting TSLA. Stock is so high it's risky.

Cramer featured Tesla on Mad Money this afternoon:
Cramer Wowed by Tesla Test Drive

Underwhelming, and basically said what I expected him to say.